Sentences with phrase «within uncertainty ranges»

Ken, No, I'm just regressing the Historical (All - forcings) forcing time series on the forcing time series for the constituent individual forcings.If they have been correctly included in Historical forcing, the coefficients should contain one within their uncertainty ranges, as they do except for land use forcing where they are consistent with zero.

«The three papers come to perhaps different numbers, but we're all within uncertainty ranges, well within them, and lends confidence to the statement that there was a significant human influence on the amount of precipitation that was produced by Hurricane Harvey,» he said.

Warmer periods prior to the 20th century are within the uncertainty range given in the TAR.»

«The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 non-overlapping decades with trends in ENSO - adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999 - 2008 trend -LRB--0.05 to +0.05 C per decade).»

This can also be seen in the final figure from Morice et al 2012 (detail here), in which HadCRUT4 is at the top of the pack over recent years, although GISTEMP and NCDC both lie within the uncertainty range.

This is within the uncertainty range of the observed rate of warming (0.15 ± 0.08 °C) per decade since 1990, and very close to the central estimate.

Regarding variability, the ISPM fails to mention that the IPCC found that the larger «natural climatic variability» is almost all in the direction of cooler temperatures, relative to «previous estimations», for the past millenium: «The additional variability shown in some new studies [since the Third Assesment Report] implies mainly cooler temperatures (predominantly in the 12th to 14th, 17th and 19th centuries), and only one new reconstruction suggests slightly warmer conditions (in the 11th century, but well within the uncertainty range indicated in the TAR).»

I acknowledge that 2011 fell within the uncertainty range of the model estimates, althought the range was 0.8 C wide.

When accounting for actual GHG emissions, the IPCC average «Best» model projection of 0.2 °C per decade is within the uncertainty range of the observed rate of warming (0.15 ± 0.08 °C) per decade since 1990.

Willis — I suppose you can make the «within the uncertainty range» argument, but that still suggests that one of the best values of either the UAH trend or the Watts et al. trend is pretty far off.

Lewis's estimate for this budget, he says, lies «well within the uncertainty range» of the IPCC, meaning it's not outside their estimates.

The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 nonoverlapping decades with trends in ENSO - adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999 — 2008 trend (− 0.05 ° to 0.05 °C decade — 1).

«Lag correlations from 20 — 10 kyr ago suggest that the modelled global temperature lags CO2 concentration by 120 yr, which is within the uncertainty range of the proxy - based lag.»

Within this uncertainty range, this reconstruction suggests that the pronounced decline in summer Arctic sea ice cover that began in the late twentieth century is unprecedented in both magnitude and duration when compared with the range of variability of the previous roughly 1,450 years.

As long as the temperatures are within the uncertainty range of the warming trend, there is simply no reason to say, that the warming trend has stopped.

[15] A crude revised central estimate is 3.4 °C, being the median ECS of the 7 models (CGCM3.1, HadCM3, CanESM2, IPSL - CM5A, MRI - CGCM3, NCAR - CAM5, NorESM1 - M) whose seasonal variability lies within the uncertainty range for the observational estimate, after substituting the Brient & Schneider consistency assessment for the 4 models where if differs radically.

Not exact matches

A comparison of natural - gas - burning versus diesel - burning buses gave the emissions edge to diesel, which accounted for 12 percent fewer emissions, within the range of uncertainty.

Even though the data from PAMELA cover a different energy range from the ATIC signal, Wefel believes that «there is no contradiction between ATIC and PAMELA, at least to within the uncertainties on the presently available data», he told New Scientist.

«Although the different estimates of OHCA (ocean heat content anomaly) produce seemingly different estimates of interannual ocean heating rate variability, these differences are all within the range of observational uncertainty.

It is not all that earthshaking that the numbers in Schmittner et al come in a little low: the 2.3 ºC is well within previously accepted uncertainty, and three of the IPCC AR4 models used for future projections have a climate sensitivity of 2.3 ºC or lower, so that the range of IPCC projections already encompasses this possibility.

The 16 planetary candidates have estimated diameters within range of being super-Earths (1.26 to 2.0 times Earth's diameter), given error margins ranging from 25 to 35 percent due to the uncertainty in the size of their host star and of the «depth» of the observed transits (decrease in stellar luminosity) across the surface of the star.

If you want to do a more precise analysis, fine — you'd need to properly include the uncertainty ranges and you would come to the same conclusion as me — as far as one can tell within uncertainty, the non-CO2 anthropogenic forcings approximately balance.

*** «Perhaps concern over «uncertainty» in complex, adaptive, open systems should be investigated by inductive generalization from observations of the dynamics of a wide range of such systems: ecosystems, social systems, computer systems, immune systems, economic systems... It is curious that the following things are never admitted as «facts about the world,» but here goes: the observer would note of all of these systems that they undergo oscillations within apparent parameters and occasionally flip into new regimes; they often demonstrate novel emergence; and that increased forcing, whether of native elements or exotic ones, increases the rates of oscillation and catastrophic shifts, sometimes after a quieter period of sub-threshold build - up.

At the same time, there are particular areas of uncertainty, or of lower precision, that give rise to some ranges and degrees (within limits) of uncertainty when it comes to making forecasts of the degree of warming.

These accelerations are larger than the acceleration observed in the altimetry and GMSL reconstruction over the period 1990 — 2010, but are still within the (66 % confidence) uncertainty range (see Table 1 in ref.

So after considering all of that, the estimated current «surface» temperature produces an estimated effective radiant return energy from the atmosphere of about 345Wm - 3 + / - 9 called DWLR which, had the average effective radiant energy of the oceans been used, ~ 334Wm - 2 would have created less confusion and still have been within a more realistic uncertainty range of + / - 17 Wm - 2.

Thorne claims that he is certain that it is exists within the uncertainties error range.

The IPCC gives a wide range of uncertainty, without any guaranty that the true value lies within this range.

Complexity of the climate system and uncertainty surrounding input data preclude extremely accurate predictions, but they are not incompatible with an ability to approximate real world outcomes within a range narrow enough to justify future planning on the basis of reasonable probabilities.

It's not very good for saying «in 2050, the temperature will be X», but it is useful for determining what range the average temperature is likely to be within over, say, a 30 - year period centered on the date in question (with much uncertainty) given certain starting conditions and certain inputs and changes in forcing over time, and.

Because of the many uncertainties involved, any estimate of climate sensitivity comes with a range, a lower and upper limit within which the real value could reasonably lie.

The panel was asked to assess whether these apparently conflicting surface and upper air temperature trends lie within the range of uncertainty inherent in the measurements and, if they are judged to lie outside that range, to identify the most probable reason (s) for the differences.

However, when projection uncertainty is taken into account, as well as it can be, the observed value is within an expected range of values.

Because this is a log - log scale, it is somewhat difficult to eyeball this, and one might argue that this is all within the range of uncertainty of the climate models and the climate models and observations agree «ok.»

And maybe in many applications it is felt more important to have realistic looking posterior PDFs than uncertainty ranges that accurately reflect how likely the true calendar date is to lie within them.

One might (or might not) argue for such a relation if the models were empirically adequate, but given nonlinear models with large systematic errors under current conditions, no connection has been even remotely established for relating the distribution of model states under altered conditions to decision - relevant probability distributions... There may well exist thresholds, or tipping points (Kemp 2005), which lie within this range of uncertainty.

In most cases, these range from about 2 to 4.5 C per doubled CO2 within the context of our current climate — with a most likely value between 2 and 3 C. On the other hand, chapter 9 describes attempts ranging far back into paleoclimatology to relate forcings to temperature change, sometimes directly (with all the attendant uncertainties), and more often by adjusting model parameters to determine the climate sensitivity ranges that allow the models to best simulate data from the past — e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

The observed rate of warming given above is less than half of this simulated rate, and only a few simulations provide warming trends within the range of observational uncertainty.

Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions.

I won't insist on those numbers at all for the split, but I do think 33 - 66 % still is too much uncertainty for the degree of opportunity cost associated if science accurately hits the target range but is off within the range near the margin.

The words «uncertainty» or «debate» are not used in the statement, leaving no wiggle room for them to pretend that this statement accounts for the range of perspectives in the AGU (or even within the writing committee), or the uncertainties.

let's take this to an extreme... suppose that internal variability is zero... then the «within group» s.d. is zero... suppose that models agree pretty well with each other and observations fall within the tight band of model projections... then by steve's method you create the average of models and call it a model... with an s.d. of zero... show that the model falls outside the observational s.d.... proclaim that the model fails... claim that this is a test of modelling... hence extrapolate that all models fail... even though observations fall slap bang in the model range... this result is nonsensical... per tco it isn't how models are used... where's structural uncertainty?

I mean you could define the uncertainty of an «ensemble mean» as the «average of the within - model standard deviations over all the models», but comparing that with observed range wouldn't tell you anything about the proportion of models whose range of uncertainty falls outside the uncertainty of observations.

But if we ignore all the science on impacts and only assume that Earth will warm within a particular range in response to CO2 emissions I think we still have reason for concern because uncertainty about the impacts (what and how much) could still mean that severe and even unforeseen consequences are possible.

Add the facts in trend: The oceans are acidifying, The climate has already shifted 4 degrees of latitude in the past 30 years; the Arctic will likely be virtually ice free during the summer melt within the decade, all the uncertainty ranges are positive and none of them are negative, CO2 is plant food, but what does that mean when the oxygen levels are dropping, the Hoover dam is supposed to shut down in 2023 due to no water (latitudinal shift), the Yangtze in China is getting very low, etc. etc..

A secondary result is that caution is required when trying to draw conclusions about any differences between the models and the observations, whether it be to identify internal cycles of the climate system or problems in the models, because the differences that we do see are mostly within the range of uncertainty of the observations.

In contrast, some model results do appear to fall well within the range of uncertainties of the observations.

However, NSIDC also indicates that any differences less than + / - 50,000 square kilometers fall within the range of uncertainty.

Uncertainty within the private sector in turn impacts on core public authorities, which rely on private corporations and voluntary organisations to support a range of functions.

Amid this uncertainty, bitcoin prices have fluctuated within a reasonably tight range today, trading between $ 1,216.31 and $ 1,247.26, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).