As for the points Ferdinand makes in his (large) comment, I still contend that Ferdinand is misinterpreting
the work on climate sensitivity to various forcings, and the need to make the sensitivity inference consistent with what we know about the physics of the system.
Not exact matches
Sure, there might be a few papers that take
climate sensitivity as a given and somehow try to draw conclusions about the impact
on the
climate from that... But, I hardly think that these are swamping the number of papers trying to determine what the
climate sensitivity is, studying if the water vapor feedback is
working as expected, etc., etc..
New paper mixing «
climate feedback parameter» with
climate sensitivity... «
climate feedback parameter was estimated to 5.5 ± 0.6 W m − 2 K − 1» «Another issue to be considered in future
work should be that the large value of the
climate feedback parameter according to this
work disagrees with much of the literature
on climate sensitivity (Knutti and Hegerl, 2008; Randall et al., 2007; Huber et al., 2011).
One of his reasons to claim that «the risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it» is that he uses a very low value for the
climate sensitivity based
on non-reviewed «studies», while ignoring the peer - reviewed
work.
Now, forgetting entirely the more complex issue of «
climate sensitivity» and focusing only
on how tiny, minute concentrations of CO2 can make a difference to global temps — one of the oft - repeated and simplistic denialist memes — is there a simple desktop experiment to demonstrate how that can
work?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Robby Müller's
work on Saint Jack was so unostentatious in its
sensitivity to place,
climate, hour of day or night, and the very temperature of colors, it immediately suggested itself as a model of the sort of miraculous cinematography never noticed by A.S.C. Oscar nominators.
We'll also dig into some of his peer reviewed
work, notably the recent paper by Spencer and Braswell
on climate sensitivity, and his paper
on tropical clouds which is widely misquoted as supporting Lindzen's IRIS conjecture regarding stabilizing cloud feedback.
And now,
work on clouds will narrow the
climate sensitivity range.
One of his reasons to claim that «the risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it» is that he uses a very low value for the
climate sensitivity based
on non-reviewed «studies», while ignoring the peer - reviewed
work.
[T] here have now been several recent papers showing much the same — numerous factors including: the increase in positive forcing (CO2 and the recent
work on black carbon), decrease in estimated negative forcing (aerosols), combined with the stubborn refusal of the planet to warm as had been predicted over the last decade, all makes a high
climate sensitivity increasingly untenable.
Now, forgetting entirely the more complex issue of «
climate sensitivity» and focusing only
on how tiny, minute concentrations of CO2 can make a difference to global temps — one of the oft - repeated and simplistic denialist memes — is there a simple desktop experiment to demonstrate how that can
work?
IPCC
Working Group I — Workshop
on Climate Sensitivity, Workshop Report École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France 26 — 29 July, 2004 pg 11
Here is another interesting comment: https://judithcurry.com/2012/06/25/questioning-the-forest-et-al-2006-
sensitivity-study/#comment-212952 This gives information
on other
work that suggests
climate sensitivity may be significantly lower than the IPCC AR4 consensus estimate.
In this
work the equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) is estimated based
on observed near - surface temperature change from the instrumental record, changes in ocean heat content and detailed RF time series.
In this
work, we use a standard linear definition of
climate sensitivity, which we state here, and go
on to show how it can be derived from observational data.»
People who disagree with my
work have told me so in forums (you can consider this also as peer review) and I have evolved my opinion eg
on climate sensitivity.
Don't miss current discussions
on further
work by Nic Lewis
on climate sensitivity and the IPCC estimates.
Nic's
work is putting a number
on transient
climate sensitivity and comparing it to ECS, a non starter.
Contribution from
working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in
Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle var
Climate Projections of near - term
climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle var
climate show small
sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial
sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially
on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.
Plass was one of the first to revisit Arrhenius's
work since Callendar, however his calculations of
climate sensitivity to CO2 were also wrong, because, like Callendar, he focussed
on the surface radiation budget, rather than the top of the atmosphere.
It would seem the GWPF is far more confident in its conclusions about
climate sensitivity than the scientists
on whose
work its estimates are derived.
The probability distributions give a most likely estimate of 3 °C of warming for a doubling of CO2, and all pragmatic scientists tend to
work on the basis that the
climate sensitivity is not drastically more than that.
Annan's own
work has focused
on constraining the range of
climate sensitivity values.
The
Working Group III IPCC report [
on mitigation which the Economist used in its most recent attempt to misinform
on climate sensitivity] is no where near final, the final draft has not even been produced yet.
CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP =
Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS =
Working Group
on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land - Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint
Working Group
on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF =
Working Group
on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in
Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World
Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges •
Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and
Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM =
Working Group
on Coupled Modelling WGSIP =
Working Group
on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction
Energy budget estimates of equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate
climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient
climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate
climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate
Climate Change Fifth Assessment
Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the
climate climate system.
Our choices for
climate sensitivity (2.5 K) and glacial maxima cooling (− 4 K) are both
on the low side for such properties in other
work cited above.
The TSD purports to rely
on IPCC
work as a basis for a supposed «
sensitivity» of
climate to increasing atmospheric C02, but fails to mention that the most recent IPCC report completely undermines any basis for determining
climate sensitivity with the following statement: «No best estimate for equilibrium
climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement
on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.»
Since an assortment of the scientists Matt cites have already written the WSJ to complain of his gross misrepresentation of their
work, his views
on climate sensitivity seem damp as a squib in a Yorkshire coal mine, of which the Ridley estate owns several:
«
Working on the IPCC, there was a lot of discussion of
climate sensitivity since it's so important for our future,» said Shindell, who was lead author of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report's chapter
on Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing.