The following figure provides a summary of past and
future world coal production in energy terms based on a detailed country - by - country analysis.
The largest uncertainty in projecting
future world coal production is determining whether such reserve reductions might occur in other regions, or whether reserves could increase given substantial real price increases.
David Rutledge, an engineering professor at the California Institute of Technology who
studies world coal production, said the IPCC's «business as usual» scenario is unrealistic because it essentially assumes that growth of fossil fuels like coal will continue apace, which is unlikely.
The story of
world coal production after 2025 is essentially the story of the struggle to replace stabilized and then declining Chinese coal production.
From 1985 to 2000,
world coal production essentially stagnated, growing slowly in the late 1980s and declining gradually during the 1990s as natural gas and other sources displaced coal.
Forecasting
future world coal production is a complex task, incorporating considerations of the amounts and the qualities of known and projected coal reserves, the ability to increase coal production capacity and the growth of coal demand.
Underground mining currently accounts for a bigger share of
world coal production than opencast; although in several important coal producing countries surface mining is more common.
All in all, the companies listed in the GCEL represent over 88 % of
world coal production and 86 % of the world's coal - fired capacity.
Assuming that 10 % of
world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few mega barrels per day.
Because China currently dominates
world coal production, the path of future world coal production will be dominated by the path of Chinese coal production.
From 1950 to 2005,
world coal production of all grades (anthracite, bituminous, subbituminous and lignite) grew substantially, but irregularly (table 3).
The most significant aspect of these scenarios is not the peaking of
world coal production, but the immense amounts of coal estimated to be produced in the 45 years from 2006 to 2050.
These two areas — China and Wyoming, which provided 46 per cent of
world coal production in 2007 and 77 per cent of the increase in world coal production from 2000 to 2007 — have only 35 — 45 years of production at current rates of production and levels of reserves.
The second key argument is that
world coal production has grown substantially (more than 40 %) since 2000.
The conventional wisdom is that
world coal production will continue to grow over the next several decades.
World coal production, 1950 — 2005 (million tonnes).