The 30 -
year NOMINAL rates were 4.9 % for no failures, 5.0 % for one failure and 6.7 % for a minimum of 6 (actually, 7) failures.
The 30 -
year NOMINAL rates were 4.4 % for no failures, 4.5 % for one failure and 7.1 % for 6 failures.
Isn't the 80
year nominal rate of return nearly 10 %?
Not exact matches
In many cases, acceleration should lower their costs, as
nominal interest
rates will likely be higher two
years from now than they are today, and idle construction crews in Alberta are relatively abundant.
«A decrease in
nominal GDP growth resulting solely from a one -
year, 1 - percentage - point decrease in the
rate of GDP inflation» reduces the budgetary balance by $ 1.9 billion.
The spread on the
nominal less inflation - indexed
rates for both the five - and 10 -
year maturities remains above 2.0 % — a sign that the crowd expects that hard data on inflation will hold at or above the Fed's target in the near term.
This is clearly not good, because the
nominal interest
rate can not be adjusted in response to any shocks that hit the economy over the next 70
years.
While stocks have a terminal value beyond a 10 -
year period, the effects of interest
rates and
nominal growth on those projections largely cancel out because higher
nominal GDP growth over a given 10 -
year horizon is correlated with both higher interest
rates and generally lower market valuations at the end of that period.
At longer horizons, the 6.3 % growth
rate that we've assumed for
nominal GDP over the coming
years will begin to bail investors out given enough time, and as a result, our projection for 10 -
year S&P 500
nominal total returns peeks its head up above zero, at about 2.4 % annually from current levels.
Most importantly, with
nominal GDP growth
rates having dropped from 20 % to 8 - 9 % the greatest of all the distortions, the interest
rate distortion, has been the one most dramatically to adjust in the past three
years.
In the last
year or so, however, the official lending
rate has risen to 7.5 % and
nominal GDP has dropped to 8 - 9 % (and just under 8 % in the first quarter of 2014).
For many
years nominal GDP growth in China was 18 - 21 % and the official lending
rate was around 7 %.
At a federal - provincial finance ministers» meeting in December 2012, the Finance Minister announced that, starting in 2017 - 18, the
rate of growth in the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) would be reduced from 6 per cent per
year to grow in line with a three -
year moving average in
nominal GDP, with a funding guarantee to grow by at least three per cent per
year.
While there are some signs of recognition such as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral
rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2
years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for global coordination and greater use of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate
nominal GDP growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.
In the 2006 Budget, the government promised to reduce the deficit by $ 3 billion per
year; to reduce the federal debt - to - GDP ratio to 25 per cent by 2012 - 13; to eliminate the total government sector debt (which includes the federal, provincial and local governments as well as the Canada and Quebec pension plans) by 2021; and finally, to keep the growth in program expenses below the
rate of growth in
nominal GDP.
Despite some investors waxing rhapsodic about things like «mass collaboration and sharing enabled by technology and global communications networks,» S&P 500 Index revenues have grown at a
nominal rate of just 3.2 % annually over the past 20
years, and just 1.6 % annually over the past decade, and that includes the benefit of stock buybacks.
Even if the growth
rates of
nominal GDP and U.S. corporate revenues (including foreign revenues) over the coming 20
years match their 4 % growth
rate of the past 20
years, and even if the most reliable valuation measures merely touch their historical norms 20
years from today, the S&P 500 Index two decades from now will trade more than 20 % lower than where it trades today.
At least part of this, however, reflects the winding back of inflation, with a corresponding reduction in the inflation premium built into
nominal interest
rates, which in earlier
years was being consumed — ie retirees were effectively running down their real capital, often without realising it.
This is the difference between the 5 -
year nominal treasury yield and the 5 -
year TIPs yield and is suppose to reflect treasury market's forecast for the average annual inflation
rate over the next five
years.
Historically, those interest
rate and
nominal growth effects have largely offset, which is why Market Cap / GVA has been reliably correlated with actual 10 -
year S&P 500
nominal total returns regardless of the prevailing level of interest
rates.
When the day arrives that you begin taking money from savings to finance your golden
years, you will be worse off if your
nominal returns didn't beat the inflation
rate by a healthy margin.
The private sector economists are surveyed for only a selective number of aggregate economic and financial indicators: real gross domestic product (GDP) growth; GDP inflation,
nominal GDP;, the 3 - month treasury bill
rate;, the 10 -
year government bond
rate;, the unemployment
rate; the, consumer price index; the exchange
rate (US cents / Cdn $); and finally, and U.S. real GDP growth.
(a) Average of
nominal interest
rates on outstanding loans (fixed and variable); pre terms of trade boom average is 1993/94 — 2002/03;
year - ended observation is the June quarter 2016 average (b) Consumer price data exclude interest charges prior to September quarter 1998 and deposit & loan facilities to June quarter 2011, and are adjusted for the tax changes of 1999 — 2000 (c) Pre terms of trade boom average is 1997/98 — 2002/03
If I assume a dividend growth
rate of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500 dividend yield of 4 percent (Hussman says that the dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected
nominal return over ten
years is 2.4 percent annually.
The orange line is the implied inflation
rate, based on the difference between the 10 -
year nominal Treasury yield and the yield on 10 -
year inflation - protected Treasuries.
The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P / E ratio; (2) the current P / E expansion cycle; (3) EV / Sales; (4) EV / EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6) Price / Book as well as the ROE and P / B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7)
nominal 10 -
year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest
rates.
Anyone who looks at
nominal rates is not really looking under the hood, and it's the steep decline in real
rates that's what's kept a lid on the Dollar, which is at a level that's no different than where it was a couple of
years ago.
Looking back over the past 60
years, the level of
nominal growth has been the key to understanding the level of
rates.
While still a robust
rate of increase in an economy in which
nominal incomes are growing at around 6 per cent, this represents a moderate slowdown in the pace of financial intermediation from
rates recorded in the second half of last
year.
During the «Great Moderation» (1987 — 2006), under Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, the trend
rate of growth of final demand, as measured by
nominal final sales to domestic purchasers (FSDP), was 5.4 percent per
year — split into real growth of 3 percent and inflation of 2.4 percent.
The data is unambiguous on current economic conditions - GDP growth in the last quarter of 2015 was a meager 2.11 % with full
year growth of 2.79 % according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); inflation rose sharply to 11.4 % in February with prospects of reaching 12 % by March; capital markets have remained bearish; according to UNCTAD Nigeria's FDI fell by 27.7 % to $ 3.4 billion in 2015, and on current trends may fall even more precipitously in 2016; the de facto exchange
rate of the Naira for most producers and consumers is now N322 / $ even though CBN maintains a
nominal N197 / $ for privileged persons; several economic sectors - construction, government, manufacturing, oil and gas and hotels and restaurants are in recession or barely out of it; government's official foreign reserves is down to $ 27.8 bn; and unemployment and under - employment
rates have worsened 10.4 % and 18.7 % by the end of 2015.
According to Nielsen Bookscan, sales were up 1.65 % in the first quarter of 2015, but this can only be seen as
nominal growth as the official inflation
rate was pegged at 6.41 % last
year, the market size actually decreased when compared to 2014.
From the equation, we can see that the annualized dividend growth
rate is 6.75 % per
year (
nominal).
Despite the sharp rise in inflation expectations, 10 -
year breakevens (the difference between the yield on a
nominal fixed -
rate bond and the real yield on TIPS) remain depressed relative to their long - term history.
This is not how mortgage loans work, as mortgages utilize a
nominal interest
rate: the interest
rate per
year.
The investor received a total of $ 60.90 for the
year, which means that while the
nominal rate was 6 %, the effective
rate was 6.09 %.
In that case, the
rate per period is simply the
nominal annual interest
rate divided by the number of periods per
year.
Your payment is fixed, but milk got more valuable — measured in
nominal dollars — at the
rate of 2 % per
year for 30
years.
If you discontinue it now, you can get the fund value after 5 policy
years and
nominal interest
rate would be provided.
For example, a bond with a face value of $ 1,000 that pays $ 100 per
year has a
nominal yield or coupon
rate of 10 %.
I determined the REAL and
NOMINAL withdrawal
rates for the first failure and the sixth failure for 30 -
year historical sequences beginning in 1921 - 1980 (sixty sequences).
Assuming a safe withdrawal
rate of 3.3 %, this portfolio would provide $ 33,000 of funds available per
year, a very conservative estimate in my mind which should allow for the portfolio to continue to grow and kick off the same
nominal amount indefinitely (and I think Libre and ERN agree with this safe withdrawal estimate).
In real - world situations, such as evaluating the life of a mortgage contract, finding the effective interest
rate requires knowing the principal amount, or the amount to be financed; the
nominal interest
rate; any additional loan fees or charges; the number of times each
year the loan is compounded; and the number of payments to be made each
year.
The formula for the real income of an investment at
year N is: Inflation adjusted dividend income = (initial dividend amount) * -LCB-[1 + (
nominal dividend growth
rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- / -LCB-[1 + (inflation
rate)-RSB- ^ N -RCB- Typically, you would use a
nominal dividend growth
rate of 5.5 % per
year in the absence of other information and 3 % per
year inflation.
I collected additional data with initial dividend yields of 3 %, 4 % and 5 % and
nominal dividend growth
rates of 6 %, 8 % and 10 % per
year.
Here are my findings: Investment A: 3.5 % initial yield with an 8 % per
year nominal growth
rate.
Investment A: 3.5 % initial yield with an 8 % per
year nominal growth
rate.
Here is a summary: Investment A: 3.5 % initial yield with an 8 % per
year nominal growth
rate.
Condition E: Investment A: 3.5 % initial yield with a 10 % per
year nominal growth
rate.
Investment A: 3.5 % initial yield with a 10 % per
year nominal growth
rate.