The bellwether ten -
year Treasury note ended the month yielding 2.3 % and has been in a relatively tight range for several months.
Not exact matches
The 35
year bull market in bonds most likely
ended on July 8, 2016 when the 10
year maturity U.S.
Treasury Note yield hit an all - time low of 1.36 %.
Therefore we expect the decline in interest rate futures, specifically the 10 -
year Treasury Notes and 30 -
year Treasury Bonds to be a temporary effect of speculative exuberance, and for interest rate futures to rally through the
end of the month as the heavily short speculators are forced out of their positions.
By the
end of that month, yields on the 10 -
year Treasury note had climbed by nearly one - half of one percent — yet money continued to flow in to bond funds.
But longer - term rates, as measured by the yield of the 10 -
year Treasury note,
ended 2017 at 2.409 percent, down a touch from 2.446 percent a
year ago.
While rates remained constrained, I had expected the yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note to
end the
year between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent, not 2.25 percent.
This suggests that the determination of the 10 -
Year Treasury Note rate, the sum of the 3 - month
Treasury Bill rate and the yield curve, largely rests on the height of the federal funds rate at the
end of the cycle.
Yields on US 10 -
year Treasury notes continued their rise,
ending the week at 2.42 %, up from 2.38 % a week ago.
The yield on benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes at the
end of trading on Monday, down from 2.85 percent on Friday, the highest level since January 2014.
Treasury yields leapt again yesterday at the long
end, with the 10 -
year note climbing above 3.7 %, its highest close since November.
Over the day, three -
year Treasury notes in the United States lost 0.1 percent to
end at 2.78 percent.
The spread between the yields on the 2 -
year Treasury note and the 10 -
year Treasury note narrowed by 70 basis points from 125 points at the start of 2017 to just 55 points at the
end of 2017.
But by the time stock trading had
ended, the Dow Jones industrial average was down modestly, and the yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgages and other loans, was up only slightly.
The 10 -
year Treasury note did reach 3 % by the
end of 2013 but has promptly fallen ever since to its current level of 1.59 percent.
Interestingly, as it relates to the thesis of this article, the stock market had one of its best performances in 2013 in spite of the 10 -
year Treasury note rising from 1.78 % to 3.04 % by the
end of the
year.
For example, if you have a $ 100
Treasury note with an interest rate of 5 percent; at the
end of the
year, you will get $ 5.00 (5 % of $ 100) in interest.