The million - dollar question Over the past year both Annaly and American Capital Agency's net interest income has fallen, 10 - 2
year Treasury spreads are trending downward, and the Federal Reserve Bank — which controls short - term interest rates — has suggested it will raise rates sometime in 2015.
The BarCap U.S. Corporate High Yield - to - Worst 10 -
year Treasury spread fell from 5.81 to 4.58, while the US 10 - year Treasury yield bottomed out at 1.32 % on July 6.1 Volatility, in the form of VIX, eased during the third quarter, falling from 15.63 to 13.20.1 Although the economy appeared less vibrant in September, a bias toward higher interest rates, a downward slant in high yield spreads and benign volatility were all favorable for investor risk taking.
Not exact matches
«The
spread between the 2 -
year and 10 -
year Treasury is now the tightest it's been since 2007,» said Rob Morgan, chief investment officer at Sethi: «The flattening yield curve in 2007 was a harbinger of the Great Recession of 2008.
U.S. two -
year Treasury yields reached 2.453 percent on Friday, the highest level since September 2008 as the two -
year's
spread versus two -
year German Bunds grew to 302 basis points, the widest in more than three decades.
And now the yield curve is threatening to invert again, with the
spread between 10 - and two -
year Treasury note yields now at its lowest level since that fateful
year.
One of the best coincident and real - time indicators of bursting bubbles and recessions is the yield
spread between US high - yield corporate bonds and the 10 -
year US
Treasury.
Ten -
year Italian bond yields have risen 17 basis points to 4.55 percent, since the news of an uncertain outcome
spread on Monday but the Italian
treasury is going ahead with a sale of 6.5 billion euros ($ 8.5 billion) of 5 and 10 -
year bonds on Wednesday.
Gold surges toward $ 1400 / oz, S&P 500 tumbles to 2000, 10 -
year Treasury yield to 1.5 %; if credit
spreads don't crack (e.g. IBOXHYSE < 500bps) and Mexico peso finds quick low = entry point for risk - takers (especially if Trump protectionist fears allayed); until then best Trump trades = long gold, short EU banks, long US small - cap, short EM.
For example, consider the set of assets comprised of the 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury, U.S. equities, international equities, oil, the VIX, a trade - weighted dollar index and the BAA credit
spread.
The yield on the U.S. 10
year Treasury bond recently hit 9 - month highs and the 2s10s
spread widened on news of the Bank of Japan trimming its long - dated bond buying program and questions around China's ongoing purchase of U.S.
Treasuries (USTs) with its foreign - exchange reserves.
The emerging market (EM) advance this
year has compressed hard - currency
spreads versus U.S.
Treasuries to where they were before the post-U.S. election rout.
A typical measure of credit conditions are «
spreads» — the difference between the yield of 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury bonds and that of riskier bonds, such as high yield.
1: Widening credit
spreads: An increase over the past 6 months in either the
spread between commercial paper and 3 - month
Treasury yields, or between the Dow Corporate Bond Index yield and 10 -
year Treasury yields.
That decline in yields chipped away at the
spread between 2 -
year Treasuries US2YT = RR, which yield 2.282 percent, and longer - term bonds.
The yield curve is the flattest it has been in 10
years, meaning that the
spread between 10 - and two -
year Treasury yields is around 50 basis points, leaving the fed little room to manoeuvre.
The 10
year treasury rate actually dropped to 2.25 % in October 2008 but nobody could get a loan, and if they did,
spreads were egregiously wide (6 % for same loan), it didn't matter!
If you are looking at a 10
year corporate bond which is yielding 5 % for example, and at the same time the 10 Year treasury bond is yielding 2 %, then the credit spread is 300 basis points (3
year corporate bond which is yielding 5 % for example, and at the same time the 10
Year treasury bond is yielding 2 %, then the credit spread is 300 basis points (3
Year treasury bond is yielding 2 %, then the credit
spread is 300 basis points (3 %).
The
spread (or steepness) between 3 - month
Treasury notes and 10 -
year Treasury notes is currently around 1.40 %.
The
spread between it and the benchmark 10
year Treasury (T10) has widened, but only by 4 basis points (bp) since last month's report.
The
spread between 2 -
year and 10 -
year Treasuries provides a good benchmark for how investors feel about the Trump administration.
When the
spread between the 90 - day and 10 -
year Treasury yield is 121 basis points or more, the stock market does much better than when it's 120 basis points or less.
The
spread between the yields on the 2 -
year Treasury note and the 10 -
year Treasury note narrowed by 70 basis points from 125 points at the start of 2017 to just 55 points at the end of 2017.
Working in the other direction, the investment of the US dollar proceeds of foreign exchange intervention by Asian central banks was supportive of the US
Treasury market, as was the very wide
spread between 10 -
year Treasury yields and the Fed funds rate, particularly in light of the Fed's reaffirmation of its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance (Table 5, Graph 12).
Using monthly changes in the 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury rate and monthly changes in Moody's BAA - AAA
spread, we can create a multivariate regression against monthly returns of the Barclay's Aggregate index.
That said, credit
spreads have popped wider in the past 2 weeks as measured by the
spread between Moody's BAA yields and 10 -
year Treasuries, by 6 - month commercial paper yields versus 6 - month T - bills, and other
spreads.
Spread duration is displayed in years and reflects the contribution by sector to the portfolio's total spread duration with the exception of the Treasury and Interest - rate swap sectors where effective duration is disp
Spread duration is displayed in
years and reflects the contribution by sector to the portfolio's total
spread duration with the exception of the Treasury and Interest - rate swap sectors where effective duration is disp
spread duration with the exception of the
Treasury and Interest - rate swap sectors where effective duration is displayed.
To investigate, we define the credit
spread as the difference in yields between and Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bonds and 10 -
year Treasury notes (T - note).
The credit
spread is the difference in yields between the 10 -
year Treasury note and Moody's AAA seasoned corporate bonds.
In this case, the 10
year Treasury (at 1 %) is the benchmark index with a 4 %
spread.
In recent weeks, the
spread (or difference) between the yield of the 10 -
year Treasury and a high yield bond of comparable maturity actually widened a bit, roughly 0.45 %, restoring some value in the space.
For investors with a view on Fed policy, the best trades are two -
year U.S.
Treasury notes, Eurodollar futures, the U.S. 5s / 30s curve, swap
spreads, the 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury note and industrial metals.
For example, if a U.S.
Treasury security that matures in ten
years has a yield of 5 % and a TIPS security with the same maturity date has a yield of 3 %, the difference in yield, 2 %, is the TIPS
spread.
Speaking of the
spread between the T10 and the ten year apartment loan rate, now that Continue reading Apartment Building Investment Loan Rate Trends Lower as 10 yr Treasury and Spread
spread between the T10 and the ten
year apartment loan rate, now that Continue reading Apartment Building Investment Loan Rate Trends Lower as 10 yr
Treasury and
SpreadSpread Fall.
The
spread to the 10
year Treasury (T10) also remained in the 2.1 and change range where it's been since the beginning of March, indicating that the very competitive market for multifamily loans continues on.
For example, if the five -
year Treasury bond is at 5 % and the 30 -
year Treasury bond is at 6 %, the yield
spread between the two debt instruments is 1 %.
Exhibit 2 shows the yield
spread of various dividend indices versus the yield - to - maturity of the S&P U.S.
Treasury Bond 7 - 10
Year Index since Dec. 17, 2015.
And the
spread between A2 / P2 commercial paper and the two -
year Treasury has narrowed as well.
2) More yield - seeking —
spreads on mortgage bonds over
Treasuries are at a 17 -
year low, and as I measure it, and all - time low.
Over the last month the apartment loan rate we track eased slightly from 5.17 % to just under 5 at 4.959 % as the 10
year Treasury continued to fall causing the
spread to rise above its 6 month average for the first time since July of last
year but remains tighter than a
year ago:
At the same time, the long June 10 -
year Treasury note / Short June 30 -
year Treasury Bond
spread has closed in favour of the 10 -
year note between February 8 and April 17 in 17 of the last 19
years!
Loan rates from the lender we track have risen over the last few weeks as the ten
year Treasury (T10) has climbed about 25 basis points (bp) and the
spread between the two has widened about 10 basis points.
The 6 - month change in employment (using Household Survey data) had turned negative and the
spread between 2 -
year Treasury yields and the Fed Funds rates fell to less than -1.3 percentage points.
Credit
spreads continue to be elevated versus their levels earlier this
year, and the slope of the
Treasury yield curve remains flat.
Speaking of the
spread between the T10 and the ten year apartment loan rate, now that Continue reading Apartment Loan Rate Rises Faster than Treasuries as Spread
spread between the T10 and the ten
year apartment loan rate, now that Continue reading Apartment Loan Rate Rises Faster than
Treasuries as
Spread Spread Widens
1) Using the
spread to the yield on the 10 -
year Treasury is probably not the best choice to illustrate REIT
spreads.
They can either switch to another five -
year fixed rate preferred share security (with the rate being set at the then five -
year Canada bond yield plus the initial
spread) or a five -
year floating rate preferred share with the yield set at the then 3 - month
Treasury bill rate plus the initial
spread.
This
spread is measured by the difference between 10 -
year corporate bond yields and 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury bond yields (or alternatively, by 6 - month commercial paper minus 6 - month U.S.
Treasury bill yields).
After spending just one week above its six month moving average the
spread between the apartment investment loan rate we track and the 10
year Treasury (T10) fell to 2.143 with the apartment loan rate at a nine month low of 4.743 %.
Meanwhile the
spread between it and the benchmark 10
year Treasury (T10) held in the 210 -220 basis point range over the last six weeks.
In the chart below, high yield's upside is best when OAS
spreads are much higher than they are currently (3.85 %); prospects on 4 -
year forward excess return over
treasuries are relatively dismal when OAS
spreads are as low as they are today.