«The 10 -
year Treasury yield ended the survey week exactly where it started, however the solid February employment report boosted the yield noticeably on Friday and Monday,» says Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.
The benchmark 10 -
year Treasury yield ended 2017 around 2.41 percent, though yields fell around midyear, touching a low of 2.06 percent in September before recovering to current levels.
The 10 -
year Treasury yield ended at 2.8 percent on Feb. 5 and sits right there now.
Not exact matches
The pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark
ended flat at the
end of a choppy day, marginally weighed down after the U.S. 10 -
year Treasury yield rose above 3 percent for the first time since 2014.
During a webcast presenting his 2017 outlook, Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital, said certain «second - tier» managers were focusing on 2.6 % as an important level for the 10 -
year Treasury yield — a threshold beyond which the bull market in bonds would
end.
Ultimately, he sees the S&P 500 in 2018
ending 9 percent higher than current levels as long as the 10 -
year Treasury yield stays below 3 percent.
Indeed, Randell Moore, who survey's economists as the editor of the Blue Economic Indicators, says the current consensus is for the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury bond to rise to 3.25 % by the
end of 2015.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury ended the session at 2.71 percent, down dramatically from 2.852 percent on Friday, the highest level since January 2014.
Treasuries extended declines from October, pushing 10 -
year yields to a five - week high, as the probability of a Federal Reserve interest - rate increase by
year -
end hovered near 50 percent.
The 35
year bull market in bonds most likely
ended on July 8, 2016 when the 10
year maturity U.S.
Treasury Note
yield hit an all - time low of 1.36 %.
By the
end of that month,
yields on the 10 -
year Treasury note had climbed by nearly one - half of one percent — yet money continued to flow in to bond funds.
U.S. bonds have been rallying for several months, but that came to an abrupt
end last week as the
yield on the 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury bond rose to 1.95 % while two -
year yields surged from 0.49 % to nearly 0.65 %.
The interest rates referred to in most
yield curve discussions are 10 -
year Treasury yields at the long - end, and either 3 - month Treasury rates or 2 - year treasury rates at the sh
Treasury yields at the long -
end, and either 3 - month
Treasury rates or 2 - year treasury rates at the sh
Treasury rates or 2 -
year treasury rates at the sh
treasury rates at the short
end.
But longer - term rates, as measured by the
yield of the 10 -
year Treasury note,
ended 2017 at 2.409 percent, down a touch from 2.446 percent a
year ago.
Our Investment Strategy Report published on March 19 compared equity and bond
yields over multiple business cycles and found that the 10 -
year Treasury yield might have to sustain levels exceeding 3.5 % (far above what we believe is likely this
year) before compelling a
year -
end 2018 S&P 500 Index target range below our current
year -
end target of 2800 - 2900.2
Despite the flirtation of 3 percent
yields on the 10 -
year Treasury bond, many folks don't believe the multi-decade run of lower interest rates has
ended.
More impressive still is that in spite of the Fed raising short - term interest rates by a total of 1.0 % since mid-December 2015, the approximately 2.30 %
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury as of mid-July is near where it was at the
end of 2015 and 2016 (see the chart below).
The bellwether ten -
year Treasury note
ended the month
yielding 2.3 % and has been in a relatively tight range for several months.
While rates remained constrained, I had expected the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note to
end the
year between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent, not 2.25 percent.
This suggests that the determination of the 10 -
Year Treasury Note rate, the sum of the 3 - month
Treasury Bill rate and the
yield curve, largely rests on the height of the federal funds rate at the
end of the cycle.
Yields on US 10 -
year Treasury notes continued their rise,
ending the week at 2.42 %, up from 2.38 % a week ago.
The
yield on benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes at the
end of trading on Monday, down from 2.85 percent on Friday, the highest level since January 2014.
Treasury yields leapt again yesterday at the long
end, with the 10 -
year note climbing above 3.7 %, its highest close since November.
Oversea - Chinese Banking Corp. and ABN Amro Group NV see gold sliding to $ 1,100 an ounce by the
end of next
year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, real
Treasury yields increase and the U.S. currency rises.
This is consistent with BlackRock's view and confirms our caution on short - term rates, a risk that was on display last week as two -
year Treasury yields surged between Wednesday and Friday,
ending the week at 0.65 %.
The spread between the
yields on the 2 -
year Treasury note and the 10 -
year Treasury note narrowed by 70 basis points from 125 points at the start of 2017 to just 55 points at the
end of 2017.
Yields on 10 -
year Treasuries tumbled more than at the start of any
year since 1998,
ending at 1.95 percent last week.
But by the time stock trading had
ended, the Dow Jones industrial average was down modestly, and the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgages and other loans, was up only slightly.
Yields for 10 -
year Treasuries have made small moves this
year but are almost exactly where they were at the
end of 2014, despite clear signs all
year that the Fed will raise rates relatively soon.
Over the same tightening cycle that
ended in 2006, the impact on the 10 -
Year U.S.
Treasury Bond
yield was 60 bps higher, driving the 1 -
Year / 10 -
Year slope to flatten by 265 bps (see Exhibit 1).
Since longer - term interest rates are considered more representative of real estate financing costs, we compared how REITs with different lease durations performed in periods of increasing 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury Bond
yields, based on month -
end data.
The interest rates on Federal education loans change on July 1, and are based on the 91 - day rate from the last
Treasury auction in May and the average one -
year constant maturity
Treasury yield (CMT) for the last calendar week
ending on or before June 26th.
Consider that, as of the
end of April 2016, the 10 -
year Treasury offered a
yield of 1.83 % while the Barclays Municipal Bond Index had a
yield of 1.84 %.
Take the
yield on regular 10 -
year Treasurys, which was 2.74 % at the
end of 2018's first quarter, and subtract the 0.7 % offered by 10 -
year TIPS.
The
yield - to - worst (YTW) on the U.S. 10 -
year Treasury bond, as measured by the S&P / BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index, increased by 21 bps and ended 34 bps hig
year Treasury bond, as measured by the S&P / BGCantor Current 10
Year U.S. Treasury Index, increased by 21 bps and ended 34 bps hig
Year U.S.
Treasury Index, increased by 21 bps and
ended 34 bps higher.
The
yield - to - worst of the S&P / BGCantor Current 10
Year U.S.
Treasury Index
ended the week on Friday, June 19, 2015, 12 bps lower, at 2.26 %.
The
yield of the U.S.
Treasury 10 -
year as measured by the S&P / BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index ended the week 9 basis points as month - over-month CPI was the same as prior and lower than the 0.3 % expected le
year as measured by the S&P / BGCantor Current 10
Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index ended the week 9 basis points as month - over-month CPI was the same as prior and lower than the 0.3 % expected le
Year U.S.
Treasury Bond Index
ended the week 9 basis points as month - over-month CPI was the same as prior and lower than the 0.3 % expected level.
True, the
yield on 10 -
year Treasuries is down this
year, although it is up from where it was at the
end of 2008.
At the
end of the week, the Ten
Year Treasury yield was down nearly 3 bps and
ended at 2.58 percent.
Despite the
ending of quantitative easing by our Federal Reserve, 10
year treasury yields are way below two percent despite robust GDP growth in the back half of 2014.
Fixed Income Bonds suffered a second miserable month, as
yields rose again — with the 10 -
Year Treasury topping 2.5 %, up from 2.13 % at the start of the month and 1.7 % at the
end of April.
The
yield on the two -
year bond, as measured by the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2 - Year Index, remained consistent and actually ended June at 1.37 %, only 1 bp higher than the day after the rate h
year bond, as measured by the S&P U.S.
Treasury Bond Current 2 -
Year Index, remained consistent and actually ended June at 1.37 %, only 1 bp higher than the day after the rate h
Year Index, remained consistent and actually
ended June at 1.37 %, only 1 bp higher than the day after the rate hike.
The bond
yield is the month -
end yield for the 10 -
year Treasury.
I suspect that once we get a TLGP [
Treasury Liquidity Guaranty Program]
yield curve extending past 3
years, that spreads on the TLGP debt will exceed 1 % over
Treasuries on the long
end.
The
yield - to - worst of the S&P / BGCantor Current 10
Year U.S.
Treasury Index
ended the month 18 bps tighter, at 1.75 %.
For example, the investment grade non-callable municipal bonds maturing in 2024 tracked in the S&P AMT - Free Municipal Series 2024 Index
ended at a
yield of 1.87 % verses the
yield of the S&P / BGCantor Current 10
Year U.S.
Treasury Bond Index
yield of 2.03 %... or 92 % of the U.S.
Treasury yield.
Last
year,
yields blew through 3 % to reach 2.6 % at
year's
end, so in our Jan. 2009 Insight we declared «mission accomplished» and removed
Treasury bonds from our recommended list.
Yields moved lower as the
yield - to - worst of the S&P / BGCantor Current 10
Year U.S.
Treasury Bond Index is now at a 2.49 % which brings it back down to level seen at the
end of May.
The 10 -
year Treasury yield reached a 13 - month high of 2.17 % on May 28 and pulled back only slightly from that level by month -
end.
Currently average mortgage rates for a 30
year fixed are 5.78 % (bankrate.com), and
treasuries are
yielding 4.33 on the low
end (for 1 month).