The 10 -
year Treasury yield gained 15 bps, while the 30 - year Treasury yield moved up 10 bps to 2.77 %.
Not exact matches
On Tuesday, the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note topped 3 percent, the first time it's done this in more than four
years, and extended
gains on Wednesday.
The jump in the 10 -
year Treasury yield signals
gains for big banks and technology stocks, according to historical analysis using Kensho.
Indeed, the 10 -
year Treasury yield hit a four -
year high on Friday after the latest monthly U.S. jobs report showed solid wage
gains, effectively confirming an expected rate increase at the Federal Reserves next meeting, in March.
Since 1953, whenever the 10 -
year Treasury yield was higher than the 500's
yield by less than 100 bps, the S&P 500
gained an average 12 percent in price during the subsequent 12 months, and recorded positive results nearly 90 percent of the time.
However, with both the 10 -
year Treasury yield and the average dividend
yield for a company on the S&P 500 hovering around 2.35 %, that doesn't leave much in the way of real
gains if inflation is running at 2 % per annum.
Taking this a step further, the chart above shows that out of the most recent 23 periods of higher rates (based on the 10 -
year Treasury yield), stocks have
gained ground 19 of those times.
Very quickly those
gains reversed and as the trading day began to unfold, we saw the 10 -
year Treasury note
yield rise above 2 %, approximately 20 basis points wider than where it was trading just a few days ago.1
US equities rose and the 10 -
year Treasury yield was at a four -
year high at the open following
gains in the previous session but this situation is unstable and something must give, according to one analyst.
The 10 -
year US
Treasury yield hit the key psychological 3 % earlier this week and now threatens to extend its
gains, placing risk assets in jeopardy as investors weigh the potential consequences.
If you are also looking for price appreciation, Stovall also offers up this tidbit: «With the S&P 500 now
yielding 2.0 % versus 2.2 % for the 10 -
year Treasury, history reminds us that since 1953 whenever the
yield on the S&P 500 was within one percentage point of the 10 -
year yield, the «500»
gained an average of 11 % in price in the subsequent 12 months and was higher about 80 % of the time.»
But I am very pleased with the income potential — a 2.2 % return compares favorably to current 10
year treasury yields of about 2.7 %, considering that
treasuries have no real capital
gain potential, which could be significant over a 10
year period in the index stock funds.
Finally, the
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury note fell 5 bps to 2.78 %, Comex gold
gained 0.6 % to $ 1,336.10 / oz.
The S&P 500
gained almost triple its historic average last
year, and 10 -
year Treasury note
yields hit a three -
year high above 2.7 %.