Not exact matches
In January, Miller said a rise in the 10 -
year Treasury yield above 3 percent «will propel stocks significantly higher, as money exits bond funds for
only the second
year in the past 10.»
The report said that equities have
only come under pressure when the two -
year Treasury yield rose above 3.5 percent.
Only 15 percent knew that rates on government student loans are set by Congress, which has mandated that those rates be tied to
yields on 10 -
year Treasury notes.
During 1952 - 54, when the 10 -
year Treasury yield averaged about 2.5 %, its duration was
only slightly less than today's 10 -
year Treasury at 2.00 %
yield.
In response, The Wall Street Journal reported that Gross drew «a line in the sand for the 10 -
year yield, seeing
only limited room for the rally to continue in benchmark 10 -
year Treasurys.»
A partial inversion occurs when
only some of the short - term
Treasuries (five or 10
years) have higher
yields than 30 -
year Treasuries.
This modestly exceeds the
yield available on a 10 -
year Treasury, but by a small margin that - outside the late 1990's bubble period - has previously been seen
only during the two -
year period approaching the 1929 peak, between 1968 - 1972 (which was finally cleared by the 73 - 74 market plunge), and briefly in 1987, before the crash of that
year.
Despite the 10 -
year US
Treasury bond
only yielding roughly 2.2 %, that's still much higher than 10 -
year Treasury bonds from countries like France (0.6 %), Germany (0.3 %), Japan (0.0 %), and Switzerland, where you actually lose money lending -LRB--0.2 %).
A five -
year Treasury bond
yielded only 0.9 percent — and that's before inflation took 3.8 percent.
If the 30 -
year Treasury yields 6 percent, why on Earth would you accept
only 0.67 percent more income for a stock that has lots of risks versus a bond that has far fewer?
If one excludes the 1980 - 1997 period, the historical correlation between 10 -
year Treasury yields and 10 -
year prospective (and actual realized) equity returns is actually slightly negative over the past century, and is
only weakly positive in post-war data.
But by the time stock trading had ended, the Dow Jones industrial average was down modestly, and the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgages and other loans, was up
only slightly.
The 10 -
year Treasury yield is
only up 9.1 basis points to 2.425 % while the 30 -
year Treasury yield is down 9.9 basis points to 2.761 % for the same period.
This is
only one day, but the
yield curve slope, measured by the difference in
yields between 10 -
year and 2 -
year Treasuries, widened 10 basis points today.
How do you argue that
Treasuries, 10
Year Notes and longer, are about to undergo a secular decline in price and then go on to say that investors will be buying them in troves with the
yield at
only 3 %?
If you just invest in a risk - free 30
Year Treasury yielding approximately 3 %, that thousand dollars becomes more than $ 2,400 and that's
only a small amount with a conservatively low return.
A partial inversion occurs when
only some of the short - term
Treasuries (five or 10
years) have higher
yields than 30 -
year Treasuries.
So what do investors sacrifice in order to get that kind of
yield in a time when the 10
year treasury only yields 2 %?
The
yield on the two -
year bond, as measured by the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 2 - Year Index, remained consistent and actually ended June at 1.37 %, only 1 bp higher than the day after the rate h
year bond, as measured by the S&P U.S.
Treasury Bond Current 2 -
Year Index, remained consistent and actually ended June at 1.37 %, only 1 bp higher than the day after the rate h
Year Index, remained consistent and actually ended June at 1.37 %,
only 1 bp higher than the day after the rate hike.
I'll tell you this — with
only 0.82 % between the
yields on 10 - and 2 -
year Treasuries, the Fed is not tightening.
In a 2015 blog post, Larry Swedroe compared four portfolios, one with all of its fixed income invested
only in safe 5 -
year treasury bonds, the other three with each an increasing allocation to high
yield corporate bonds.
He found that while the portfolios with high
yield bonds did outperform by a narrow margin, between 0.2 and 0.5 percent per
year over the long - term, they did so with significantly higher volatility than the portfolio containing
only treasury bonds.
The
yield on 10 -
year U.S.
treasury notes is just 1.6 %, while the
yield on the total bond market index is 2.03 %: «
only slightly above the stock
yield of 2.0 %.»
The present environment is characterized by unusually overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, with rising 10 -
year Treasury bond
yields, heavy insider selling, valuations on «forward earnings» appearing reasonable
only because profit margins are more than 70 % above historical norms (fully explained by the negative sum of government and personal savings as a share of GDP), with the S&P 500 at a 4 -
year market high, in a mature market advance, with lagging employment indicators still positive but more than half of all OECD countries already in GDP contraction, Europe in recession, Britain on the cusp, and the EU imposing massive losses on depositors in order to protect lenders in an unstable banking system where Cyprus is the iceberg's tip.
I noticed this
year that in 2011, I wrote to you that the major risks for the economy would be felt in the next three
years and after that, common stocks would do very well over the next decade — and it was unlikely that bonds would outperform stocks in the next decade as they had in the past two decades, given that long term
treasuries were
yielding only 2.9 % at the time!
The 10 -
year Treasury yield reached a 13 - month high of 2.17 % on May 28 and pulled back
only slightly from that level by month - end.
For comparison, ordinary US
Treasury securities with a 5 -
year maturity will
yield only.71 %.
Not
only has this drop in
yields been positive for traditional bond funds such as the iShares 7 - 10
Year Treasury ETF (IEF), but preferred stocks, REITs, and even utilities have benefited as well.
The S&P 500 dividend
yield is
only about 0.8 % below the 10 -
year Treasury rate and 3 % higher than the 10
year rate if you add share buybacks.
That was the
only other period when bonds outperformed equities over 10
years, and the S&P dividend
yield was higher than the 10
year Treasury yield.
Given that 10 - 20
year Treasuries barely
yield 2 % and even high quality corporate bonds
only yield about 4 %, these represent remarkably favorable fixed income returns!
The Fed's moves
only have an indirect impact on mortgage rates, which tend to follow the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note.