The interest rates referred to in most yield curve discussions are 10 -
year Treasury yields at the long - end, and either 3 - month Treasury rates or 2 - year treasury rates at the short end.
It's even higher than the 30 -
year Treasury yield at 2.8 percent!
If much of the investment into bond mutual funds that has occurred the last couple of years is for purposes of dampening the volatility of a portfolio — and with the 10 -
Year Treasury yield at 1.8 percent it's difficult to argue for a different motivation - then it's important to think through the thesis that bonds will defend a balanced portfolio in an equity bear market in the same way they have, especially to the extent they have in the last two bear markets.
Not exact matches
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note traded
at 2.959 percent
at 2:09 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the two -
year note
yield climbed to 2.500 percent.
Elsewhere, the dollar held
at a three - month high against a basket of currencies, after having received a boost from U.S. 10 -
year Treasury yields holding near the key 3 percent level.
«The spread between the 2 -
year and 10 -
year Treasury is now the tightest it's been since 2007,» said Rob Morgan, chief investment officer
at Sethi: «The flattening
yield curve in 2007 was a harbinger of the Great Recession of 2008.
The
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note is
at 2.79 percent.
The
Treasury Department auctioned $ 29 billion in seven -
year notes
at a high
yield of 2.952 percent on Wednesday.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was lower
at around 2.998 percent
at 1:07 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond was lower
at 3.18 percent.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes, which moves inversely to price, was lower
at around 2.43 percent, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond was also lower
at 3.046 percent.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes sat slightly lower
at 2.221 while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond slipped to 2.797 percent.
At 12:46 p.m. (1646 GMT), the 10 - year Treasury yield was up 1 basis point at 2.983 percent after rising to 3.003 percent, which was the highest since January 201
At 12:46 p.m. (1646 GMT), the 10 -
year Treasury yield was up 1 basis point
at 2.983 percent after rising to 3.003 percent, which was the highest since January 201
at 2.983 percent after rising to 3.003 percent, which was the highest since January 2014.
U.S. 2 -
year Treasury yields were last
at 2.244 percent.
The longest - term portion of the offering, $ 8 billion of bonds maturing in 30
years, sold originally
at 99.4 cents on the dollar to
yield 1.95 percentage point more than comparable
Treasuries.
The 10 -
year Treasury note
yield at 2.6 percent could have sweeping implications, writes Miller Tabak's Matt Maley.
The pan-European STOXX 600 benchmark ended flat
at the end of a choppy day, marginally weighed down after the U.S. 10 -
year Treasury yield rose above 3 percent for the first time since 2014.
Following the report, the
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was lower
at around 2.959 percent
at 3:46 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond was lower
at 3.128 percent.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes, which moves inversely to price, was higher
at around 2.314 percent, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond was also higher
at 2.877 percent.
The 10 -
year Treasury yield ended
at 2.8 percent on Feb. 5 and sits right there now.
If true, this should accelerate upward momentum of
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar — currently
at a 14 -
year high — which could dampen gold's chances of repeating the rally we saw in the first half of this
year.
And now the
yield curve is threatening to invert again, with the spread between 10 - and two -
year Treasury note
yields now
at its lowest level since that fateful
year.
Prior to some of the past recessions, the two -
year Treasury yield rose above the 10 -
year yield, although
at the moment, the former is still below the 10 -
year note, but has recently moved closer to it.
«Net short positions on 10 -
year Treasury notes are
at historical highs, implying that rising US bond
yields remains among hedge funds» major convictions.»
Wall Street is on watch for a major milestone on
Treasury markets: the 10 -
year yield at 3 percent.
Luciano Siracusano, chief investment strategist
at ETF and index developer WisdomTree (wetf), says the 1,400 dividend - paying stocks in the company's WT Dividend index now have average
yields of about 3 %, twice the
yield of 10 -
year Treasuries.
The big move came in the
Treasury market, where the 10 -
year yield rose to trade
at 1.84 percent late Friday, from 1.70 percent the week earlier.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was up 3 basis points
at 2.227 percent, after closing
at 2.201 in the previous session.
Indeed, the 10 -
year Treasury yield hit a four -
year high on Friday after the latest monthly U.S. jobs report showed solid wage gains, effectively confirming an expected rate increase
at the Federal Reserves next meeting, in March.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury ended the session
at 2.71 percent, down dramatically from 2.852 percent on Friday, the highest level since January 2014.
Though its risen recently, the real
yield on the ten
year Treasury hovers below 1 % (the 2.48 % rate, minus projected inflation of
at least 1.5 points), an extremely favorable number by historical standards.
The
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond was
at 2.981 percent, after rising as high as 2.999.
The
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury Bond is mostly flat and holding
at the 2.70 percent level.
The
Treasury Department auctioned $ 35 billion in five -
year notes
at a high
yield of 2.837 percent on Wednesday.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was slightly lower
at around 2.944 percent
at 12:28 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond slipped to 3.106 percent.
HSBC Bank researcher Steven Major doesn't think the «Trump effect» will be long lasting, but is forecasting that it will keep
yields on 10 -
year Treasurys at 2.5 percent into early 2017.
The 10 -
year Treasury note's
yield, which serves as a benchmark for everything from U.S. mortgages to borrowing costs for municipalities, fell in November to as low as 2.3 percent and topped out
at 2.41 percent.
The
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note, for instance, stood
at 2.31 percent Friday, up from 1.85 percent when Trump was elected.
At some point, if these policies are inflationary, then the vigilantes or those that hold dollar reserves, such as China and Brazil and Mexico, they will be in the driver's seat in terms of longer - term
Treasury debt, 10
years and 30
years Treasury debt in terms of their
yield.
During 1952 - 54, when the 10 -
year Treasury yield averaged about 2.5 %, its duration was only slightly less than today's 10 -
year Treasury at 2.00 %
yield.
European government bond and U.S. 10 -
year Treasury yields are trading
at their highest levels in more than two months and the U.S. 30 -
year Treasury bond
yield reached a high for the
year on Tuesday.
I prefer to look
at the plot of 10
year Treasury yields since 1980 and they show a steady downward trend.
At that time, the 10 -
year Treasury bond had a duration of just 6
years (due to the very high coupon payments and
yield - to - maturity available), while the S&P 500 had an extraordinarily low duration of just 16
years.
Although the
yield of a 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury bond has risen recently to around 2.50 % — that's not too far from where it was
at the beginning of 2017 (source: Bloomberg, as of 1/10/2018).
However, with both the 10 -
year Treasury yield and the average dividend
yield for a company on the S&P 500 hovering around 2.35 %, that doesn't leave much in the way of real gains if inflation is running
at 2 % per annum.
At present, more than one - third of the publicly held float in Treasury debt is financed at maturities of less than a year and at yields well below 1
At present, more than one - third of the publicly held float in
Treasury debt is financed
at maturities of less than a year and at yields well below 1
at maturities of less than a
year and
at yields well below 1
at yields well below 1 %.
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at the 10 -
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The U.S. 10 -
year Treasury yield briefly topped 2.93 % after Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision to hike interest rates, but then retreated aggressively to last trade
at 2.83 % as stock markets plunged.
Interest accrues on amounts deferred
at an interest rate set annually based on the ten -
year Treasury note
yield on the first business day of January plus 2.70 %.
That decline in
yields chipped away
at the spread between 2 -
year Treasuries US2YT = RR, which
yield 2.282 percent, and longer - term bonds.
But longer - term rates, as measured by the
yield of the 10 -
year Treasury note, ended 2017
at 2.409 percent, down a touch from 2.446 percent a
year ago.