Last
year atmospheric methane was the subject of 600 peer - reviewed publications, compared with 2,000 for CO2.
Not exact matches
She determined that 11,000
years ago
methane released from thawing lakes contributed 33 to 87 percent of
atmospheric methane.
The researchers determined from the isotope ratio that the Taylor Glacier samples were 120,000
years old, and validated the estimate by comparing the results to well - dated ice core measurements of
atmospheric methane and oxygen from that same period.
In recent
years, researchers have noticed another clue to the puzzle: The carbon atoms in
atmospheric methane molecules have shifted toward lighter isotopes.
In one scenario,
methane's rise may come in part from a drop in hydroxyl, a chemical that acts as an
atmospheric detergent; in the other, the gas is emanating from tropical wetlands flooded by heavy rains in recent
years.
The ice core data also shows that CO2 and
methane levels have been remarkably stable in Antarctica — varying between 300 ppm and 180 ppm — over that entire period and that shifts in levels of these gases took at least 800
years, compared to the roughly 100
years in which humans have increased
atmospheric CO2 levels to their present high.
If it all thaws out, we may see the highest levels of
atmospheric methane in 10,000
years.
In the new paper, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, Höglund - Isaksson estimated global
methane emissions from oil and gas systems in over 100 countries over a 32 -
year period, using a variety of country - specific data ranging from reported volumes of associated gas to satellite imagery that can show flaring, as well as
atmospheric measurements of ethane, a gas which is released along with
methane and easier to link more directly to oil and gas activities.
Turning up the heat seems to increase the rate at which the plants produce
methane, Keppler says, which could explain why
atmospheric levels of
methane were high hundreds of thousands of
years ago when global temperatures were balmy.
Patrick Crill, an American biogeochemist at Stockholm University, says ice core data from the past 800,000
years, covering about eight glacial and interglacial cycles, show
atmospheric methane concentrations between 350 and 800 parts per billion in glacial and interglacial periods, respectively.
In fact, while
methane is a
atmospheric characteristic of giant gas planets like Jupiter, the only brown dwarf found to even have a trace of
methane was Gliese 229 B, which orbits a reddish, M - class dwarf located about 20 light -
years away from Earth.
And others believe clathrates of a whatever kind are already accelerating in their melt rates (which, paradoxically may show up better in
atmospheric CO2 than
methane since a recent study said 50 % of
methane is converted to CO2 via methanogenesis, perhaps helping with the accounting re: last
year's massive increase)...
We find (i) measurements at all scales show that official inventories consistently underestimate actual CH4 [
methane] emissions, with the natural gas and oil sectors as important contributors; (ii) many independent experiments suggest that a small number of «super-emitters» could be responsible for a large fraction of leakage; (iii) recent regional
atmospheric studies with very high emissions rates are unlikely to be representative of typical natural gas system leakage rates; and (iv) assessments using 100 -
year impact indicators show system - wide leakage is unlikely to be large enough to negate climate benefits of coal - to - natural gas substitution.
As NOAA's Mauna Loa measurement of
atmospheric methane concentrations are only currently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.25 % per
year (or 12.5 % change in 50 -
years); how could anyone be concerned that the change in
atmospheric methane burden in 50 -
years could be 300 % (as per Isaken et al (2011) case 4XCH4; which would require an additional 0.80 GtCH4 / yr of
methane emissions on top of the current rate of
methane emissions of 0.54 GtCH4 / yr)?
The
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000
years.
As an example of the possible extreme change in radiative forcing in a 50 -
year time horizon for Isaken et al (2011)'s 4 x CH4 (i.e. quadrupling the current
atmospheric methane burden) case of additional emission of 0.80 GtCH4 / yr is 2.2 Wm - 2, and as the radiative forcing for the current
methane emissions of 0.54 GtCH4 / yr is 0.48 Wm - 2, this give an updated GWP for
methane, assuming the occurrence of Isaksen et al's 4 x CH4 case in 2040, would be: 33 (per Shindell et al 2009, note that AR5 gives a value of 34) times (2.2 / [0.8 + 0.48]-RRB- divided by (0.54 / 0.48) = 50.
2011) of the present
atmospheric methane burden by 2100, or a 50 % increase fifty
years primarily due to increase emissions from marshlands and conventional anthropogenic sources.
As Steve mentioned in his e-mail, our ability to measure
atmospheric methane has been subject to tight budget constraints for many
years.
Dr. Archer has worked on the ongoing mystery of the low
atmospheric CO2 concentration during glacial time 20,000
years ago, and on the fate of fossil fuel CO2 on geologic time scales in the future, and its impact on future ice age cycles, ocean
methane hydrate decomposition, and coral reefs.
Also, haven't
atmospheric methane levels been dropping for around ten
years?
Small wonder
atmospheric methane can cause such global catastrophe considering its dramatic rise during the last few
years, as elucidated by Carana on 5 December 2013 in the figure below.»
We find that the global
methane hydrate inventory decreases by approximately 70 % (35 %) under four times (twice) the
atmospheric CO2 concentration and is accompanied by significant global oxygen depletion on a timescale of thousands of
years.
Current concentrations of
atmospheric carbon dioxide and
methane far exceed pre-industrial values found in polar ice core records of
atmospheric composition dating back 650,000
years.
The release of this trapped
methane is a potential major outcome of a rise in temperature; it is thought that this is a main factor in the global warming of 6 °C that happened during the end - Permian extinction as
methane is much more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (despite its
atmospheric lifetime of around 12
years, it has a global warming potential of 72 over 20
years and 25 over 100
years).
Now the record of
atmospheric carbon dioxide and
methane concentrations has been extended by two more complete glacial cycles to 800,000
years ago.
Exceeding the 400 parts per million level of worldwide
atmospheric carbon dioxide later this decade continues a troubling trend which brings the world closer to the potential to reach a global warming tipping point in which global warming accelerates rapidly as the potent greenhouse gas
methane is liberated from the frozen state that it has been in for millions of
years.
On longer timescales,
atmospheric composition and climate have been intertwined for billions of
years, especially via
methane, which is both a powerful greenhouse gas and is chemically reactive.
We might get a short cycle of a few thousand
years, or we might a hugely extended cycle of
atmospheric scrubbing, tens of thousands of
years, if the
methane in the hydrates boils off to be later captured by the algae and resequestered as oil.
Using SCIAMACHY satellite data as well as ground - based measurements from 2003 to 2009, researchers found that the region where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah intersect had
atmospheric methane concentrations equivalent to about 1.3 million pounds of emissions a
year.
This led to the «early anthropogenic hypothesis» that early agriculture caused the observed (and anomalous) reversals in the natural declines of
atmospheric CO2 (carbon dioxide) near 7000
years ago and CH4 (
methane) near 5000
years ago.
Some of the mid-latitude increase of stratospheric water vapor (1 % per
year) over the period of 1980 - 2006 can be explained by the increase of
atmospheric methane, but not all.
«Global
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of
years.»
16 Major greenhouse gases Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Source: Fossil fuel burning, deforestationSource: Fossil fuel burning, deforestation Anthropogenic increase: 30 % Anthropogenic increase: 30 % Average
atmospheric residence time: 500 yearsAverage
atmospheric residence time: 500
years Methane (CH 4)
Methane (CH 4) Source: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay from landfills, miningSource: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay from landfills, mining Anthropogenic increase: 145 % Anthropogenic increase: 145 % Average
atmospheric residence time: 7 - 10 yearsAverage
atmospheric residence time: 7 - 10
years Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers) Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers) Anthropogenic increase: 15 % Anthropogenic increase: 15 % Average
atmospheric residence time: 140 - 190 yearsAverage
atmospheric residence time: 140 - 190
years
Perhaps the author should educate himself about the dwell time of
atmospheric methane, it is approximately 12
years.
This parallels a recent NOAA study of
atmospheric methane measurements that found that «
methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades» — with production soaring in recent
years.
Methane clathrates are also present in deep Antarctic ice cores, and record a history of atmospheric methane concentrations, dating to 800,000 yea
Methane clathrates are also present in deep Antarctic ice cores, and record a history of
atmospheric methane concentrations, dating to 800,000 yea
methane concentrations, dating to 800,000
years ago.
The
atmospheric concentration of
methane above the Arctic is the highest measured for the last 400,000
years, said the researchers.
In 2008, research on Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores revealed that
methane clathrates were also present in deep Antarctic ice cores and record a history of
atmospheric methane concentrations, dating to 800,000
years ago.
And though
atmospheric methane levels had been more or less stable in recent
years, they have been observed to be increasing again, with unusually warm temperatures in Siberia being one of the culprits.
Methane has an
atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3
years.
The
atmospheric methane concentration rose from the preanthropogenic until about the
year 1993, at which point it rather abruptly plateaued.
For example, the direct radiative effect of a mass of
methane is about 84 times stronger than the same mass of carbon dioxide over a 20 -
year time frame [22] but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total direct radiative effect is smaller, in part due to its shorter
atmospheric lifetime.
The identification of other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such as
methane, the contributions to
atmospheric carbon dioxide from other human activities such as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding of the temperature - changing properties of
atmospheric pollution such as sulphur emissions, aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge - base was increasing
year by
year.
A combination of historical ice core data and air monitoring instruments reveals a consistent trend: global
atmospheric methane concentrations have risen sharply in the past 2000
years.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50
years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in
atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70
years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400
years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
Since 2006,
atmospheric levels of
methane — a greenhouse gas 86 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20 -
year period — have steadily been on the rise.
The amount of permafrost hydrate
methane is not known very well, but it would not take too much
methane, say 60 Gton C released over 100
years, to double
atmospheric methane yet again.
Methane has an
atmospheric lifetime of about 12
years and a global warming potential of 28 over a hundred -
year period.