A 20 -
year bear market in the Thomson Reuters equal weighted commodity index bottomed in 02» and began a 11 year secular bull market right as China and its billion plus people crossed the tipping point.
Suggesting that there is a 15 -
year bear market in front of us by the San Francisco Fed, where multiples will fall by another 59 % is just unimaginable — and then waiting another 20 years to see an improvement in stocks, it's the worst kind of «Fed Speak» to come out in years.
What followed was a 34 -
year bear market in bonds that lasted from the Truman era to the Reagan years.
Following the sharpest decline in crude oil prices in at least a century, as well as a six -
year bear market in metals, the global environment could be ripe for a commodity rebound.
After a five -
year bear market in most metal commodities, miners finally had a bull run in 2016, with some stocks» prices more than doubling off their lows.
Not exact matches
«Instead, we are likely to see a rolling
bear market across individual stocks and sectors that results
in a choppy, range - trading index for
years,» Wilson said.
«Even
in the last 20
years which have been a long
bear market [for Japan], there have been several periods of rebound, such as between 2003 and 2005 when the
market rebounded by 100 percent.
The KBW banking index is down 26 % since its high
in July last
year, putting bank stocks
in a
bear market.
It is altogether possible that we can have a cyclical downturn
in the U.S. economy by early 2019, and a cyclical
bear market in stocks this
year, anticipating such a development.
We've had a three -
year bear market where virtually everything lost money, followed by a stupendous
year where virtually everything made money, topped off by the biggest regulatory scandal
in the $ 7 trillion fund industry's history.
Wong, who was
born in Hong Kong, educated
in Canada and is now based
in Shanghai, said Starbucks might break into 10 - 15 new urban
markets in China every
year, while continuing its penetration
in megacities where it has taken hold.
So unlike brokers, we have no conflict of interest pushing us to recommend high volumes of trades whether we believe
in the potential of those trades or not We have no perpetual bias for a bull
market as most of Wall Street has to be (to justify the heavily - weighted stance of «buy» vs. «sell,» a stance that always persists even
in harshest
bear markets) Instead of all of these kinds of anti-investor establishment motivators, we will sell our products on subscription, with a customer - friendly, overwhelming motivation to deliver an experience that will win very profitable renewals for many
years to come.
It is not overly dramatic yet and I still think this
market will make new all time highs this
year but
in 2019 or late 2018 we may see a beginning of a new
bear market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 1,000 - its highest levels
in nearly a decade - and it was on the precipice of saying sayonara to a 16 -
year bear market.
Equity
markets in the G7 will fall
year - over-
year as this recent turmoil episode is not a temporary slump but the beginning of a
bear market.
The company, which went public
in 2006 at 95 cents and hit an all - time low at 9 cents at the end of the
bear market, recovered and reached an all - time high at $ 8.00
in June 2015, following a correction that extended into the second half of 2016, pushing down the stock to a 2 -
year low at $ 2.45.
But having lived through two big
bear markets in the last 15
years, elderly investors can hardly be blamed for regarding equities with caution.
In fact, most of the Silicon Valley folks weren't old enough to be working during the last big
bear market 15
years ago that wiped everyone out.
You've got folks who put all their net worth
in the stock
market and think they're brilliant because they've never seen a
bear market having only started four
years ago.
That is number is how large your nut needs to be to have a 99.99 % probability based on the last 100
years of data to be guaranteed to never run out of money no mater if you retired into the worst
bear market in history.
At Franklin Templeton, we've been investing
in global
markets for more than 65
years, across bull and
bear markets alike.
What's interesting to note is that the worst 10
year returns for both periods came right after huge
bear markets in stocks — 1974
in the first instance and 2008
in the second one.
This way, if a
bear market occurs, you have a
year of cash becoming available at the maturity date so that you do not have to sell stocks, and
in a bull
market you can buy new bonds as the ones you own mature, and you thereby benefit from the higher interest rates that high quality bonds give versus cash or CDs.
The pitch was that if you just keep your money
in the
market when the going gets rough, such as
in bear markets, the substantial upside
in the good
years will more than compensate for the down
years, thereby leaving you with a solid annualized gain over long - term.
[01:10] Introduction [02:45] James welcomes Tony to the podcast [03:35] Tony's leap
year birthday [04:15] Unshakeable delivers the specific facts you need to know [04:45] What James learned from Unshakeable [05:25] Most people panic when the stock
market drops [05:45] Getting rid of your fear of investing [06:15] Last January was the worst opening, but it was a correction [06:45] You are losing money when you sell on corrections [06:55]
Bear markets come every 5
years on average [07:10] The greatest opportunity for a millennial [07:40] Waiting for corrections to invest [08:05] Warren Buffet's advice for investors [08:55] If you miss the top 10 trading days a
year... [09:25] Three different investor scenarios over a 20
year period [10:40] The best trading days come after the worst [11:45] Investing
in the current world [12:05] What Clinton and Bush think of the current situation [12:45] The office is far bigger than the occupant [13:35] Information helps reduce fear [14:25] James's story of the billionaire upset over another's wealth [14:45] What money really is [15:05] The story of Adolphe Merkle [16:05] The story of Chuck Feeney [16:55] The importance of the right mindset [17:15] What fuels Tony [19:15] Find something you care about more than yourself [20:25] Make your mission to surround yourself with the right people [21:25] Suffering made Tony hungry for more [23:25] By feeding his mind, Tony found strength [24:15] Great ideas don't interrupt you, you have to pursue them [25:05] Never - ending hunger is what matters [25:25] Richard Branson is the epitome of hunger and drive [25:40] Hunger is the common denominator [26:30] What you can do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40] If you do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity
in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live
in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for you?
Yet robo - advisors, many of which have sprung up
in the last few
years, have never experienced a
bear market.
However, although sharp corrections are somewhat rare (they have only occurred
in nine
years since 1962), they have happened more often during bull
markets than during
bear markets, and thus have often presented buying opportunities historically.
The Schwab Center for Financial Research looked at both bull and
bear markets in the S&P 500 going back to the late»60s and found that the average bull ran for more than four
years, delivering an average return of nearly 140 %.
Here's an interesting question for investment professionals: Do you have a retiree with an equity heavy portfolio who has to make a withdrawal
in a
bear market during the early
years of the client's retirement?
It doesn't help when 4
years of a miserable
bear market remains fresh
in our memories.
Since 2001 the silver and gold
markets have gone up substantially as a reaction to the 20
year precious metals
bear market from 1980 — 2000, massive increases
in military spending, weakening global economies that REQUIRE Quantitative Easing to avoid deflation, the rise of competing currencies that weaken the dollar's trading status, excessive debts
in Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and so much more.
In addition, all of this happened following the nine -
year anniversary of the bull
market, which began on March 9, 2009, and 10
years after the bailout of
Bear Stearns.
Before the last two recessions and
bear markets, it peaked at 6.5 %
in 2000 and 5.25 % seven
years later, so it can rise a lot before it's a threat to stocks.
The longest break - even period
in this time frame was after the 2000 - 2002
bear market, when it took five
years and eight months for an investor to recover from the previous peak.
If we are
in fact
in a long, post-Bull trading range — see our 100 -
year Dow chart — than this is
year ~ 5 of what could be a 10 - 15
year secular
Bear market.
Now look at the right side of the table to see how bonds performed
in the 30
year bear market.
The favorable
market performance associated with many historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500 averaging less than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings
in the first
year of the bull
market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately
in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a
bear market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
The DJIA is not 10
years into a
bear market, and the DJIA has reached no new false top
in the current
bear market.
Gold stocks have been
in a
bear market for more than three and a half
years and
in terms of price are very close to matching the worst
bear market of all 1996 - 2000.
RITHOLTZ: Let's talk a little bit about you guys hanging your shingle
in 1980, really the final innings of a 16 -
year bear market; how did you guys have the nerve to launch into that environment and how did you get clients?
Musk, who shot down Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi for «
boring bonehead questions» that are «not cool,» said he would not need to return to the equity or debt
markets this
year to request more funds for Tesla, despite burning through $ 1.1 billion
in cash
in the first quarter.
In the
year before a
bear market, many emerging
market currencies perform strongly.
In fact, even a several - year span can be misleading, as a manager may be able to achieve above - average results by owning very high - risk stocks in a generally rising market but be virtually wiped out in the same class of stocks in a bear marke
In fact, even a several -
year span can be misleading, as a manager may be able to achieve above - average results by owning very high - risk stocks
in a generally rising market but be virtually wiped out in the same class of stocks in a bear marke
in a generally rising
market but be virtually wiped out
in the same class of stocks in a bear marke
in the same class of stocks
in a bear marke
in a
bear market.
Bear market declines average 1.25
years in duration, during which time stocks fall at an average rate of about -28 % annualized.
As we all know by now the S&P 500 had a brutal three -
year bear market from the technology boom and bust and then the financial crisis a few
years later which cut the
market in half yet again.
I've put more than $ 15k
in the last two
years, and while we are
in a bullmarket, some stocks actually return zero or even positive despite being
in a
bear market (consumer...)
They've been
in a
bear market for more than three and a half
years and
in terms of price are very close to matching the worst
bear market of all 1996 - 2000.
As you can see below, despite having experienced a bruising
bear market in recent
years, and being pushed down yet again, their returns have greatly exceeded that of the S&P.
If you want to ensure you get the big returns from stocks that investment writers highlight when urging you to invest
in equities, you need to buy during
bear markets to make up for the lousy returns from those
years when you buy at what proves to be the top of a bull
market.
If you bought VYM at the bottom of the
bear market in 2009 and held through summer of this
year, your total annualized return would have been roughly 16 %.