Not exact matches
The dollar has
rallied through much of the past week as concerns over the U.S. - China trade dispute receded, and as the U.S. 10 -
year bond yield shot past 3 percent for the first time in four
years.
To maintain the balance of their portfolios, pension fund managers have been selling equities and buying more
bonds, and their notable demand for the latter counters the popular narrative that the 35 -
year rally in fixed income is over.
This, along with the fact that
rallies in the 10 -
year futures have also been accompanied by high volume, has Ciana believing that the
bond market could soon
rally.
Here's the upshot: After an initial multiyear recovery in stock and
bond prices after a crisis (the
rally we saw through last
year) comes a long stretch of lousy returns.
Therefore we expect the decline in interest rate futures, specifically the 10 -
year Treasury Notes and 30 -
year Treasury
Bonds to be a temporary effect of speculative exuberance, and for interest rate futures to
rally through the end of the month as the heavily short speculators are forced out of their positions.
Junk -
bond ETFs
rallied on Wednesday, as markets breathed relief that the «fiscal cliff» is no longer a concern and as a result,
bond yields are under 6 percent for the first time ever, and junk ETF share prices hit levels not seen in
years in some cases, according to an article on ETF Trends.
Treasury
bond prices
rallied and yields on the 10 -
year fell to between 2.8 % and 2.85 % following the release of benign inflation data and weaker - than - expected retail sales figures.
U.S.
bonds have been
rallying for several months, but that came to an abrupt end last week as the yield on the 10 -
year U.S. Treasury
bond rose to 1.95 % while two -
year yields surged from 0.49 % to nearly 0.65 %.
We have benefited from this
year's rally in stocks and bonds (our Multi Asset Risk Strategy ETF Model Portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of over 3 this year — and that's with no leverage), but we are managing our risk by incorporating asset classes such as gold through the iShares Gold Trust (IAU); liquid alternatives through the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI), long - dated Treasuries through the iShares 20 + Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)-- each of which diversify our portfolio risk and carry well within an ETF portfolio constr
year's
rally in stocks and
bonds (our Multi Asset Risk Strategy ETF Model Portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of over 3 this
year — and that's with no leverage), but we are managing our risk by incorporating asset classes such as gold through the iShares Gold Trust (IAU); liquid alternatives through the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI), long - dated Treasuries through the iShares 20 + Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)-- each of which diversify our portfolio risk and carry well within an ETF portfolio constr
year — and that's with no leverage), but we are managing our risk by incorporating asset classes such as gold through the iShares Gold Trust (IAU); liquid alternatives through the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI), long - dated Treasuries through the iShares 20 +
Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)-- each of which diversify our portfolio risk and carry well within an ETF portfolio constr
Year Treasury
Bond ETF (TLT)-- each of which diversify our portfolio risk and carry well within an ETF portfolio construct.
The government's 10 -
year bonds rose, pushing yields to their lowest level this
year, while the benchmark BUX stock index
rallied the most in six weeks.
The gloomy outlook is a sea change from recent
years, when stocks,
bonds and other assets
rallied in unison against the backdrop of easy money and synchronized global growth.
Most analysts missed the great
bond rally of the last two
years.
From a «consensual positioning» perspective which touches on this current «mean - reversion dynamic in the marketplace: say this big
bond rally were to gather steam into a much more punishing squeeze of the «all - time» UST short base (largely due to the previously mentioned lack of «tolerance» for beginning of
year performance pain).
Despite hawkish FOMC minutes and a stronger U.S. dollar, Indonesian
bonds rallied 10.15 %
year - to - date (YTD), outperforming the other nine countries tracked by the S&P Pan Asia
Bond Index, data as of Jun 7, 2016.
-- AWOCS Treasury 30 -
Year Rally Ebbs in June Before $ 13 Billion
Bond Sale — Bloomberg -LSB-...]
The conditions have fueled a
rally in Portugal's sovereign
bonds so far this
year, although they remain the second - highest yielding
bonds in the eurozone, behind those of Greece.
The narrative of higher rates being a headwind for gold seems to be falling apart, as the 10
year yield in the US seems to be on an upswing, and gold is
rallying at the same time that
bond values fall.
Oil - which
rallied sharply off of Netanyahu's comments yesterday regarding Iran - pulled back to $ 67.73, while the US 10 -
year bond yield remained steady between 2.951 % - 2.963 %.
Given that Treasury yields broke through levels that have been a fairly reliable barrier for several
years now, it wouldn't be surprising to see
bonds stage a «relief
rally» here, but both yields and market action remain unfavorable overall, holding the Strategic Total Return Fund to a roughly 2 -
year duration, primarily in Treasury inflation - protected securities.
... the three -
year rally in
bonds could be officially O - V - E-R because of higher inflation rates.
Treasury 30 -
year bonds advanced after biggest quarterly
rally since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 as the Federal Reserve prepared to buy longer - term debt under the program known as Operation Twist.
The equity side of my portfolio had definitely gotten heavy with this past
year's
rally — for me it's looking like a good time to start concentrating on the
bond - side of my portfolio.
Think of 1979 - 82: by the time
bond yields were nearing their peak levels,
bond managers were making money in nominal terms with rates rising because the income from the coupons was so high, and it set up the tremendous
rally in
bonds that would last for ~ 30
years or so.
Pimco Total Return, managed by Chief Investment Officers Scott Mather, Mark Kiesel, and Mihir Worah since Gross's departure, trailed a majority of peers for the second straight
year in 2014 after missing a
rally in longer - term
bonds and betting that inflation would rise.
(Bloomberg)-- Pimco's biggest mutual fund trailed a majority of peers for the second straight
year after missing a
rally in longer - term
bonds and betting incorrectly that inflation would rise.
Rebalance: While stocks have
rallied sharply,
bond yields have improved somewhat (recall that
bond prices move in opposite direction to
bond yields)-- 10 -
year bonds are now yielding 3.5 % up from around 3.0 % in March.
The ten
year maturity range of the municipal
bond market has seen a nice
rally.
Since
bond yields and prices are inversely related,
bonds rallied over the past five
years.
Of course, yields on 10 -
year Treasuries (USGG10YR) have since fallen to 2.6 percent from 3 percent at the end of December and company
bonds have resumed their
rally.
Actually, it's
rallied really since July when Draghi said he was gonna cut purchases of
bonds maybe next
year.