On the other hand, Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray said: «I feel even stronger about our year - end call of 3, 3.25 [percent] in the 10 -
year bond yield at this point.»
Not exact matches
It was nudging up
at 2.96 percent on Tuesday, which also left the gap between U.S. and German 10 -
year benchmark
bond yields just off its widest level in nearly three decades.
NEW YORK, May 1 - The dollar broke into positive territory for the
year and U.S.
bond yields inched higher again on Tuesday as the recent rise in oil prices fueled expectations the Federal Reserve could flag more interest rate hikes
at its policy meeting this week.
On Wednesday afternoon, the benchmark U.S. 10 -
year bond was
yielding 2.35 per cent, up 15 basis points from before the Fed statement and up sharply from about 1.6 per cent
at the beginning of May.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was lower
at around 2.998 percent
at 1:07 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond was lower
at 3.18 percent.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes, which moves inversely to price, was lower
at around 2.43 percent, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond was also lower
at 3.046 percent.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes sat slightly lower
at 2.221 while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond slipped to 2.797 percent.
The longest - term portion of the offering, $ 8 billion of
bonds maturing in 30
years, sold originally
at 99.4 cents on the dollar to
yield 1.95 percentage point more than comparable Treasuries.
«What we noticed in January was that stocks and
bond yields wanted to run through their
year - end targets» to start off 2018, said John Augustine, chief investment officer
at Huntington Private Bank.
The central bank said it will purchase Japanese government
bonds so that the
yield on the 10 -
year note will remain
at around zero percent.
Following the report, the
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was lower
at around 2.959 percent
at 3:46 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond was lower
at 3.128 percent.
Germany's benchmark 10 -
year bond yield was up almost 2 bps
at 0.58 percent in early trade, above a one - week low of 0.56 percent hit on Friday.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes, which moves inversely to price, was higher
at around 2.314 percent, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond was also higher
at 2.877 percent.
Lewis, fund's chief investment officer, spent nine
years at Citigroup as a director of the bank's global special situations group, a $ 5 billion prop - trading group that specialized in distressed debt, high -
yield bonds, and value equity.
«Net short positions on 10 -
year Treasury notes are
at historical highs, implying that rising US
bond yields remains among hedge funds» major convictions.»
The
yield on the 10 -
year bond started the
year at just under 3 %.
The
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond was
at 2.981 percent, after rising as high as 2.999.
The
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury
Bond is mostly flat and holding
at the 2.70 percent level.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note was slightly lower
at around 2.944 percent
at 12:28 p.m. ET, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond slipped to 3.106 percent.
Rising inflation expectations in recent months have been reflected in U.K. government
bond (gilt) prices with the
yield on 10 -
year gilts touching its highest level since April this
year at 1.509 percent in Monday's session.
That certainly was the market reaction this morning, as the 10 -
year bond yield spiked on the report, suggesting concerns about future inflation and a more aggressive rate - hike schedule
at the Fed.
All in all, we believe eurozone
bond yields may move a little higher, but any increase is likely to be capped by the ECB's ongoing level of purchases,
at least until policymakers start to signal their next steps on monetary policy later in the
year.
Elsewhere,
at the single country and asset class fund levels, High
Yield Bond Funds recorded their ninth consecutive outflow while Inflation Protected
Bond Funds took in fresh money for the 10th time in the 11 weeks,
year - to - date.
European government
bond and U.S. 10 -
year Treasury
yields are trading
at their highest levels in more than two months and the U.S. 30 -
year Treasury
bond yield reached a high for the
year on Tuesday.
It's hard to believe it's just a few
years since countries like Ireland and Spain had to go cap - in - hand to international lenders —
at least if you look
at their
bond yields.
Although they are not as egregiously expensive as 10 -
year Swiss government
bonds — currently trading
at a
yield of negative 0.25 % — Canadian
bonds are offering a relatively paltry real return, even after adjusting for low inflation.
At that time, the 10 -
year Treasury
bond had a duration of just 6
years (due to the very high coupon payments and
yield - to - maturity available), while the S&P 500 had an extraordinarily low duration of just 16
years.
Although the
yield of a 10 -
year U.S. Treasury
bond has risen recently to around 2.50 % — that's not too far from where it was
at the beginning of 2017 (source: Bloomberg, as of 1/10/2018).
If I round up, the 10
year bond yield is
at 3 %.
High -
yield bonds represented by the Bloomberg Barclays High Yield 2 % Issuer Capped Index, comprising issues that have at least $ 150 million par value outstanding, a maximum credit rating of Ba1 or BB + (including defaulted issues) and at least one year to matu
yield bonds represented by the Bloomberg Barclays High
Yield 2 % Issuer Capped Index, comprising issues that have at least $ 150 million par value outstanding, a maximum credit rating of Ba1 or BB + (including defaulted issues) and at least one year to matu
Yield 2 % Issuer Capped Index, comprising issues that have
at least $ 150 million par value outstanding, a maximum credit rating of Ba1 or BB + (including defaulted issues) and
at least one
year to maturity.
Tuesday's
bond activity was relatively quiet, with the
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year note rising to 2.635 percent after a volatile Monday showed the complicated and sometimes contradictory forces
at work.
That decline in
yields chipped away
at the spread between 2 -
year Treasuries US2YT = RR, which
yield 2.282 percent, and longer - term
bonds.
Which explains why
yields on two -
year government
bonds in Canada have surged in recent weeks and are now
at about parity with the U.S.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, hit a record of 1.378 percent, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
bond was down
at 2.1529 percent.
We have found that stocks and
bond yields historically have been positively correlated until the 10 -
year yield gets up around 5 %,
at which point the correlations break down.
The REIT that was was attractive with a 5 % dividend
yield when the 10 -
year bond yield was
at 2 % is no longer attractive when the 10 -
year bond yield is also
at 5 % because the 10 -
year bond is risk - free.
The evidence is simply that the 10 -
year bond yield is now under 2 %, when it was
at over 4 % during the invention of the 4 % safe withdraw rate.
In
bond markets,
yields on 10
year bonds are now
at their lowest levels for two decades.
Bond yields have actually been falling since July 1, 1981 when the 10 -
year yield was
at 15.84 %.
Currently, participants who have not taken a distribution receive interest credits
at the rate equal to the 30 -
year Treasury
bond yield plus 0.5 % but not less than 5 %; the «interest credit» rate is adjusted annually.
The
yield on the 10 -
year note ended Tuesday
at 3.03 % and the 30 -
year bond closed
at 3.21 %.
If five
years from now the
yield simply returned to its level of a decade ago (and just in case you think I'm cherry picking, over the past 25
years it has averaged a 7.5 %
yield and
at the low in 1981 was twice that),
bond investors would suffer a meaningful loss of capital.
Contrast that to the S&P 500, which
yields just a fraction of a percent less than the
bond and we expect will grow earnings
at about 6 % per
year for the next five
years.
In a country where the unemployment rate is
at a 20 -
year low and industrial output is approaching historical highs, fueling inflation concerns, a 10 -
year government
bond yield of 1.5 % is totally inappropriate and will naturally spur people to buy real estate.
The
yield on the 2 -
year bond fell 313 basis points to 21.2 percent
at 3:22 p.m. in Athens.
In the
bond market, Treasuries were higher, but little - changed, with the 2 -
year yield right
at 2.5 % and the 10 -
year sitting
at 2.96 %.
«We remember vividly 35
years ago staring
at long - term impeccable
bonds trading
at 15 % to 17 %
yields, thinking; «Why bother trading, hedging and knocking ourselves out?
These conditions comprise the following: S&P 500 overvalued with the Shiller P / E (the ratio of the S&P 500 to the 10 -
year average of inflation - adjusted earnings) greater than 18; overbought with the S&P 500 within 3 % of its upper Bollinger band (2 standard deviations above the 20 - period average)
at daily, weekly, and monthly resolutions, more than 7 % above its 52 - week smoothing, and more than 50 % above its 4 -
year low; overbullish with the 2 - week average of advisory bullishness (Investors Intelligence) greater than 52 % and bearishness below 28 %; and
yields rising with the 10 -
year Treasury
bond yield higher than 6 - months earlier.
And during each of those prior
yield curve inversions my answer has been the same: Because in two
years your high -
yielding bond will mature and you'll be renewing
at much lower rates.
At this point, it's human nature to say — as I've often heard from clients over the last 39
years, whenever short rates rise above long rates — why buy a 20 -
year bond when I get a higher
yield on a 2 -
year piece of paper?