Sentences with phrase «year climate variability»

Year - to - year climate variability in the form of drought or flooding already has large - scale effects on food security today.

In fact, the El Niño / La Niña cycle is the world's biggest source of year - to - year climate variability.

While present in palaeoclimate records, the drivers behind 20 - year climate variability are poorly understood.

Compared to the Arctic, Antarctic sea - ice extent is not as strongly influenced by recent global warming, with year - to - year climate variability still playing a large role in year - to - year changes in Antarctic sea - ice extent.

Because global warming is a long - term process, which can be masked by year - to - year climate variability, it is most clearly revealed in the longest available record of global temperature — i.e., that of surface temperature (Figure 2.1), which is based on stations determined not to have been substantially impacted by urbanization.

His research concerns understanding global climate and its variations using observations and covers the quasi biennial oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation and the annular modes of the Arctic oscillation and the Antarctic oscillation, and the dominant spatial patterns in month - to - month and year - to - year climate variability, including the one through which El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific influences climate over North America.

It ended up changing the limit Jan Veizer and I could impose (from Tx2 < 1 °C, to about 1 - 1.5 °C), but it did not invalidate the apparent role that cosmic rays appear to play on the multi-million year climate variability).

Not exact matches

By comparison, phenacosaur anoles living in cloud forests have had very little exposure to temperature variability for over 10 million years and are very much at risk from climate change, he said.

They concluded that the heavy rains in Europe last year were likely due to natural variability in the climate system rather than climate change.

The scientists studied a marine sediment core off the coast of South Africa and reconstructed terrestrial climate variability over the last 100,000 years.

For the last six years, BAMS has published a December issue containing research on extreme weather events from the previous year that seeks to disentangle the role of anthropogenic climate change from natural variability.

Using math and computer skills, he developed systems models showing 150 years of climate variability.

In recent years, many studies have sought to unsnarl the role of anthropogenic climate change from natural variability on extreme weather events (SN: 1/20/18, p. 6).

Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology, and co-author Dr Vladimir Janković, a science historian specialising in weather and climate, say the short - term, large variability from year to year in high - impact weather makes it difficult, if not impossible, to draw conclusions about the correlation to longer - term climate change.

This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - lived El Niño - like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean.

The crucial question now is whether the temperature changes in the Pacific reflect a natural variability in the climate that might reset itself in a few years or whether the shift to weaker long rains is a permanent result of human - induced climate change.

The annual variability and trends in loggerhead nesting numbers in Florida are associated with long - term survival at sea from hatchling to maturity, combined with climate - driven changes in mature female foraging areas within a year or two before nesting.»

«A lot of the year - to - year variability is for all practical purposes random and unpredictable,» said Sobel, who also directs a new Columbia University Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate.

Such variability between years is the reason why the number of chicks dying from climate change is not a tidy, ever - increasing figure each year.

The paradox is that this season stands in such stark contrast to the past 11 years of drought, highlighting the types of variability that climate change can wreak on the hydrological cycle.

In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).

El Niño is a weather pattern characterized by a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure in the Pacific Ocean, which causes climate variability over the course of years, sometimes even decades.

Currently, ACME collaborators are focused on developing an advanced climate model capable of simulating 80 years of historic and future climate variability and change in 3 weeks or less of computing effort.

The PBL found that «this statement is not directly a statement of climate change, but of climate variability: in individual years, drought can cause up to 50 per cent yield reductions».

Both of El Niño's counterparts will be looked at more closely in a 15 - year programme studying climate variability known as CLIVAR, which is the follow - up to TOGA.

Unlike the freakish situation in California, where several years of low snowfall and rainfall are serving as a reminder of the tremendous natural variability in Pacific - influenced weather, and the need to always be vigilant when it comes to managing water supplies, the situation in Washington resembles the parched climate - changed normal for swaths of the West in the decades ahead.

Scientists see a large amount of variability in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when looking back at climate records from thousands of years ago.

«My view on this is that the research needs to broaden out to have more of a focus on variability more generally so that a) we can predict the next few years better b) we can refine our estimates of the sensitivity of the climate system to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.»

«This pattern didn't change because of previous mass extinctions or ancient climate variability, but instead, early human activities 6,000 years ago suddenly began resetting a basic property of natural communities.»

«Based on the satellite data gathered, we can identify areas that, over the past 14 years, have shown high sensitivity to climate variability,» says researcher Alistair Seddon at the Department of Biology at the University of Bergen (UiB).

While natural processes continue to introduce short term variability, the unremitting rise of CO2 from industrial activities has become the dominant factor in determining our planet's climate now and in the years to come.

Scientific drilling in the Great Rift Valley: The 2005 Lake Malawi Scientific Drilling Project — An overview of the past 145,000 years of climate variability in Southern Hemisphere East Africa

In the past 15 years, the oceans have warmed, the amount of snow and ice has diminished and sea levels have risen, explains Lisa Goddard, an expert in climate variability at Columbia University.

In other words, there was considerable climate variability throughout the past 2,000 years, but most of the variability appears to have occurred regionally in the Northern Hemisphere.»

The climate models provided pre-industrial control simulations (i.e natural variability only) and 20th century simulations, with the control simulations being a mimimum of 500 years long.

Although one low year is not enough to tell if the sign of the trend is changing it is may be a sign that the climate change signal is starting to emerge from the noise of natural variability.

«It is odd to me to think of century - scale hydroclimate variability in terms of «extremes», a term typically reserved in climate science for timescales of hours to years.»

Ultimately, in forests not otherwise limited by energy or nutrients variability in moisture availability with natural and climate oscillations may drive establishment success between years (League and Veblen 2006), with indirect disturbance effects (e.g., fires, landslides, insect outbreaks, and pathogen attacks) greatly affecting long - term recruitment success (Clark et al. 2016).

After obtaining precise ice shelf height data, the researchers used a regional climate model to work out how much of the variability on a year - to - year basis was due to snowfall (which causes ice shelves to grow taller) versus ocean - driven melting (which causes ice shelves to thin from below).

The climate information in particular is tricky to work with in such snapshot comparisons because it can fall prey to the ups and downs of natural year - to - year variability, Doney said.

«The reconstruction of past climate reveals that recent warming in the Arctic and in the Northern Hemisphere is highly inconsistent with natural climate variability over the last 2000 years.»

Moreover, any internal variability in the system will be superimposed on this even stronger growing positive trend, shifting the base climate into a state not seen for at least a few million years.

Natural climate variability of the Arctic atmosphere, the impact of Greenland and PBL stability changes K. Dethloff *, A. Rinke *, W. Dorn *, D. Handorf *, J. H. Christensen ** * AWI Potsdam, ** DMI Copenhagen Unforced and forced long - term model integrations from 500 to 1000 years with global coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea - ice models have been analysed in order to find out whether the different models are able to simulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) similar to the real atmosphere.

By looking at the signatures of climate change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability.

For instance, an influential analysis by Hawking & Sutton (2009)(link to figures) has suggested that internal climate variability account for only about 20 % of the variance over the British isles on a 50 - year time scale.

I don't think anyone denies that the sun matters for climate, but the question is whether the variability of the sun in recent history has had the impact that we project from greenhouse gases over the next 100 — and there, I think, a majority of your «AGW» ers» would think the evidence suggests that changes in human forcing will likely be several times (at least) larger than any solar variability we've seen in a thousand years or more.

There will undoubtedly also be a number of claims made that aren't true; 2008 is not the coolest year this decade (that was 2000), global warming hasn't «stopped», CO2 continues to be a greenhouse gas, and such variability is indeed predicted by climate models.

Figure 1.4 http://cybele.bu.edu/courses/gg312fall02/chap01/figures/figure1.4.gif shows the natural variability of the annual mean surface temperature on several different spatial scales from a climate model simulation for 200 years.

In the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change — an additional global mean warming of 1 degree Celsius above the last decade — is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to it.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).