That might seem small at first glance, but relative to the current three -
year cohort default rate of approximately 11 percent, it is a substantial change.
In their analysis of three -
year cohort default rates, Looney and Yannelis (2015) highlight the rapid increases in defaults among borrowers in the for - profit sector, and to a lesser extent among community college borrowers.
Not exact matches
The statistics presented here will also differ from the «
cohort default rates» analyzed by Looney & Yannelis (2015) and used by the Department of Education for accountability purposes, which track borrowers for three
years once they enter repayment.
Still, examining patterns of
default over a longer period for the 1996
cohort can help us estimate what to expect in the coming
years for the more recent
cohort.
Among students who
defaulted within 12
years, the median length to
default once in repayment was 2.1
years for the earlier
cohort but 2.8
years for the more recent
cohort.
Among all new students entering the for - profit sector in 2004, nearly half had
defaulted within 12
years (47 percent), compared to «just» 24 percent in the 1996
cohort.
Figure 1 plots the resulting cumulative rates of
default relative to initial entry for borrowers in both
cohorts, with the data points after
year 12 for the 2003 - 04
cohort representing projections.
If we assume that the cumulative
defaults grow at the same rate (in percentage terms) for the 2004
cohort as for the earlier
cohort, we can project how
defaults are likely to increase beyond
year 12 for the 2004
cohort.
For example, for the 2003 - 04
cohort, the
default rate among borrowers was about twice as high at for - profits as at public two -
year institutions (52 percent versus 26 percent).
In 2006, a U.S. Department of Education report noted that black graduates were more likely to take on student debt, and in 2007, an Education Sector analysis of the same data found that black graduates from the 1992 - 93
cohort defaulted at a rate five times higher than that of white or Asian students in the 10
years after graduation (Hispanic / Latino graduates showed a similar, but somewhat smaller disparity).
This can be seen in Figure 1, in which
default rates for the recent
cohort are actually slightly lower in
Years 2 - 4 than for the earlier
cohort.
This could lead us to overestimate how many students from the 2003 - 04
cohort will experience
defaults in the coming
years.
[4] This allows for the most comprehensive assessment yet of student debt and
default from the moment students first enter college, to when they are repaying loans up to 20
years later, for two
cohorts of first - time entrants (1995 - 96 and 2003 - 04 entrants, which I refer to as the BPS - 96 and BPS - 04 as shorthand).
• Trends for the 1996 entry
cohort show that cumulative
default rates continue to rise between 12 and 20
years after initial entry.
The unit of analysis underlying the tabulations is the person - institution - fiscal
year (as in official
cohort default rates).
So regardless of whether the US Department of Education counted them as part of the FY2005
cohort or as part of the
cohort for their graduation
year, they would have distorted the
cohort default rates for one or more fiscal
years.
As the Center for American Progress found in mid-October, one - half of black or African American borrowers from the 2003 - 04 entering
cohort defaulted on a federal loan within 12
years of starting college.
Changes: We have revised § § 668.412 to specify that an institution may not include on the disclosure template information about completion or withdrawal rates, the number of individuals enrolled in the program during the most recently completed award
year, loan repayment rates, placement rates, the number of individuals enrolled in the program who received title IV loans or private loans for enrollment in the program, median loan debt, mean or median earnings, program
cohort default rates, or the program's most recent D / E rates if that information is based on fewer than 10 students.