In their analysis of three -
year cohort default rates, Looney and Yannelis (2015) highlight the rapid increases in defaults among borrowers in the for - profit sector, and to a lesser extent among community college borrowers.
That might seem small at first glance, but relative to the current three -
year cohort default rate of approximately 11 percent, it is a substantial change.
Not exact matches
The statistics presented here will also differ from the «
cohort default rates» analyzed by Looney & Yannelis (2015) and used by the Department of Education for accountability purposes, which track borrowers for three
years once they enter repayment.
Figure 1 plots the resulting cumulative
rates of
default relative to initial entry for borrowers in both
cohorts, with the data points after
year 12 for the 2003 - 04
cohort representing projections.
If we assume that the cumulative
defaults grow at the same
rate (in percentage terms) for the 2004
cohort as for the earlier
cohort, we can project how
defaults are likely to increase beyond
year 12 for the 2004
cohort.
For example, for the 2003 - 04
cohort, the
default rate among borrowers was about twice as high at for - profits as at public two -
year institutions (52 percent versus 26 percent).
In 2006, a U.S. Department of Education report noted that black graduates were more likely to take on student debt, and in 2007, an Education Sector analysis of the same data found that black graduates from the 1992 - 93
cohort defaulted at a
rate five times higher than that of white or Asian students in the 10
years after graduation (Hispanic / Latino graduates showed a similar, but somewhat smaller disparity).
This can be seen in Figure 1, in which
default rates for the recent
cohort are actually slightly lower in
Years 2 - 4 than for the earlier
cohort.
• Trends for the 1996 entry
cohort show that cumulative
default rates continue to rise between 12 and 20
years after initial entry.
The unit of analysis underlying the tabulations is the person - institution - fiscal
year (as in official
cohort default rates).
So regardless of whether the US Department of Education counted them as part of the FY2005
cohort or as part of the
cohort for their graduation
year, they would have distorted the
cohort default rates for one or more fiscal
years.
Changes: We have revised § § 668.412 to specify that an institution may not include on the disclosure template information about completion or withdrawal
rates, the number of individuals enrolled in the program during the most recently completed award
year, loan repayment
rates, placement
rates, the number of individuals enrolled in the program who received title IV loans or private loans for enrollment in the program, median loan debt, mean or median earnings, program
cohort default rates, or the program's most recent D / E
rates if that information is based on fewer than 10 students.