Here Isaac Held cautiously states that a 500 -
year equilibration time is more appropriate while outlining the limitations of simple two - box models.
Not exact matches
OTOH
equilibration of the upper ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere with the deep abyss takes a few thousand
years.
OTOH
equilibration of the upper ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere with the deep abyss takes a few thousand
years.
This will cause a higher climate sensitivity, but with a long lag'til
equilibration (800
years, perhaps; sound familiar?).
Corresponding time for surface + tropospheric
equilibration: given 3 K warming (including feedbacks) per ~ 3.7 W / m2 forcing (this includes the effects of feedbacks): 10
years per heat capacity of ~ 130 m layer of ocean (~ heat capacity of 92 or 93 m of liquid water spread over the whole globe)
[Response: But the mixing time for the atmosphere is short, about a
year for exchange between the hemispheres and much shorter for mixing along latitude circles, shorter than the thermal
equilibration time from rising greenhouse gases.
Rather, excess CO2 returns toward baseline at a multitude a different rates, with chemical
equilibration in the ocean occurring over decades (depending on depth), ocean carbonate buffering through sediment dissolution requiring centuries to millennia, and eventual restoration of carbonate sediment levels by terrestrial weathering occurring over hundreds of thousands of
years — a long «tail» that can account for as much as 20 to 40 percent of CO2 excess in the estimates described by David Archer et al in CO2 Atmospheric Lifetimes.
However, you could guess that the OSBL is much thicker than 100 microns because IPCC says the assumed
equilibration would take a
year.
IPCC: «
Equilibration of surface ocean and atmosphere occurs on a time scale of roughly one
year.
But a single time scale just doesn't express the multi-compartment transfer rates — a fifth to a third of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere after even a 40 -
year half - life of ocean
equilibration (which quite frankly agrees with my numbers — I get about a back of the envelope number of ~ 37
years half - life, depending on the saturation limits), and the rest will be around for quite a while.
a fifth to a third of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere after even a 40 -
year half - life of ocean
equilibration
The latter would suggest that 99 % of
equilibration is over after 16
years.
The published values for the GISS - E model are 0.75 deg / Wm2 (or 2.7 deg for a doubling of CO2) and a full
equilibration time amounting to several hundred
years.
The truly extraordinary thing is that the ECS used in the Schwartz model is 0.345 deg / Wm2 with the
equilibration constant set at 3.5
years.