Most of the economic payoff does not fall within the four - to eight -
year horizon of our duly elected public officials.
Not exact matches
«So if you have a long - term view that markets are frothy, they have taken some
of the froth out and if you are really investing for a 10 -
year horizon, yeah you buy the stocks that are solid, that you think you like the underlying earnings and you go into them and you wait until they calm down,» he said.
I think with the last accord, with the escalator [automatic
year - over-
year increase in transfer dollars] built in it really sort
of dampened down the usual federal - provincial tensions, and for whatever reason it also then fell off the media and public
horizon.
And with a backlog
of 737 orders
years into the future, there are no signs
of difficulty on the
horizon,» Bombardier representative Peter Lichtenbaum said.
At the CEO Investor Forum, Bloomberg said CEOs should pinpoint ways their companies can create value over time
horizons of several
years for all
of their stakeholders.
Five
years into the PlayStation 2's existence, it had three great «Grand Theft Auto» games, with «God
of War 2» still on the
horizon.
«Most private equity investment is still in traditional energy — there's a lot
of money to be made there,» Heck said, noting a typical PE investment time
horizon of 3 to 7
years.
To reduce the risk
of capital losses, sell bonds and bond funds with a 10 -
year - plus time
horizon and buy short - term notes instead, says Dominic Bellissimo, a portfolio manager with Dynamic Funds.
Apart from a growing European economy, there are less political risks on the
horizon compared to the start
of last
year.
To see what is on the
horizon in terms
of data being used to boost productivity, we checked out a range
of new devices on display at CES this
year to help you focus, de-stress, sleep and manage life's little details.
To help extend your savings at retirement over a longer time
horizon, work with an advisor to assess both your investment allocation and your draw - down strategy in relation to the number
of years you expect to live, he said.
On paper, it's easy to make a case for a three - or four -
year time
horizon - long enough for appreciation to offset the real estate agent's commission and other costs
of buying and selling.
She hopes sales will pay for the
years of surgeries and treatments still on her
horizon.
Instead investors with slightly longer investment
horizons should use it a buying opportunity, particularly considering that several secular trends suggest that there are many more
years of life in this cycle.
«Valuations have historically explained 60 - 90 %
of subsequent returns over a 10 -
year horizon.
This would be the equivalent
of almost $ 400 billion over the 10 -
year budget
horizon in the United States.
Part
of your risk tolerance comes from your time
horizon: If you need the money in two to three
years, you shouldn't take on as much risk as you would if you didn't need the money for 40
years.
That sticking point comes with other hard issues still on the
horizon, including dairy, auto parts, the dispute resolution system and the U.S. push for a review
of NAFTA every five
years.
The shorter duration
of the bond effectively shortens the investment
horizon that is required to «immunize» the investor's terminal wealth (though not necessarily
year - to -
year values) from market fluctuations.
With the exception
of most
of the measures announced in its Economic Action Plan, the measures proposed in most budgets extend beyond the two -
year budget time
horizon.
While stocks have a terminal value beyond a 10 -
year period, the effects
of interest rates and nominal growth on those projections largely cancel out because higher nominal GDP growth over a given 10 -
year horizon is correlated with both higher interest rates and generally lower market valuations at the end
of that period.
The earlier the life
of your company, the more skeptical the VC will be
of any projections
of revenue, and any time
horizon greater than one
year.
This may sounds incredibly risky given my 5
year time
horizon to retire at the age
of 35 then you would be right — but she recommended that I diversify my equity exposure to include more international stocks (which I am doing more research on) and pull back on my bonds.
We've recently emphasized that our estimates for probable S&P 500 nominal total returns have now declined below zero on every
horizon of 7
years and shorter.
«My feeling is that really since the latter part
of last
year, a number
of challenges have raised up for the stock market,» Paulsen said, noting that stock valuations are higher, interest rates are rising, the labor market is tightening, and it appears inflation could finally be on the
horizon.
The first is the number
of years until you expect to need the money — also known as your time
horizon.
If we think the company's profits will grow more than five
years, then we look at the implied values
of a longer (up to 100
years) forecast
horizon.
The Bank
of England has been more explicit in focusing on an optimal
horizon of eighteen months to two
years (Batini and Haldane 1999; Bean 2003).
While we don't have a magic crystal ball to predict where the markets may be headed next, we do have a team
of respected professionals who recently assembled to discuss whether they think last
year's economic momentum could continue — and where they see potential threats on the
horizon.
Most economists would be agreeing that there's going to be some form
of economic slowdown in the Northern European, North American economies over the next two to three
years — so within any reasonable investment time
horizon.
Because our model focuses on quantifying the market's expectations for the future financial performance
of a company as embedded in the stock price, we need a more dynamic DCF model than the traditional models that force the valuation
of every stock into a 5 or 10 -
year forecast
horizon.
«You may have a 40 -
year time
horizon, it can even be 50 -
year time
horizon, and that is a lot
of time to allow the market up and down movement to impact your portfolio in a positive way.»
Finally, we inverted our model to calculate the sustainable withdrawal rate (the maximum rate at which a given portfolio may be drawn down without depleting the portfolio before the end
of the 35 -
year retirement
horizon) for each
of the 100 scenarios.
Most investors should be thinking at least in terms
of five
year horizons, if not decades.
While in this example the difference might be a difference
of less than $ 100 over a
year, your investment time
horizon is far longer than one
year.
The essential thing to understand about valuations is that while they are highly reliable measures
of prospective long - term market returns (particularly over 10 - 12
year horizons), and
of potential downside risk over the completion
of any market cycle, valuations are also nearly useless over shorter segments
of the market cycle.
For the past few
years I have been struck by the stark contrast between investment charts that show the impact
of compounding interest for a 25
year old versus a 30
year old with a 30
year retirement time
horizon.
Meanwhile, extreme valuations imply the likelihood
of steep market losses over the complete cycle, and also for poor S&P 500 total returns on a 10 - 12
year horizon, but valuations often have little effect on near - term market behavior.
Equities are essentially 50 -
year duration investments at current valuations, and even if investors are passive and don't hold any view about future market returns at all, one
of the basic principles
of financial planning is to align the duration
of ones assets with the expected
horizon over which the funds are expected to be spent.
The only alternative to this view is to imagine that the collapses that followed valuation extremes like 1929, 1973, 2000, and 2007 somehow emerged entirely out
of the blue, ignoring the fact that valuations accurately projected likely full - cycle losses, and remained tightly correlated with total returns over the subsequent 10 - 12
year horizons.
Market pricing
of future inflation on a five - to 10 -
year horizon — which the European Central Bank (ECB) has typically focused on — has rebounded back near 2 %.
When an investment
horizon begins at depressed market valuations and ends at elevated market valuations, the total returns
of investors over that
horizon are always glorious (for example, the total return
of the S&P 500 averaged nearly 20 % annually during the 18 -
year period between the 1982 low and the 2000 peak).
From Jim Jubak
of MSN Money, we get an article detailing 5 blue chip dividend stocks he thinks long term investors (10
Years + time
horizon) will do well by dollar cost averaging in now and reinvesting dividends.
Going back five
years yields even better results for investors and potentially reinforces the value
of having a long - term time
horizon and being patient:
The main points here are that QE has encouraged the dramatic overvaluation
of virtually every class
of investments; that these elevated valuations don't represent «wealth» (which is embodied in the future stream
of deliverable cash flows, not in the current price); that extreme valuations promise dismal future outcomes for investors over a 10 - 12
year horizon; and that until a clear improvement in market internals conveys a resumption
of speculative risk - seeking by investors, the current combination
of extreme valuations and increasing risk - aversion, coming off
of an extended top formation after persistent «overvalued, overbought, overbullish» extremes, represents the singularly most negative return / risk classification we identify.
I agree it's best to avoid durations that are longer than your time
horizon with all bond funds but, in the case
of linker funds, your time
horizon needs to be under 20 - something
years.
On the basis
of nominal total returns (including dividends), we estimate zero or negative returns for the S&P 500 on every
horizon shorter than about 8
years.
So, you have a lot
of small venture funds taking typical vc equity stakes in the 1st round; but no pockets or consortia network to see the deal through to success on a 5
year plus
horizon.
CPI inflation in
year - ended terms should stay in a narrow range around this profile over much
of the forecast
horizon, though volatility in oil and food prices over the past
year will continue to have some effect on the
year - ended figures in future quarters.
That would be less than one fourth
of the
year - over-
year gain that occurred over the previous 12 months, suggesting that a cooling trend is on the
horizon.