When she estimated the ages of abyssal hills flanking the ridge, she found that they matched the strong 100,000 -
year ice age cycle.
Not exact matches
Over hundreds of thousands of
years, the Neandertal lineage developed successfully in western Eurasia and survived severe fluctuations between colder and warmer climactic
cycles of the
Ice Age.
Curiously, the decline in atmospheric oxygen over the past 800,000
years was not accompanied by any significant increase in the average amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, though carbon dioxide concentrations do vary over individual
ice age cycles.
It provides new insight into the climatic relationships that caused the development of major
ice -
age cycles during the past two million
years.
The research takes as its desired stable state the Holocene epoch, the 10,000
years since the last
ice age during which human civilization has flourished, and attempts to identify the key variables that might push planetary
cycles past safe thresholds.
Using sediment gathered from the ocean floor in different areas of the world, the researchers were able to confirm that as the
ice sheets started melting and the climate warmed up at the end of the last
ice age, 18,000
years ago, the marine nitrogen
cycle started to accelerate.
About 1.2 million
years ago, the sedimentation rate accelerated — the same time that Earth's
ice ages began to occur more intensely at 100,000 -
year intervals rather than in 40,000 -
year cycles.
The dominant signal in the temperature record (the white line in the above figure) is a 100,000
year cycle where long
ice ages are broken by short warm periods called interglacials.
While the Earth might have naturally
cycled back into an
ice age in 50,000
years» time in the absence of emissions, we're unlikely to see one for at least 100,000
years because of the CO2 we put into the atmosphere.
Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (as with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological activity can warm the climate, and slight changes in solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter in duration than the
ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand
years in duration (the Younger Dryas).
Yet another theory has been advanced by Peter Huybers who argued that the 41,000 -
year cycle has always been dominant, but that the Earth has entered a mode of climate behavior where only the second or third
cycle triggers an
ice age.
I think the 450ppm 35 million
years ago is referring to a time * before * the current geologic period of
ice -
age cycles.
How much it might vary is very difficult to tell, but for instance, it is clear that from the Pliocene to the Quaternary (the last ~ 2,5 million
years of
ice age cycles), the climate has become more sensitive to orbital forcing.
In geological time, the balance of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering between two states (our current 100,000
year ice age warm period
cycle).
Ice ages have occurred in a hundred thousand
year cycle for the last 700 thousand
years, and there have been previous periods that appear to have been warmer than the present despite CO2 levels being lower than they are now.
Moreover, random interactions within the sun's magnetic field can flip the fluctuations from one
cycle length to the other, matching the paleo - temperature record for
ice ages on Earth for over the past 5.3 million
years, when
ice ages occurred occurred roughly every 41,000
years until about a million
years ago when they switched to a roughly 100,000 -
year cycle.
As astronomical
cycles they are predictable into the future and will cause another
ice age probably in around 50,000
years (that depends on where the threshold for glaciation is, and what future CO2 levels will be at that time), but there is no way the Milankovich
cycles could explain the current global warming.
(And the average
age of all
ice never got above single digits) Because most of the thickness increases come in the first couple of
years, and most old
ice is «old» because it is nearing the end of its natural
cycle (where it thins to zero.)
He's talking about the supposed ~ 60
year natural
cycle over a benign recovery from the little
ice age, as slightly influenced by mankind's emissions.
For example, the
ice age — interglacial
cycles that we have been locked in for the past few million
years seem to be triggered by subtle changes in the earth's orbit around the sun and in its axis of rotation (the Milankovitch
cycles) that then cause
ice sheets to slowly build up (or melt away)... which changes the albedo (reflectance) of the earth amplifying this effect.
These are well described
cycles, which have become known as Milankovitch
cycles, after the name of the Russian scientist who for the first time in the 1920s was able to correlate these orbital and rotational variations (which other scientists had known about for many
years) with the dates of various
ice ages which had been more recently determined.
Dr. Archer has worked on the ongoing mystery of the low atmospheric CO2 concentration during glacial time 20,000
years ago, and on the fate of fossil fuel CO2 on geologic time scales in the future, and its impact on future
ice age cycles, ocean methane hydrate decomposition, and coral reefs.
One of the lessons drawn from comparing Greenland to Antarctica and many other places is that some of the temperature changes (the
ice -
age cycling) are very widespread and shared among most records, but other of the temperature changes (sometimes called millennial, or abrupt, or Younger - Dryas - type) are antiphased between Greenland and the south, and still other temperature changes may be unrelated between different places (one anomalously cold
year in Greenland does not tell you the temperature anomaly in Australia or Peru).
-- which by the way is an argument for why the Ruddiman hypothesis for an «expected»
ice age is not valid - we should be «expecting» a 40,000
year warm period similar to what was recently discovered at Vostok for the time ~ 400,000
years ago when we were last at this point in the eccentricity
cycle!)
This gradual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere reduces the overall greenhouse effect and thus slowly draws the entire planet into an
ice age, driving further
ice sheet expansion over tens of thousands of
years (a complete
ice age cycle is around 100,000
years)
However, our fortune would last much longer than that: the Milankovitch
cycles can be calculated over millions of
years with astronomical precision (and incidentally be used to predict the beginning of all the past
ice ages), and according to that, the next major climate change would arrive only in about 50,000
years.
Four times since the last
ice age, at intervals roughly 3,000
years apart, the Northeast has been struck by
cycles of storms far more powerful than any in recent times, according to a new study.
For the
ice age — interglacial variations of the last few million
years, a transition occured within the last million
years where a 100,000
year timescale seemed to become dominant, whereas previously the variations followed the obliquity (~ 40,000
years) and precession
cycles.
Ever since the planet descended into a
cycle of
ice ages and warm intervals 2 million
years ago, glaciers have surged and ebbed like a slow, cold tide.
A new analysis of the dramatic
cycles of
ice ages and warm intervals over the past million
years, published in Nature, concludes that the climatic swings are the gyrations of a system poised to settle into a quasi-permanent colder state — with expanded
ice sheets at both poles.
In geological time, the balance of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering between two states (our current 100,000
year ice age warm period
cycle).
The
ice at the GISP2 site in central Greenland was only one
ice age thick before they hit rock, (as opposed to Antarctica where the
ice is more than 6
cycles 700,000
years thick) indicating that ALL the Central Greenland
ice melted during the previous warming
cycle (125,000
years ago).
Before the transition, glacial
cycles, consisting of cold
ice ages and milder interludes, typically lasted about 40,000
years — but those weaker
cycles gave way to longer - lasting icy eras with
cycles lasting roughly 100,000
years.
The combined effects of oceans and vegetation are known from
ice cores: dCO2 / dT is about 8 ppmv / °C, pretty constant over 4
ice age — interglacial
cycles in 420,000
years and surprisingly linear, despite that a number of players in this game are acting far from linear.
Ice age timing has been set for the past million
years or so by a 100,000
year cycle where the eccentricity of the earth's orbit changes.
«The 100,000 -
Year Ice -
Age Cycle Identified and Found to Lag Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Orbital Eccentricity.»
Starting with the
ice ages that have come and gone in regular
cycles for the past nearly three million
years, there is strong evidence that these are linked to regular variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, the so - called Milankovitch
cycles (Figure 1).
Ice ages have occurred in a hundred thousand
year cycle for the last 700 thousand
years, and there have been previous periods that appear to have been warmer than the present despite CO2 levels being lower than they are now.
We can be pretty comfortable that there won't be another full
ice age for several thousand years but we should be rather uncomfortable that the solar cycle 24 is mimicking the Dalton Minimum that brought an extension of the Little Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
ice age for several thousand years but we should be rather uncomfortable that the solar cycle 24 is mimicking the Dalton Minimum that brought an extension of the Little Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
age for several thousand
years but we should be rather uncomfortable that the solar
cycle 24 is mimicking the Dalton Minimum that brought an extension of the Little
Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return to.
Glacial
cycles (
ice ages) are set in motion by (1) periodic wobbles in the tilt of the Earth's rotation, (2) changes in the tilt of its axis, and (3) the shape of its orbit occurring over tens of thousands of
years.
Within this far more recent part of our planet's history the current disturbance of the radiative balance is unique at least over the last 20,000
years, stretching the entire Holocene up to the point where the Milankovitch
cycles thought it fit to end the last
ice age.
Since longer historical trends have long period
cycles of several hundred
years, and we obviously were emerging from the LIttle
Ice Age to the present, I see no clear reason to suspect that we will continue the general rise at all.
Just in the last 650,000
years there have been seven
cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last
ice age about 7,000
years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.
Changes in insolation due to the sun's orbital
cycles, or Milankovitch
cycles, correspond with the recent 100,000 -
year cycles of past major
ice ages.
According to the academy report on climate, we may be approaching the end of a major interglacial
cycle, with the approach of a full - blown 10,000 -
year ice age a real possibility.
Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11 -
year cycle, as did the Little
Ice Age, should be a priority for governments.
Seriously, if you look up
ice ages in Wikipedia you'll see that the glacial intervals have been about 100,000
years for the last 10
cycles.
Ice ages have occurred in a 100,000 -
year cycle for the last 700,000
years, and there have been previous interglacials that appear to have been warmer than the present despite lower carbon - dioxide levels.
Indeed, the Minoan, Roman and Medieval warm periods suggest one
cycle has a
cycle length of ~ 900
years and most — possibly all — global warming of the last 300
years is recovery from the Little
Ice Age which is part of this
cycle.
According to forcing from these various orbital
cycles and oscillations the climate should be stable with a very slight cooling and the next
ice age would have been in 30 - 50K
years.