Based on the spread between nominal and inflation protected yields, the expected 10 -
year inflation rate is 2.75 percentage points, up more than 100 basis points in the past year.
The «monthly» inflation numbers you typically see are generally a year over
year inflation rate on that month.
But this trend is beginning to change: As of 10 January, the expected 10 -
year inflation rate rose to 1.98 % (source: Bloomberg data).
The food and non-alcoholic beverage group also recorded a year - on -
year inflation rate of 6.7 percent, a 0.6 percentage point higher than the March rate.
Analysis of the figures shows that the non-food group recorded a year - on -
year inflation rate of 16.3 percent in April compared to 15.6 percent in March.
The year - on -
year inflation rate for imported items also hit 15 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than that of locally produced items of 12.2 percent.
Meanwhile imported items in the month of November 2016 recorded year — on —
year inflation rate of 16.2 percent.
The Greater Accra region recorded the highest year — on —
year inflation rate of 18.1 percent, followed by the Ashanti region with 15.8 percent while the Volta region recorded the lowest of 13.1 percent.
At the same time, 2018 year to date inflation rate is -0.67 % and year over
year inflation rate is 1.63 %.
Zimstats said on Oct. 16 that «the year on
year inflation rate for the month of September 2017 as measured by the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 0.78 percent, gaining 0.64 percent» on the August 2017 inflation rate of 0.14 percent.
Not exact matches
The ECB, however, said after its latest policy - making meeting Thursday that it still doesn't expect to raise its own interest
rates until «well past» September next
year — and even then, only if it is absolutely sure that
inflation is back on track after a decade of undershooting.
The Fed maintained its forecast for two more
rate hikes this
year, following speculation on whether budding
inflation would push it toward raising its outlook to three more increases.
«I can at most venture a personal judgment, based on some examination of the historical evidence, that the initial effects [on employment] of a higher and unanticipated
rate of
inflation last for something like two to five
years; that this initial effect then begins to be reversed; and that a full adjustment to the new
rate of
inflation takes about as long for employment as for interest
rates, say, a couple of decades.»
Gold fell 1.2 percent on Friday after stronger than expected U.S. payrolls data shored up expectations that a pick - up in
inflation will spur further U.S. interest
rate hikes this
year, boosting the U.S. currency, in which it is priced.
So we do see some upward bias to
inflation, but modest, and our economist says the Fed is raising
rates only three times this
year is a result.
Gas prices are rising at a
rate of 1 to 2 percent per
year, plus
inflation; meanwhile, the cost of electricity generation is going down.
Hence the question: Is it reasonable to expect that marginally looser policies would now lead to more than tripling of the growth
rate (to 1.5 - 2 percent) over the next two
years, while raising the
inflation rate from -0.3 percent to 2 percent — as the Bank of Japan is promising?
«A decrease in nominal GDP growth resulting solely from a one -
year, 1 - percentage - point decrease in the
rate of GDP
inflation» reduces the budgetary balance by $ 1.9 billion.
Gold got a boost Friday on weaker - than - expected
inflation and retail sales figures, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve's ability to continue normalizing interest
rates this
year.
Simply enter in your estimates for real GDP growth, GDP
inflation, the 10 -
year bond
rate and your desired contingency reserve in the yellow cells, and the sheet will estimate the projected surplus or deficit for fiscal
years 2015 - 16 through 2019 - 20.
That's exactly what sparked the stock market correction last month: a higher - than - expected average hourly earnings number in January's jobs report ignited fears that
inflation might finally be coming to life, and in response the Federal Reserve may look to hike
rates more aggressively than the three projected increases for this
year.
Most analysts expect the first
rate hike to come in September of this
year, but that the pace of subsequent
rate hikes will be slow, taking into account continued middling economic growth and below - target
inflation.
Each
year the company raises its menu prices to cover increasing food costs, but it generally keeps those price hikes below the
rate of
inflation for «food away from home» to stay competitive.
To be considered a success, the Fed needs its
rate hike to be followed next
year by continued U.S. growth, continued low unemployment, and, perhaps most in doubt, a turn higher in
inflation.
Traders are suddenly worried about interest
rates (although anyone older than 30 has to be amused that 2.85 % on the Treasury 10 -
year is a source of panic), worried about
inflation (although after the last decade of stagnant wages, Friday's 2.9 % rise should be cheered, not jeered), and worried about a tax - fueled spike in growth (with this report from Powell's Atlanta colleagues leading the way.)
China's consumer
inflation rate grew at its fastest pace in six months in October as food prices rose, while producer prices accelerated to a near - five
year high, exceeding expectations.
A more reasonable level for Carney to reach over the next two
years is closer to 3 %, Koeppl says, to keep ahead of
inflation and reduce the negative effects of low
rates.
A jobs number miss will bolster the case that the Fed should wait to raise interest
rates until next
year and perhaps calm fears of wage
inflation.
-- Still, experts say that
inflation isn't yet strong enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest
rates — something that isn't expected to occur until the end of the
year.
A Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that deductibles had gone up 63 % in the past five
years, 10 times the
rate of
inflation.
U.S. consumer spending barely rose in February amid delays in the payment of income tax refunds, but the biggest annual jump in
inflation in nearly five
years supported expectations of further interest
rate hikes this
year.
However, altering the minimum wage every
year based on average wages or realized
inflation rates is difficult in practice, as there is a lag in collecting that data.
Powell in statements throughout the
year, culminating with his recent Senate confirmation hearing, has been clear he sees little risk of
inflation that would prompt the Fed to raise
rates faster than expected, and takes weak wage growth as a sign that sidelined workers remain to be drawn into jobs.
GIC said that over the 20
years through the end of March, its annualized real
rate of return, or the return excluding the global
inflation rate, was 3.7 percent a
year.
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest
rate unchanged Wednesday but noted that
inflation is nearing its 2 percent target
rate after
years of remaining undesirably low.
At the Federal Reserve's target
rate of 2 percent,
inflation could erode more than $ 73,000 of a retiree's purchasing power over 20
years if that person were receiving the monthly average Social Security retirement payment of $ 1,341.
Bond yields rose and stocks slumped after an unexpected rise in consumer
inflation to its fastest pace in a
year, making it more likely the Fed will raise interest
rates three or more times this
year.
In 2014, per person health - care spending grew 5.4 percent, well above the overall
inflation rate of less than 1 percent, and the center expects spending to rise at an average
rate of 5.8 percent a
year from 2014 to 2024.
Bets the European Central Bank might consider raising interest
rates by the end of 2018 due to evidence of higher
inflation and business activity in the euro have lifted the euro, which was poised for its best yearly performance versus the greenback in 14
years.
Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker — a known proponent for raising
rates and a non-voting member of the FOMC this
year — said Tuesday there was a strong case for raising interest
rates, arguing that borrowing costs may need to rise significantly to keep
inflation under control.
The U.K. had been expected to follow close behind the Federal Reserve in raising interest
rates for the first time in nearly a decade, but with lower commodity prices and weak wage growth still keeping a lid on
inflation, economists now think that the U.K. may not raise
rates till 2017 — even though new data out Wednesday showed the employment
rate hit a 45 -
year high of 74 % in the three months to November.
In 2007, the
inflation rate was approximately 2.5 %, and the respondents expected only a modest increase in the
rate to 2.7 % this
year.
If the Fed raises
rates this
year, as most of his colleagues expect, «things could go okay, but you are creating a risk of further declines in where market - based
inflation expectations are, basically to the credibility of our
inflation target, and I think you are creating downside risks our pursuit of our employment mandate.»
Interest
rates and
inflation should also stay low next
year.
There are some signs that
inflation could come out of hiding in the next 18 months, but I would be very surprised if we saw a substantial increase in long
rates in the coming couple of
years just because there are too many disinflationary macro headwinds.
«Now, even if
inflation does accelerate over the remainder of the
year, there's still reason for the bank to be cautious on future
rate hikes.»
Stocks have plunged in the last week as traders worried about rising interest
rates and
inflation, bringing an end to more than a
year of historically low volatility.
«This makes the Fed look nuts» for continuing to raise interest
rates this
year, Blanchflower said, particularly since officials have chronically undershot their 2 %
inflation target for the bulk of the economic recovery.
Recent economic data point to some growth firming,
inflation remains hard to find and long - term
rates are up by barely 10 basis points (bps) from where they started the
year, according to data accessible via Bloomberg.
In its latest forecasts, the ECB estimated a GDP (gross domestic product)
rate of 2.2 percent for this
year and 1.8 percent for next
year and core
inflation to reach 1.2 percent in 2017 and 1.3 percent in 2018.