Since 10 -
year interest rates declined by about 0.5 percentage points between 2008 and 2013, the velocity of the monetary base should have decreased by about 0.085 points.
Not exact matches
The
decline is attributable, in large part, to slow growth in pension values — tweaks to assumptions about
interest rate and life spans had inflated them the prior
year — and underwhelming corporate performance.
The
decline is noteworthy because you'd think the stars were aligned for a boom in the construction of dream homes: the economy has been churning out jobs steadily for a
year, real - estate prices are high, and
interest rates are low.
Following the major market
decline Monday, traders changed their view on how many times the Fed will raise
interest rates this
year.
Before policymakers and pundits conclude that the rise in student loans is the cause of the
decline in
rates of entrepreneurship among millennials — and decide that debt relief is the way to boost entrepreneurial activity among young people today — they should consider that waning
interest in entrepreneurship predates the student loan crisis by many
years.
A Federal Reserve working paper from last
year found that at least three - quarters of the
decline in new charters is attributable to the weak economy and low
interest rates.
With the 10 -
year yield (risk free
rate) at roughly 2.55 %, and the Fed Funds
rate at 1.5 % (two more 0.25 % hikes are expected in 2018), it's hard to see
interest rates declining much further.
Progress in a few areas has been solid: slashing of bureaucratic red tape has led to a surge in new private businesses; full liberalization of
interest rates seems likely following the introduction of bank deposit insurance in May; Rmb 2 trillion (US$ 325 billion) of local government debt is being sensibly restructured into long - term bonds; tighter environmental regulation and more stringent resource taxes have contributed to a surprising two -
year decline in China's consumption of coal.
Treasuries extended
declines from October, pushing 10 -
year yields to a five - week high, as the probability of a Federal Reserve
interest -
rate increase by
year - end hovered near 50 percent.
Because
interest rates have been on the
decline for the past thirty plus
years and can't fall much further, investors have turned their attention to what happens when
rates have a meaningful rise.
Though an improving economy later this
year could lead to a pickup in loan demand and raise earnings potential for banks, it's true that traditional banks are struggling with low
rates and
declining net
interest margins.
Therefore we expect the
decline in
interest rate futures, specifically the 10 -
year Treasury Notes and 30 -
year Treasury Bonds to be a temporary effect of speculative exuberance, and for
interest rate futures to rally through the end of the month as the heavily short speculators are forced out of their positions.
What we have really seen over the past several
years, in terms of the appreciation of markets and the
decline of
interest rates based on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of investors in bonds and stocks to earn an adequate return relative to their expected liabilities.
This failure can be attributed to the assumption made each
year by the Finance Department that
interest rates would
decline over the forecast period.
Over the last twenty
years, investors have witnessed a steady
decline in the
interest rate on investment grade bonds, GICs and term deposits.
Bond indexes have
declined this
year, as the growing economy has led the Fed to raise
interest rates and investors have grown increasingly concerned about the potential for accelerating inflation.
We could take the $ 16 billion we have in cash earning 1.5 % and invest it in 20 -
year bonds earning 5 % and increase our current earnings a lot, but we're betting that we can find a good place to invest this cash and don't want to take the risk of principal loss of long - term bonds [if
interest rates rise, the value of 20 -
year bonds will
decline].»
After 30
years of
declining interest rates, bond investors are beginning to worry that
rates will go higher — especially after the events of May 2013.
Our view for broader and stronger economic growth this
year, with only slightly higher
interest rates from current levels, is favorable for equity valuations — especially after the latest
decline in equity prices.
If
interest rate expectations many
years forward have fallen, then expectations about the permanent level of
interest income should have
declined as well.
Given
interest rates have been
declining for the past 10
years -LSB-...]
And if there's runway inflation and sky high
interest rates back to the Carter
years like you say, then I hope to have the assets to inflate with inflation and the cash to buy assets in a
decline.
Suppose that over the first 10
years of your holding period,
interest rates decline, and the yield - to - maturity on your bond falls to 7 %.
Over the first six weeks of the
year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
declined 10 %, as the prospect of
interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a slump in oil prices, and concerns about economic conditions in Europe and China caused the long - running bull market to stumble.
The most recent and thorough of these, by Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith at the Bank of England, concluded that for the industrial world, neutral real
interest rates have
declined by about 4.5 percentage points over the last 30
years and are likely to stay low in the future.
he says while
interest rates have been in a
declining trend for more than thirty
years that's about to change, and investors should think about restructuring their portfolios.
Short term
interest rates remain near zero, 10 -
year bond yields have
declined below 2 %, and our estimate of 10 -
year S&P 500 total returns has
declined to just 1.4 % (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these historically - reliable estimates).
For example, the average
interest rate for a 30 -
year fixed mortgage has
declined from roughly 4.35 % in December 2016 down to 3.9 % today.
Why pay a higher
rate when the average length of homeownership is 7
years and
interest rates are in a structural
decline?
The way that
interest rates gradually turned upward over several
years despite the relentless downward pressure applied by the central bank suggests that we are dealing with the end of a very long - term
decline.
The
decline in world
interest rates over the past few
years has seen the servicing burden of foreign debt fall to around the levels of the early 1980s.
Because prospective 12 -
year annual market returns have never failed to reach at least 8 % by the completion of a market cycle, regardless of the level of
interest rates, we view a 40 % market
decline as a rather minimal target over the completion of this market cycle.
Profits after
interest have tended to
decline over the past couple of
years, reflecting the impact of the 1994
interest rate increases and a tendency for corporate leverage to increase, but they remain at high levels compared with historical averages; they can be expected to receive a further modest boost as
interest -
rate reductions in the second half of last
year begin to feed through into profit results.
CORPORATE FINANCING NEWS: CORPORATE DEBT By Gordon Platt US
interest rates have been in a general
declining trend since 1981, when Paul Volcker was Federal Reserve chairman and the 10 -
year Treasury bond yielded 16 %.
Interest rates in the eighties tended to be much higher than over the past decade, although it's worth remembering, when Labour boasts of kickstarting interest - rate stability, that the trend of decline from double - digit rates started in 1992, four - and - a-half years before the party came t
Interest rates in the eighties tended to be much higher than over the past decade, although it's worth remembering, when Labour boasts of kickstarting
interest - rate stability, that the trend of decline from double - digit rates started in 1992, four - and - a-half years before the party came t
interest -
rate stability, that the trend of
decline from double - digit
rates started in 1992, four - and - a-half
years before the party came to power.
There's something like 80 million people in the U.S. according the recent surveys that are
interested in birds in one way or another, you know, feed birds or watch birds, take their kids to a wildlife refuge and yet we keep hearing about more and more reports of
declines in birds, you know, doubling of the extinction
rates in birds globally in the last 50
years and right now we are on the verge of what I call the third renaissance of bird conservation, first being the Audubon movement at the turn of the century, the second being the Rachel Carson movement of the»60s and third we are on the verge of it right now.
Such statements reflect the current views of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the general economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or
declining sales and net income due to various factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping
rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the
rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher
interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses, the risk that the transactions with Microsoft and Pearson do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion contemplated by the relationship with Microsoft, including that it is not successful or is delayed, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Microsoft and Pearson commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
Such statements reflect the current views of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the effect of the proposed separation of NOOK Media, the general economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or
declining sales and net income due to various factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping
rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the
rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher
interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, risks associated with the commercial agreement with Samsung, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses (including with respect to the timing of the completion thereof), the risk that the transactions with Pearson and Samsung do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion previously undertaken, including any risks associated with a reduction of international operations following termination of the Microsoft commercial agreement, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Pearson and Samsung commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, the risks associated with the termination of Microsoft commercial agreement, including potential customer losses, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
The big
decline in May - June was caused by an indication by the Federal Reserve that it may begin tapering its quantitative easing strategy by
year's end, which caused the domestic
interest rates to rise and emerging market currencies to fall against the dollar.
Over the five
years since the financial crisis bottomed, pundits have warned
interest rates must rise soon, and with it
declines in bond prices.
All else equal, annuity payments are smaller when
interest rates are low as is the case today (which no doubt accounts for the fact that immediate annuity sales have been
declining lately, falling almost 20 % the first half of this
year).
While I still believe U.S. yields are likely to rise modestly by
year's end, last week's
decline in yields is a reminder that we're in a «low - for - long»
interest rate environment.
Take Advantage of Lower
Rates With FHA Streamline Refinance While the streamline refinance has been available for many years, the recent decline in mortgage rates has sparked the interest of many existing homeow
Rates With FHA Streamline Refinance While the streamline refinance has been available for many
years, the recent
decline in mortgage
rates has sparked the interest of many existing homeow
rates has sparked the
interest of many existing homeowners.
Thirty
years ago, you could have invested your retirement portfolio in bonds and enjoyed income, relative «safety» and growth as
interest rates steadily
declined.
And second question — how do you protect against the possibility, yes its still a possibility that should at least be acknowledged, that
interest rates will continue downwards and continue the decades long trend of
interest rates declining (some might even say its a much longer trend if you look at historical
interest rates over 100 +
years).
Despite the relatively positive returns for many asset classes in recent
years, the
decline in
interest rates has proven to be a large impediment to restoring the funded status of pension plans to pre-crisis levels.»
For nearly 30
years,
declining inflation and
interest rates have perpetuated a massive bull market in bonds, producing excellent total returns.
Dividends of mortgage REITs have
declined substantially over the last two
years as companies adjusted their dividend payouts in light of higher
interest rate volatility and lower earnings forecasts.
«Strong economic growth, low -
interest rates,
declining unemployment, increasing wages and a growing population all helped boost home buyer demand in our region last
year,» Oudil said.
Return of the Stockpickers The primary distinguishing economic trend of the past 30
years is, of course, a steady
decline in
interest rates, until the federal - funds
rate sank to about zero — and stayed there for five
years.