If black students in the sample continue to lose ground through 9th grade at the rate experienced in the first two
years of school, they will
lag behind white students on average by a full standard deviation in raw math and reading scores and by more than two - thirds of a standard deviation in math even after controlling for observable characteristics (the gap would be
substantially smaller in reading).
Sure, not every pick is going to beat the market every
year, but if your entire portfolio has been
lagging substantially for several
years, you have to face facts: few people, professional or amateur, can consistently outsmart the markets.