Perhaps something else causes the 11
year magnetic cycle, and the timing in relation to the Jupiter - Saturn (but also Uranus - Neptune) cycle modulates its strength?
The 22 -
year magnetic cycle was discovered in 1925 by the American astronomer George Ellery Hale.
The general pattern results from the superposition of various cycles related to sun activity (11 years Schwabe cycle, 22
years magnetic cycle, Wolf 90 years cycle...) and oceans» thermal oscillations (PDO, AMO, ENSO...)
Not exact matches
These fluctuations correspond neatly to the 11 -
year solar
cycle, in which the Sun's rotation gradually winds up its
magnetic field into contorted coils, giving rise to flares and sunspots that emit ultraviolet and X-ray light.
However, a new study finds that the seasons are not the only thing changing Titan's atmosphere: its chemical makeup fluctuates according to the Sun's 11 -
year cycle of
magnetic activity.
Because of this, the next solar
cycle depends on characteristics from as far back as 40
years previously — the sun has a
magnetic memory.»
The Sun's activity — including changes in the number of sunspots, levels of radiation and ejection of material - varies on an eleven -
year cycle, driven by changes in its
magnetic field.
The sun's
magnetic activity waxes and wanes roughly every 11
years, generating more dark sunspots at the peak of the
cycle and fewer at the trough.
Usually our star follows a predictable pattern, becoming more and less active (as measured by flares, sunspots, and
magnetic storms) on an 11 -
year cycle.
THE SUN appears to have started its next
cycle of sunspots two
years ahead of schedule, heralding a period of solar
magnetic storms that could trigger radio interference and auroras in the night sky.
This period covers three of the Sun's 11 -
year activity
cycles, which see fluctuations in the rate at which energetic particles are created by the interaction between the Sun's
magnetic field and its hot, highly charged outer layers.
If you had asked me five
years ago, I would have said by and large we have an idea about how the
magnetic cycle works on the sun, says Rosner.
Every 11
years or so, the sun
cycles from periods of high
magnetic field activity to low activity and back again.
The big problem is to explain a lag of more than 30
years when direct measurements of quantities (galactic cosmic rays, 10.7 cm solar radio,
magnetic index, level of sunspot numbers, solar
cycle lengths) do not indicate any trend in the solar activity since the 1950s.
The number of sunspots varies as solar
magnetic activity does — the change in this number, from a minimum of none to a maximum of roughly 250 sunspots or clusters of sunspots and then back to a minimum, is known as the solar
cycle, and averages about 11
years long.
Moreover, random interactions within the sun's
magnetic field can flip the fluctuations from one
cycle length to the other, matching the paleo - temperature record for ice ages on Earth for over the past 5.3 million
years, when ice ages occurred occurred roughly every 41,000
years until about a million
years ago when they switched to a roughly 100,000 -
year cycle.
Tapping reports no change in the sun's
magnetic field so far this
cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another
year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.
This well fit the 22 -
year solar
magnetic cycle.
There is a 22 -
year signal in Cosmic rays, which is a result of the
cycle of the
magnetic field (you can see it e.g. in the 11 -
year running mean curve of the Climax CRF).
[Response: In this estimation, you divided a small amplitude ba an even smaller (the 22 -
year Hale
cycle is not very strong, and not even discernable in the sunspot record, even though we have reasons to believe it exists since the
magnetic fields flip), thus not a very reliable method.
If Gray and Idso are correct — a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in only roughly 0.3 C warming — then roughly 0.5 C of the 0.7 C warming in the last 70
years was due to solar
magnetic cycle modulation of planetary cloud cover.
William: Yes, however, there are sets of other observations that logically supports the assertion that the majority of the warming in the last 150
years was due to solar
magnetic cycle changes rather than the increase in atmospheric CO2 and that the planet is about to significantly cool due to the current solar
magnetic cycle change.
A few months after my sawtooth model of the AMO (i.e. mid-2013) I concluded that the mechanism I suggested in column 4 of that poster, namely seismic interference at the core - mantle boundary, CMB, would be too strongly damped to yield any sort of reliably oscillatory behavior, and my 2013 talk at AGU FM makes no mention of any oscillation except the 20 -
year magnetic Hale
cycle, which can be seen clearly even in CET back to the end of the Maunder minimum.
The 23
cycles of warming and cooling correlate with solar
magnetic cycle changes and have a period of roughly 1500
years.
Geomagnetic factor, where Hale
cycle and the Earth's
magnetic field go in and out of phase, which is far greater than normally considered, and it is source of the 60sh
year cycle.
Yes, the solar 22
year cycle is pretty weak, but the Earth's
magnetic field has strongish 22
year component too.
Strength of the Earth's magnetosphere is directly proportional to the strength of the Earth's
magnetic field at any time scale from days to months
years, solar
cycles or Hale
cycles periods, centuries, millennia..
The simple answer is that it doesn't matter because the phenomenon Svensmark points to, namely the interaction between the galactic
magnetic field and the Sun's, operates on the same 21 -
year cycle that F3 removes.
But the 11
year solar
cycle is the only
cycle which consists of a flip of the
magnetic poles?
The majority (roughly 75 %) of the warming in the last 50
years has caused by solar
magnetic cycle changes rather than the increase in atmospheric CO2?
So we have an ENSO
cycle, a Hale solar
magnetic (not sunspot)
cycle and a 1000
year cycle that might be speculated to be greenhouse gases.
Look at figure 12 in the attached which shows the number of solar
magnetic storms per
year, from 1865 to present and the solar
cycle number.
There has been an abrupt change from a set of very, very, high solar
magnetic cycle activity to what will be apparent next
year is a special Maunder minimum.
Systematic differences in the overall shape of successive 11 -
year modulation
cycles and similarities in the alternate 11 -
year cycles seem to be related to the polarity reversals of the polar
magnetic field of the Sun.
The solar
magnetic cycle that flips polarity at the poles approximately every 11
years is dependent on the reversing flux from spent sunspots that migrate to the poles.
The solar
magnetic cycle is rapidly changing, it appears the sun will be spotless based on observations by the end of this
year.
William Astley says: July 21, 2013 at 12:51 pm The solar
magnetic cycle is rapidly changing, it appears the sun will be spotless based on observations by the end of this
year.
Hale suggested that the sunspot
cycle period is 22
years, covering two polar reversals of the solar
magnetic dipole field... The start of the 22 -
year cycle begins... This process of sunspot formation and migration continues until the solar dipole field reverses (after about 11
years).
Leif Svalgaard says: July 21, 2013 at 3:55 pm William Astley says: July 21, 2013 at 12:51 pm The solar
magnetic cycle is rapidly changing, it appears the sun will be spotless based on observations by the end of this
year.
However i had applied this same idea to the longer Bruckner
cycle, which at 35 or 36
years presents the reversed
magnetic polarity but at double the period of 71
years has the polarities the same.»
It has continuous Sun - quakes (the solar equivalent of Earthquakes), exhibits an easily recognized 11 -
year cycle of
magnetic activity and sunspots, and oscillates on a much shorter time scale like a pulsar [See: Peter Toth, «Is the Sun a pulsar?»
You should find some conciliation in a short note at the end of the web page: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-SW.htm stating: There is strong 22
year component, coinciding with the Solar
magnetic (Hale)
cycle, which is not used in the reconstruction.
I imagine several people will have spotted that the length of the apparent
cycle in the top figure of Palle et al. (EOS) is close to the length of the Sun's
magnetic cycle (the Hale
cycle) which is about 22
years.
Although the sunlight that illuminates our days provides a seemingly reliable beacon, the Sun's visible luminosity varies in tandem with the Sun's 11 -
year magnetic activity
cycle and these changes could affect our climate.
With more than 13
years of sunspot data collected at the McMath - Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Matt Penn and William Livingston observed that the average
magnetic field strength declined significantly during
Cycle 23 and now into
Cycle 24.
GCRs are modulated by both solar
magnetic field, which is largely unpredictable in strength except for generalities associated with 11 -
year sunspot
cycle and is also modulated by unpredictable events like nearby supernovas, and by more predictable very very long slow changes in intensity due to the solar system traversing spiral arms of our galaxy and wandering above and below the galactic plane in
cycles lasting tens and hundreds of millions of
years.