Sentences with phrase «year observational record»

The 29 year observational record of September sea ice extent has zero autocorrelation, zero skew, and only a weak correlation with the extent in the prior June.

Not exact matches

Observational records indicate that 11 of the past 12 years are the warmest since reliable records began around 1850.

For a start, observational records are now roughly five years longer, and the global temperature increase over this period has been largely consistent with IPCC projections of greenhouse gas — driven warming made in previous reports dating back to 1990.

Indeed, tree - ring chronologies provide much longer histories than observational records and corroborate that variability and synchrony have risen over the past hundred years, and to levels that are as high as any observed over the past three centuries, according to the researchers.

People were more likely to imitate popular choices, particularly those choices that are on the upswing, a dynamic Goldstone and his IU colleague Todd Gureckis had documented earlier in an observational study of baby names in 130 years of U.S. Social Security records.

reconstructing sea - level and ice - sheet changes on timescales ranging from the 20th century, to the late Holocene, to the last 150 thousand years, through statistical and geophysical modeling of geological and observational records;

With the availability of multiple years of data from new and improved passive instruments launched as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and active instruments belonging to the A-Train constellation (L'Ecuyer and Jiang 2010), a more complete observational record of ERB variations and the underlying processes is now possible.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

Talk to me in another 15 years — Based on advances in modeling technology and on the additional observational record, I guarantee that I will have modified my opinion several times during that period.

However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero.

As early as February 2016, climate scientists were making evidence - based predictions that 2016 would become the hottest year in the observational record.

The day - by - day, month - by - month, year - by - year, etc. sequencing of values, however, will not correspond to observations, since climate models solve a «boundary value problem» and are not constrained to reproduce the timing of natural climate variability (e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation) in the observational record.

Updating this analysis using observational data through 2011 (not even including the 2012 record low sea ice extent), the 32 - year trend (1979 - 2011) is -530 thousand square km per decade, and the 20 - year trend is -700 thousand square km per decade.

Observational records show that anthropogenic - influenced climate change has already had a profound impact on global and U.S. warm season climate over the past 30 years, and there is increasing contrast between geographic regions that are climatologically wet and dry - the hypothesis that the «wet gets wetter, dry gets drier» is seen in a new paper by Chang et al..

Having said that there were around forty years at the start of the 18th century that seem broadly comparable to the modern day according to observational and crop records with very warm summers although still colder than now winters on the whole Tonyb

While the statistics of 30 - year (or longer) NAO trends and associated surface climate impacts can not be reliably determined from the short observational record, we have made use of a simple relationship between the statistics of trends of any length and the statistics of the interannual variability, provided the time series is Gaussian (Thompson et al. 2015).

The study of solar cycles and their climatic effect is hampered by a very short observational record (~ 400 years), an inadequate understanding of the physical causes that might produce centennial to millennial changes in solar activity, and an inadequate knowledge of how such changes produce their climatic effect.

The reconstruction and observational record were smoothed with a 40 - year lowpass filter to highlight the best - resolved frequencies (Fig. 2b).

The dataset employs the latest analysis techniques and takes advantage of digitised observational data to provide a daily record of Australian temperatures over the last 100 years.

The full range of Outlooks submitted this month lies within the range of the 10 lowest years of sea ice extent in the observational record.

I'd even propose a totally selfless design that takes the point of view of a scientist 20 year from now who, endowed with 20 years of observational records, looks back and says, «I wish those 2008 simulations had tried to do this and that; I could assess them now and use the validation to learn what that modeled process is really worth.»