Hobbs, W., & Willis, J. (2013) Detection of an observed 135
year ocean temperature change from limited data.
Detection of an observed 135
year ocean temperature change from limited data Geophysical Research Letters DOI: 10.1002 / grl.50370
Not exact matches
While this is bad news for the planet, it's good news for climate
change scientists who have — for the last two decades — puzzled over warming trends in
ocean surface
temperatures for nearly 20
years.
Year - to - year changes in Greenland melt since 1979 were already known to be closely tied to North Atlantic ocean temperatures and high - pressure systems that sit above Greenland during the summer — known as summer blocking hi
Year - to -
year changes in Greenland melt since 1979 were already known to be closely tied to North Atlantic ocean temperatures and high - pressure systems that sit above Greenland during the summer — known as summer blocking hi
year changes in Greenland melt since 1979 were already known to be closely tied to North Atlantic
ocean temperatures and high - pressure systems that sit above Greenland during the summer — known as summer blocking highs.
Based on modeling results by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which predicted that Pacific
Ocean temperatures would rise by 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next 50
years, a Canadian and U.S. team of scientists examined the distributional
changes of 28 species of fish including salmon, herring, certain species of sharks, anchovies, sardines and more northern fish like pollock.
Looking at shifts in Manley's winter
temperatures from
year to
year, he says, gives a good reading of important natural cycles that influence climate, such as
changes in
ocean circulation like the North Atlantic Oscillation.
The study concludes that North Atlantic
ocean temperatures and summer blocking activity will continue to control
year - to -
year changes in Greenland melt into the future.
Changing temperatures and
ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in
ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous
change for 100,000
years.
By next
year, the Argo project will have installed 3,000 floating sensors across all the
oceans, offering a daily snapshot of global patterns of water
temperature and salinity — crucial for predicting the nature and pace of climate
change.
Starting in the 3rd
year of his 5 -
year degree at the University of Vigo, Ourense, in Spain, Añel spent 4 hours a week in Luis Gimeno's Group of Atmospheric and
Ocean Physics at the university's Department of Applied Physics, computing climate
change quantifiers using simple parameters such as precipitation and air
temperature.
Researchers do believe that climate
change contributes to more thawing of the
ocean floor permafrost in the Arctic because they have measured increases in seafloor
temperatures in recent
years.
The underlying pattern in this
year's fire forecast is driven by the fact that the western Amazon is more heavily influence by sea surface
temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and the eastern Amazon's fire severity risk correlates to sea surface
temperature changes in the tropical Pacific
Ocean.
Temperature and pressure
changes over the Southern
Ocean are thought to have pushed these westerlies 3 to 4 degrees south over the last 50
years.
Naturally this article fails to mention that since the hydrosphere is 271 times as massive as the atmosphere, if
oceans are absorbing the heat they are likely to moderate AGW into a nonproblem, as the average
ocean temperature has only
changed by.1 degrees in 50
years, an amount that is probably smaller than measurement error.
It's the
ocean «These small global
temperature increases of the last 25
years and over the last century are likely natural
changes that the globe has seen many times in the past.
The only time period that remotely resembles the
ocean changes happening today, based on geologic records, was 56 million
years ago when carbon mysteriously doubled in the atmosphere, global
temperatures rose by approximately six degrees and
ocean pH dropped sharply, driving up
ocean acidity and causing a mass extinction among single - celled
ocean organisms.
Oceans are very slow to respond to
temperature changes, which is in part why it's so unlikely 2015 will lose the race for warmest
year.
The fact that the observations have a «memory» from month to month (because the
ocean is slow to
change temperature) allows us to predict the annual mean from the
year - to - date average (which implicitly includes the ENSO effect).
Climate scientists would say in response that
changes in
ocean circulation can't sustain a net
change in global
temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower global
temperature on a timescale of one or two
years, but over decades there would be roughly zero net
change).
There are some physics - based theories regarding the nature of climate
change yes, but the ONLY way to test them is on the basis of the sort of evidence that climate scientists have been collecting for many
years now, on, for example, global
temperatures,
ocean temperatures, sea level, frequency of drought, hurricanes, rainstorms, etc..
Here, we elucidate this question by using 26
years of satellite data to drive a simple physical model for estimating the
temperature response of the
ocean mixed layer to
changes in aerosol loadings.
And guaranties that the cited above G8 deal is dead on arrival... Not that the deal will
change anything, except for UK government which has been fantastic on Carbon reductions, The Senator and acolytes would have trouble explaining the disappearing Arctic
Ocean ice, not that someone is capable of «Hoaxing» vanishing multi
year ice, and even further, failing to match their statements with Polar ice disappearing in tandem with world wide
temperatures being flat, not rising for ten
years now, as they like to claim, how to explain the disappearing ice then??? Those trying to explain a long term cycle, beware!
I had a fascinating and fruitful chat with Yair Rosenthal of Rutgers and Braddock Linsley of Columbia University — two authors of an important new Science paper extracting 10,000
years of
temperature changes in fairly deep Pacific
Ocean waters from fossil plankton buried in the seabed off Indonesia.
If La Nina / El Nino can affect global air
temperatures in a period of a few
years, than other
changes in
ocean currents (driven by AGW) can affect global atmospheric heat content in a few
years.
Indeed the ice cores show a remarkable (near) linear response of CO2 to
temperature changes, be it overall ~ 8 ppmv / K for the 420,000
years Vostok ice core, where K more or less reflects the SH
ocean temperature.
Scientists» measurements, over the last 30
years or so, seem to reflect a steady increase in CO2 emissions, which seem to be causing both a rise in
temperature and
change in
ocean ph toward acidity.
Since the
year 2000, land
temperature changes are 50 percent greater in the United States than
ocean temperature changes; two to three times greater in Eurasia; and three to four times greater in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula.
Both are at different time scales, where any (theoretical) influence of CO2 need to
change the
ocean temperatures over a sufficient long period (10 - 30
years), to be visible in the statistics.
Reactions on longer time frames (about 50
years LIA, 600
years glacial - interglacial, many thousands of
years interglacial - glacial) involves (deep)
ocean temperatures,
ocean current
changes, vegetation / land ice area
changes,...
If the rather quick response of CO2 rise /
year just 5 - 9 months after
temperature changes reflects equilibrium with the
oceans, then we are only in physical contact with the upper meters of the
ocean.
Glacial periods during the 100,000 -
year cycles have been characterised by a very slow build - up of ice which took thousands of
years, the result of ice volume responding to orbital
change far more slowly than the
ocean temperatures reacted.
But the
temperature change of 0.45 C took 30
years to work through the
oceans.
Pershing said that
ocean temperatures in the Gulf may start to level off, but factoring in the rate of current carbon emissions, the Gulf of Maine could see a 5 to 7 degree
change over the next 100
years.
Fast forward 25
years, and Trenberth still sees
changes in
ocean temperature as key to understanding the ups and downs of global climate.
Refusing to acknowledge (and actually defending) the statistical malpractice of comparing an 8,000 -
year long - term trend line to a 50 -
year snapshot — a scam that Rosenthal et al. (2013, 2017) employed to claim that
ocean temperatures (0 - 700 m) have
changed more rapidly since the 1950s than at any time during the Holocene.
Subsequently, climate
change has been greatly affected as Antarctic Intermediate Water have cooled and exerted a tremendous effect on tropical sea surface
temperatures for millions of
years via «
ocean tunneling».
A new NASA and University of Tasmania study combined the ship's 135 - plus -
year - old measurements of
ocean temperatures with modern observations to get a picture of how the world's
ocean has
changed since the Challenger's voyage.
All that climatologists have been able to do is forecast for about a decade (it's called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which means every 10
years the Pacific
Ocean temperature changes causing weather
changes.
The
Ocean tectonics, according to the geologic records from North Atlantic show (as I actively advocated for some
years) that the primary
temperature change is a function of the natural processes.
Much of the warming, he says, stems from fluctuations in
temperature that have occurred for millions of
years — explained by complicated natural
changes in equilibrium between the
oceans and the atmosphere — and the latest period of warming will not result in catastrophe.
For example, Kosaka and Xie showed than when the El Niño - related
changes in Pacific
ocean temperature are entered into a model, it not only reproduced the global surface warming over the past 15
years but it also accurately reproduced regional and seasonal
changes in surface
temperatures.
WASHINGTON — A sobering new report warns that the
oceans face a «fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation» not seen in millions of
years as greenhouse gases and climate
change already have affected
temperature, acidity, sea and oxygen levels, the food chain and possibly major currents that could alter global weather.
C: increase in atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial to present is anthropogenic (D / A) S: best guess for likely climate sensitivity (NUM) s: 2 - sigma range of S (NUM) a:
ocean acidification will be a problem (D / A) L: expected sea level rise by 2100 in cm (all contributions)(NUM) B: climate
change will be beneficial (D / A) R: CO2 emissions need to be reduced drastically by 2050 (D / A) T: technical advances will take care of any problems (D / A) r: the 20th century global
temperature record is reliable (D / A) H: over the last 1000
years global
temperature was hockey stick shaped (D / A) D: data has been intentionally distorted by scientist to support the idea of anthropogenic climate
change (D / A) g: the CRU - mails are important for the science (D / A) G: the CRU - mails are important otherwise (D / A)
The issue is that differences in mineral content, salinity, density, and
temperature all affect how the
ocean reacts to, and drives,
changes in weather patterns, climate variations over
years or decades,
ocean current circulation, etc..
NASA Climate Consensus page ««Global warming started over 100
years ago `: New
temperature comparisons using
ocean - going robots suggest climate
change began much earlier than previously thought».
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «on a timescale of two to seven
years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in
temperature are accompanied by
changes in the structure of the subsurface
ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these
changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
Variability in foraminifer δ18O [
ocean temperature] over the past 200
years is below the detection limit [a
change in
ocean heat can not be detected in the past 200
years], but δ18O [
ocean temperature] signatures from two mid-Holocene intervals indicate
temperature swings > 2 °C within 200
years.»
Citing but one example, 2.5 billion
years ago the sun's brightness was 20 percent to 30 percent less than it is today (compared to the 2 percent
change in energy balance associated with a doubling of carbon - dioxide levels) yet the
oceans were unfrozen and the
temperatures appear to have been similar to today's.
In a study last
year, the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program indicated that an increase in sea - surface
temperatures would lead to a proliferation of
ocean bacteria species like Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus that cause seafood - borne diseases.
Actually, he said that if CO2 actually
changed more than 200
years after the
temperature increase, then the
oceans would have gotten way too hot.