Not exact matches
There is another period of 18
years, from 1979 to 1997, when global
mean temperature was constant while ENSO
oscillations ruled.
But there is a well developed ENSO
oscillation there which makes it easy to determine that global
mean temperature did not change for an entire 18
year period.
All that climatologists have been able to do is forecast for about a decade (it's called the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation) which
means every 10
years the Pacific Ocean temperature changes causing weather changes.
This period exhibits a well developed ENSO
oscillation which makes it easy to determine that global
mean temperature did not change for an entire 18
year period.
«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation through the last 8,000
years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal
Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation in the global
mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic
Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade
oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST
Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal
oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»
The long term trend (secular linear trend) is also an
oscillation (~ 200
year and longer cycles)-- that
means it's also a periodic variation.
And yes, there is a 60 -
year oscillation in global
mean sea level.
... Chambers et al. prudently state that «one should be cautious about computations of acceleration in sea level records unless they are longer than two cycles of the
oscillation,» noting that this advice «applies to interpretation of acceleration in GMSL using only the 20 -
year record of satellite altimetry and to evaluations of short records of
mean sea level from individual gauges.»
With the climate having entered a cold PDO (pacific decadel
oscillation) which
means 20 — 40
years of cooler, wetter weather, more prevalent and stronger La Ninas (like we are currently having), and less prevalent and weaker El Ninos.
The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60 -
year oscillation, as reported for the global
mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012).
Evidences for a quasi 60 -
year North Atlantic
Oscillation since 1700 and its
meaning for global climate change.
Evidences for a quasi 60 -
year North Atlantic
Oscillation since 1700 and its
meaning for global climate change Published in Theoretical Applied Climatology (DOI 10.1007 / s00704 -011-0499-4) last august
Judith's point that AO and PO
oscillations and multidecadal waves which may go in 60, 80 or 100
year cycles is completely ignored by saying that Natural variation should be ignored over a long time as it reverts to the
mean.
The reason for this is that the barycentric
oscillation reverts to a
mean of zero as the positive and negative excursions balance out over the
years.
Is there a 60 -
year oscillation in global
mean sea level?
Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60 -
year oscillation in GMSL, the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional
mean sea level rise.
70 - 90
years oscillations in global
mean temperature are correlated with corresponding
oscillations in solar activity.
Another paper is Mazzarella and N. Scafetta, «Evidences for a quasi 60 -
year North Atlantic
Oscillation since 1700 and its
meaning for global climate change,» Theor.
A. Mazzarella and N. Scafetta, «Evidences for a quasi 60 -
year North Atlantic
Oscillation since 1700 and its
meaning for global climate change,» Theor.
Are you are saying that the Southern
Oscillation Index is going to change from its
mean index of 0 in the coming
years?
5) No change in global
mean temperature pattern (0.06 deg C per decade warming and
oscillation of 0.5 deg C every 30
years) since record begun 160
years ago
The
mean global temperature stayed constant throughout these
oscillations, a total of 18
years.
Girma Orssengo rightly demonstrates that one can not determine climate sensitivity empirically from observed changes in CO2 concentration and in global
mean surface temperature unless one either studies periods that are multiples of ~ 60
years to cancel the transient effects of the warming and cooling phases of the Pacific and related ocean
oscillations or studies periods centered on a phase - transition in the ocean
oscillations.
It also shows the period for one complete
oscillation is about 60 deg C [presumably you
meant «
years»].