Not exact matches
Moreover, random interactions within the sun's magnetic field can flip the fluctuations from one cycle length to the other, matching the
paleo - temperature
record for ice ages on Earth for over the past 5.3 million
years, when ice ages occurred occurred roughly every 41,000
years until about a million
years ago when they switched to a roughly 100,000 -
year cycle.
You implied that there was nothing in the
paleo record showing a rapid release of methane but there was a paper in October suggesting a very rapid release which caused warming of 5C in 13
years (and rendered the ocean surface acidic).
Over even longer time scales (hundreds of
years) there are a number of
paleo -
records that correlate with
records of cosmogenic isotopes (particularly 10Be and 14C), however, these
records are somewhat modulated by climate processes themselves (the carbon cycle in the case of 14C, aerosol deposition and transport processes for 10Be) and so don't offer an absolutely clean attribution.
It is a fact that there are cyclic warming and cooling events (periodicity 1400
years plus or minus a beat timing of 500
years) in the
paleo record and roughly every 8000
years to 12,000
years the cooling is abrupt and there is a larger magnitude change.
The Reference also has a Table 1 of other proxies and
paleo - temperature
records that show periodicities of between, «55 - 76
years.»
You can see from comments on this blog that
paleo records from millions of
years ago are more valued than our recent experiences during the Holocene.
Unlike the stock market and instrumental
record,
paleo has a few million
years of data that might help better define what those dragon kings are.
It shows the Hockey stick
paleo reconstructions - smoothed 50
year records - and decadal CET instrumental (and reconstruction) The blue lines closed at the top represent glacial retreats and closed at the bottom glacial advances.
If you agree with the
paleo proxy
records that, according to Bob's link demonstrate a tiny variation in climate over thousands of
years, you are effectively agreeing with the statement above.
You are comparing 50
year smoothed
paleo model proxieswith annual highly variable instrumental
records.
These real - world events can be constructed not only from the historical
record, but, for example, from the
paleo -
record and by sequencing different historical time periods together (e.g, the driest 10
years in the historical
record, etc).
If the
paleo part of the chart has a granularity of 120
years, and the present temps are the annual instrumental
record (tortured to bend upwards), then it is clear that the medieval warm period (error bars) still make it stick up above the most stretched out hockey stick to date.
Natural variability has never been properly evaluated with respect to the human and
paleo records dating back millions of
years and only now with satellite measurements do we have the ability to evaluate weather and climate trends with any degree of statistical probity.
Few people have read
paleo - climatology text books, are aware of the glacial / interglacial cycle, are aware that the paleoclimatic
record has unequivocal evidence of cyclic gradual changes and cyclic abrupt climate events, are aware that the abrupt climate change events such as the abrupt termination of the last 22 interglacial periods lacks an explanation, are aware that all of the past interglacial periods are short (roughly 12,000
years) and that they have ended abruptly, and so on.
The warming trend of the past 100
years is not duplicated in the
paleo record.
For example, we know that if the climate wasn't changing, it would be broken, since the evidence tells us that the climate is in a state of continuous change, moreover; nothing about contemporary change is unusual compared to the
paleo record, and this is even true when we compare changes in recent 5
year averages to the changes in multi-century averages
recorded in ice cores.
The coarser 50
year time scale noted in figure 4 appears to have completely masked the decadal variability of up to 2C through the
record which is up to ten times larger than the
paleo reconstructions using proxies.
There is no argument about the accuracy of the temps or sea level rise during this 30
year period that occurs with
paleo records.
The dating of the Sargasso Sea
record is 50
years out, because they misunderstand the use of «BP» (Before Present) dates in
paleo -
records, which refers to before 1950 AD, not the present day.
Also, the extreme event validity is very difficult one for climate models because even in the
paleo record we don't have an exact analogue for what we might be looking at in 100
years.
There are periods of millions of
years in the deep
paleo record when CO2 is high and the planet is cold and periods when CO2 is low and the planet is warm.