Sentences with phrase «year periodicity of»

After learning there was a 60 - 70 year periodicity of el nino / la ninas why would you assume that's the extent of it?

The 11 - year averaging period minimizes the effect of variability due to the 10 — 12 year periodicity of solar irradiance as well as irregular El Niño / La Niña warming / cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Not exact matches

The researchers found that the wobble of the Earth Tilt has a periodicity of about 33,000 years, but that within that time span, there is another seesaw of wobble every 1.2 million years.

It is found that the El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven not only by the seasonal heating, but also by three more external periodicities (incommensurate to the annual period) associated with the ~ 18.6 - year lunar - solar nutation of the Earth rotation axis, ~ 11 - year sunspot activity cycle and the ~ 14 - month Chandler wobble in the Earth's pole motion.

And a study by Rahmstorf (2003) also concludes that the LIA may be the most recent cold phase of the D - O cycle, and his research suggests that the 1,470 - year periodicity is so regular that it's more likely due to an orbital cycle than a solar cycle.

Over the last ~ 1 million years, we have experienced large ice ages and interglacials with a periodicity of around 100,000 years.

(see Part 1 of the Link) The way to go is simply to state clearly what the working hypothesis is and what are the reasonable assumptions that went into them — in my case the basic assumptions are that the current warming peak is a synchronous peak in the 60 and 960 year periodicities and that the 10Be and neutron count records are the best proxy for solar activity.

The underlying 20th century rise is part of the 960 year periodicity.

The 960 year carrier wave variability can then be modulated — i.e shorter term forecasts can be then made by looking at and projecting forwards on top of the carrier wave the shorter term multidecadal periodicities in the PDO AMO etc..

So another neat trick to convince yourself that you found a solar - climate link is to use a very narrow band pass filter centered around 11 years, to match the rough periodicity of the sun spot cycle, and then show that your 11 year cycle in the data matches the sun spot cycle.

Thinking of Bond Events; there seems to be a natural oscillation with a 1,500 years or so periodicity; so «balance» is never actually achieved.

It is a fact that there are cyclic warming and cooling events (periodicity 1400 years plus or minus a beat timing of 500 years) in the paleo record and roughly every 8000 years to 12,000 years the cooling is abrupt and there is a larger magnitude change.

The Reference also has a Table 1 of other proxies and paleo - temperature records that show periodicities of between, «55 - 76 years.»

I read in one report at http://ebooks.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/escidoc:8469:1/component/escidoc:8468/9810.pdf that experts think the decadal length periodicity in LOD is related to interaction of the earth's molten core and mantle, (the orbital period of Jupiter is 11.86 years and may be related IMO.)

A ∼ 60 - year periodicity was detected the vortex strength which affects the evolution of the large - scale atmospheric circulation.

Amongst the well - known proxies that have revealed a millennial - scale climate variability during the Holocene, the ice - rafted debris (IRD) indices in the North Atlantic developed by Bond et al. (1997, 2001) present a cyclicity of 1470 ± 500 years, which matches the 1228 ± 327 - year periodicity evidenced in the Mar Menor, considering the respective uncertainties in the periodicities.

Spectral analyses performed on the sand percentage revealed four major periodicities of 1228 ± 327, 732 ± 80, 562 ± 58, and 319 ± 16 years.

The 100,000 year problem is that the periodicity of glacials changes from ~ 41,000 years to ~ 100,000 years some 800,000 years ago.

Along with the 30 year periodicity in the Pacific in both hemispheres — is the clearest demonstration of the stochastically forced resonance of the system long suspected as an origin of low frequency climate variability.

It has also been known that a component of the variability seems to have a full period of about 60 years although the evidence has not been strong on any real periodicity or even quasi-periodicity.

You just need to add that more zonal jets when the sun is active widen the subtropical high pressure cells and allow more energy into the oceans to skew Enso in favour of El Nino over and above the basic 60 year periodicity so as to get the observed millennial climate cycling.and the temperature stepping from one PDO positive or negative phase to the next.

The period between peaks in the Isolates curve is about 22 years, corresponding with the Hale cycle, and showing zero indication of a 30 - or 60 - year periodicity.

All that is required is to take, as a working hypothesis the fairly small and reasonable step of accepting that the recent peak was also a peak in the 1000 year cycle This periodicity seen in seen in the temperature proxy and ice core data data in Figs 3 and 4 in the last post at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com This post also contains a forecast of the timing and extent of the coming cooling.

As opposed to the longer period cycles of synod conjunction of the outer planets, which jointly swings the sun and the inner planetary system, around the SSB which beats the two long period set together, the inner planets at a rate of once every 17.95 Years and the outer planets periodicity of ~ 179.5 yYears and the outer planets periodicity of ~ 179.5 yearsyears.

60 years is very close to 3X the Saturn Jupiter lap beat of 19.859 = 59.577 Tallblokes 974 periodicity is in the ball park with 3X the USJ lap beat at 317.74 = 953.22 Chuck in a bit for other planetary influences and various lags between these drivers and earth's climate and these correlations seem likely to be meaningful.

In my»em barrassingly crude» model the amplitude of a hypothetical cycle is only + / -0.117 degrees and has a periodicity of around 60 years.

Simply because it got Hale cycle periodicity wrong, assuming it is constant 22 years, it ain't, it is continuously variable (changes with periods of actual cycles, since 1900, the HC periods were: 21.67, 20.75, 20.66, 21.42, 22.58), hence it doesn't have fixed harmonics.

These were initially thought to have a periodicity of about 1500 years, but better dating showed intermittancy.

The results also show that the century - type cycle of Gleissberg has a wide frequency band with a double structure consisting of 50 — 80 years and 90 — 140 year periodicities.

And that is not going to happen any time soon even if you take the totally unjustified and unscientific step of fitting a linear «trend» to 35 years of data taken from a system with a sizeable 60y periodicity and project it 85 years into the future.

the totally unjustified and unscientific step of fitting a linear «trend» to 35 years of data taken from a system with a sizeable 60y periodicity and project it 85 years into the future.

The AMO during the Little Ice Age was characterized by a quasi-periodicity of about 20 years, while the during the Medieval Warm Period the AMO oscillated with a period of about 45 to 65 years... The observed intermittency of these modes over the last 4000 years supports the view that these are internal ocean - atmosphere modes, with little or no external forcing... However, the geographic variability of these periodicities indicated by ice core data is not captured in model simulations.»

However, during the preceding MWP the 20 year cycle was replaced by a longer scale cycle centered near a period of 43 years with a further 11.5 year periodicity.

The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60 - year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large - scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA / GCR effects.

[12][13] Periodicities of ~ 2500, ~ 1500, and ~ 1000 years are generally observed in the North Atlantic.

Hi Steven I wouldn't discard the solar, not as yet (see vukcevic page 6) than take a look at http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/22423/1/97-0910.pdf page 9: The total CAM (core angular momentum) results from the summation of the individual cylinders with a maximum at a 15 - year lead with respect to LOD...... (note the -65-year periodicity).

It shows ENSO periodicity — and an intriguing change in tempo at the turn of the 20th century — as well as the familiar 20 to 30 year patterns of rainfall.

There were signals of 56 - year regimes, «a quasi-quadriennial (4.2 - year) and a quasi-biennial (2.2 - year) mode, as well as additional periodicities of 64, 19, 12, and, most strikingly, 7 years.

Based on this multidecadal periodicity of LOD, and the fact that LOD runs ahead of dT by 6 years, a gradually descending dT may be expected around 2005.

A dominant AMO periodicity near 20 years is clearly observed in the southern (Dye3 site) and the central (GISP2, Crete and Milcent) regions of Greenland.

The cosmogenic radionuclides confirm the existence of these and other longer periodicities (e.g., 208 year DeVries or Suess cycle, 2300 year Hallstatt cycle, and others) and also the present relatively high level of solar activity, although there is some controversy as to how unusually high it really is [Muscheler et al., 2007; Usoskin et al., 2004; Steinhilber et al., 2008].

In general, the long - term dynamics of both dT and - LOD have roughly a 60 year periodicity.

A period of very weak signal strength (with a near 5 - year periodicity) occurs in much of the intervening epoch.

also found a unique 1.68 - year periodicity in surface radiation for two different UK sites between 1978 and 1990, potentially indicative of a cosmic ray effect.

This was proposed by Schulz (2002)[8] to be a regular periodicity of 1470 years.

For a complete discussion of this and an updated forecast of the possible coming cooling based on the natural 1000 year and 60 year periodicities in the temperature data see http://climatesense.norpag.blogspot.com As to climate sensitivity we have no good ideas of what it is -.

In light of the near periodicity in the temperature fluctuations of the previous 10,000 years that would represent an abrupt change in the natural background variation, so it seems unlikely.

How about this one: earth's core is molten iron - magnetic north can move around and invert according to the fossil record - the earths magnetism gives us the magnetosphere in the same way the sun's magnetism gives us the heliosphere - if the sun's electromagnet had a 11 year periodicity - some kind of resonance - then its magnetic strength could wax and wane - even better - it could be connected to Jupiter's magnetic field properties.

«Recently, Abreu et al. (2012, hereafter A2012) made a new attempt in this direction by comparing periodicities detected in the records of cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C (or quantities derived from them) as proxies for solar activity in the past 9400 years with those of the torque exerted on a thin shell of an ellipsoidally deformed Sun.»

RIchard Holle has posted previously with research showing planetary gravitational effects on the sun causing a small wobble in solar centre of gravity with a 4 year periodicity, and a possible ENSO link.