Sentences with phrase «year running means»

All quantities are 10 - year running means.

Solid lines show Northern Hemisphere temperature in the models (31 - year running means), the dotted lines show simulated proxy reconstructions where the proxies are degraded with 75 % noise.

This fact is also consistent with AGW, and not with the ocean as a driver, but the trends are so easy to see when you remove the sub-decadal noise as with these plots of 10 - year running means.

Total seasonal precipitation and mean seasonal temperature averaged over Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona (17); five - year running means, 1900 — 2008.

It's why we know the red line is a representation of the climate as 30 - year running means, the green line to about 95 % reliable as a predictor of the part of the climate trend past the endpoint, and the blue and purple lines are completely meaningless with regard to climate trends.

HadCRUT3, GISS, etc. data sets report annual global temperature (i.e. climate data obtained over each of a series of years: one year climate data) but often add 5 or 10 year running means to graphical presentations of their data.

To be able to rely on endpoints and 5 - year running means to represent 30 + year trends, while applying wildly exaggerated and patently speculative accusations against a mathematically indistinguishable case.

However, the National Assessment Synthesis Team, co-chaired by Thomas Karl, Director of the National Climatic Data Center, took the result so seriously that they commissioned an independent replication of this test, only more inclusive, using 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year and 25 - year running means of the U.S. annual temperature.

July - September Sahel precipitation for each five years (five - year running means), as a proportion of the 1901 - 2000 observed mean.

With the next El Nino, watch for the graphs, and particularly the 5 year running means and three year running means, and warmest year since....

Their outputs are always smoothed, similar to 10 - 20 year running means.

Now draw your annual and 5 year running means, and tell us when the «pause» began.

Solid black lines represent the 31 - year running means.

From that I was able to determine the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic components between certain dates and 2009 using five year running means:

The cooling you speak of can be seen between 2000 and 2005 (a 12 - year running mean can only get you to within 12/2 = 6 years of the present, 2011).

That is what you would get from Roy's combination of the PDO and SO indices, using his scaling factor, if you don't hide the amplitude by taking a five - year running mean.

And you could argue that the fact it isn't monotonic can be ignored because by using a 30 year running mean, the underlying trend becomes evident.

There is an upward trend starting since the late 1800s, and to see it, see graph of the 30 year running mean here

And if we use a 30 year running mean since the late 1800s we have the data giving us a nonmonotonic function with an underlying upward trend.

Here, a 30 year running mean does a better job than a 5 year running mean to show trends, which is why I showed you a graph of global warming under a 30 year running mean.

According to the annual mean, this trend levels off from 1998 on — according to the 5 year running mean, the leveling commences around 2002.

There is a 22 - year signal in Cosmic rays, which is a result of the cycle of the magnetic field (you can see it e.g. in the 11 - year running mean curve of the Climax CRF).

Also, in 2005 we still used a 10 year running mean and now use a 5 year running mean to create the cone, hence the much narrower cone.

Figure 4 — HadCET data since 1680 reported as a 10 year running mean (dotted line) and as a 50 year running mean (solid line)

Curry at her blog: «However, please understand that my statement to Rose was about the plot with the 10 year running mean ending in 2006 being misleading.

The whole picture becomes very clear if you smooth out the short term cycles with a 15 year running mean.

The 5 year running mean since 1950, natural influence: less than 0.1 C. Human influence: 0.6 C.

If you mean to use the unqualified phrase «natural variability» to refer to short - term inter-annual variability — something that a 5 year running mean almost completely obliterates — then you can't credit * this * variability as a natural contribution to the recent inter-decadal warming trend.

The 65 - year running mean of a 65 - year - period sine wave is exactly zero.

He evidently is not too literate in global warming theory either because he tries to explain the current non-warming period by saying that the ``... current stand - still of the 5 - year running mean global temperature may be largely a consequence of the fact that the first half of the past 10 years had predominantly El Nino conditions, and the second half had predominantly La Nina conditions.»

Hansen's «standstill» in the five year running mean has lasted maybe half that.

Jim D: «If you really want to see a spiral you can do a 10 - year running mean for each month that would join these circles into one line.»

Using the same methodology one can compute how much hotter 2100 will be than 1979 (smoothed to a 10 or 20 year running mean) according to Figure SPM.7 (a), or any other year you wish.

At April 20, 2013 at 9:11 am you provide a graph showing a 9 - year running mean of the data with a linear trend through it and no significance limits; i.e.

By weighted averages, if every year the global temperature is in the range and with the distribution of the global temperatures of the last ten years, then the cumulative 30 - year running mean by 2024 will continue to accelerate upward in trend, as cooler years drop out of the mean replaced by warmer years.

Statistically speaking, that means that both models perform worse for the last 100 years than a table of random numbers applied to ten - year running mean U.S. temperatures.

Figure 2: Observed GISS 21 - year running mean global mean surface temperature (heavy solid) along with that temperature cleaned of the internal signal (dashed).

Correlation (color) and regression maps (contour) of SST (left) and SLP (right) associated with the first EOF modes of annual precipitation (a, b), low - frequency precipitation (c, d), and total water storage (e, f), which are calculated using annual mean data for the first EOF mode of annual precipitation, 10 - year running mean for precipitation, and 10 - year running mean leading with 5 - year for total water storage.

Correlation coefficients are calculated using annual mean data for the first EOF mode of annual precipitation, 10 - year running mean data for the low - frequency precipitation, and 10 - year running mean data leading with 5 - year for the total water storage.

Figure 5 — HadCRUT3 using 10 year running mean for period 1975 - 2009.

Found the reason for the different shape of the sunspot data in Mauas» paper; tallbloke has left out an important sentence: «The data were smoothed with an 11 - year running mean, detrended by substracting the long term component.

I would ask if the pause is climatically significant, so for that we look at the 30 - year running mean.

It's the 11 year running mean that changes the shapes!

The time series have been lightly smoothed with 5 - year running mean.

When asked specifically about the graph that apparently uses a 10 year running mean and ends in 2006, we discussed «hide the decline,» but I honestly can't recall if Rose or I said it first.

O. 8 c is the rise since 1880 using the 1950 to 1980 mean and the 5 year running mean, I, e on a like for like basis to Dr hansens graph.

Figure 3.2: b) Observation - based estimates of annual five - year running mean global mean mid-depth (700 — 2000 m) ocean heat content in ZJ (Levitus et al., 2012) and the deep (2000 — 6000 m) global ocean heat content trend from 1992 — 2005 (Purkey and Johnson, 2010), both with one standard error uncertainties shaded (see legend).

Despite the legend indicating annual averages the Domingues curve actually uses a 3 - year running mean, hence the smoother trend.

Re the GISTEMP Land - Ocean Index graph: I should think that an 8 - year RUNNING MEAN would give an astonishingly - good fit to the data; one that will be statistically - sound as a regression.

The top right panel shows the OHC perturbation for 0 — 275, > 275, and > 700 m depth in 1022 J where the 20 years running mean has been removed