An alternative model that 105 to 106
year scale variations in continental water storage significantly changes the land — ocean water mass balance, led to the hypothesis of «groundwater - driven eustasy», termed «aquifer eustasy» 3,27,28,29,30,31 or «limno - eustasy» 32,33.
Not exact matches
Using different calibration and filtering processes, the two researchers succeeded in combining a wide variety of available data from temperature measurements and climate archives in such a way that they were able to compare the reconstructed sea surface temperature
variations at different locations around the globe on different time
scales over a period of 7,000
years.
While the atmosphere is mainly causing climate
variations on shorter time
scales, from months to
years, the longer - term fluctuations, such as those on decadal time
scales, are primarily determined by the ocean.
There are three main time
scales to consider when it comes to warming: annual temperature
variation from factors like warming in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño
years, decadal temperature swings and long - term temperature increases from global warming.
«What this tells us is over a relatively short time on an evolutionary time
scale, on the order of five million
years, you get tremendous
variation in the DNA of two similar organisms,» Perna notes.
For example, El Niño and La Niña described above characterize
year - to -
year variations of climate whereas the intra-seasonal time
scale, discussed in our review article, bridges weather and climate, i.e. 20 to 100 days.
What makes the effort particularly tricky is that the prediction of natural
variations like El Niño are typically only accurate on the
scale of a few months, so looking out several
years presents a serious challenge.
The records document that the Laschamp Excursion was characterized locally by (1) declination changes of ± 120 °, (2) inclination changes of more than 140 °, (3) ~ 1200 -
year oscillations in both inclination and declination, (4) near 90 ° out - of - phase relationships between inclinations and declinations that produced two clockwise loops in directions and virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) followed by a counterclockwise loop, (5) excursional VGPs during both intervals of clockwise looping, (6) magnetic field intensities less than 10 % of normal that persisted for almost 2000
years, (7) marked similarity in excursional directions over ~ 5000 km spatial
scale length, and (8) secular
variation rates comparable to historic field behavior but persisting in sign for hundreds of
years.
In particular, she uses mathematical approaches to interpret observed
variations in δ18O and δ13C on times
scales of thousands to millions of
years.
Although we were only tracking main
scale secondary vacancies this
year, there were some obvious regional
variations.
At a larger
scale, this method would more accurately assess the seasonal
variation in predation rates, individual hunting behavior throughout the
year and the actual impact of cat predation on prey populations (Tschanz et al., 2011).
The usual formula for a retrospective runs as follows: a range of interesting yet disappointing early sketches; a selection of lacklustre
variations on a single theme; several
years» worth of accomplished, large -
scale works and a series of late studies illustrating a longing for an unexplored theme.
Chiostro del Bramante celebrates its 20 -
year anniversary with a large -
scale exhibition (29 September 2016 - 19 Feb 2017) of works that explore the myriad facets and infinite
variations of the...
Chiostro del Bramante celebrates its 20 -
year anniversary with a large -
scale exhibition (29 September 2016 - 19 Feb 2017) of works that explore the myriad facets and infinite
variations of the universally recognised, and yet indefinable, phenomenon of love.
While many of the works in the exhibition engage with a looser, more experimental approach to form, color, and composition, others relate more directly to fully - realized works, such as his proposals for compositions for To The People of New York, a large -
scale installation of paintings comprised of forty metal panels grouped in
variations of red, yellow, and black, which occupied most of his artistic focus during the last
year of his life.
[Response: From the Supporting Online Information: The 14 proxy series were each smoothed to remove
variations on time
scales shorter than 20
years by the application of a Gaussian - weighted filter that reduces the amplitude of 20 -
year cycles by 50 % and shorter cycles by more than this.
Climate change involves time
scales of many
years, and hence if emphasis is given to much shorter time
scales, the trends will drown in noisy
variations.
The series are shown from 800 to 1995 and have been filtered to remove
variations on time
scales less than 20
years.
I have a query in to Ben Santer, the leader of last
year's Livermore analysis of the difference between trend and
variation on short time
scales, and will add his thoughts when they come in.
In my opinion, this is a question of the time
scale considered: the
variations from
year to
year are obviously dominated by weather, and also decadal
variations — such as the warming (probably the increase of the flow) from 1990 to the middle of the 2000s and the subsequent cooling (slowdown of the flow)-- are likely to be mainly natural
variations.
Another property is that it generally stays in a bounded volume of the phase space (called attractor) what explains why through billions of
years despite the large
variations of all parameters on all time
scales (from hours to million of
years), the system always stayed in a quasi stable state.
The chart I linked to shows how the disingenuous CAGW Alarmists use a MICROSCOPE to plot the FRACTION OF A DEGREE vertical
scale vs.
YEARS or even HUNDREDS of years to give an extremely SKEWED scaling to IMPLY a HUGE variation in temperature anomalies over time where there is NOT
YEARS or even HUNDREDS of
years to give an extremely SKEWED scaling to IMPLY a HUGE variation in temperature anomalies over time where there is NOT
years to give an extremely SKEWED
scaling to IMPLY a HUGE
variation in temperature anomalies over time where there is NOT one.
If we
scale sunspot numbers so that the
variations from solar minimum to maximum represent about a 0.1 deg change in temperature, and if we lag the sunspot data 6
years, it compares well visually with the adjusted GISS LOTI data.
There may be significant
year - to -
year variations, but they must even up to a large degree, and there may be large changes over thousands of
years, but on the
scale of decades no known process can have produced changes comparable to what we have observed at Mauna Loa.
The U.S. military seems interested in climate
variations / change on timescales from seasonal to
scales out to about 30
years, a period over which natural climate variability could very well swamp anthropogenically forced climate change.
captd, no, VP had a residual natural
variation of about 0.1 C with about a 60
year time
scale, and he only got a millikelvin left after removing that small
variation.
The National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has embraced the Milankovitch Cycle model... orbital
variations remain the most thoroughly examined mechanism of climatic change on time
scales of tens of thousands of
years and are by far the clearest c...
JimD, «captd, no, VP had a residual natural
variation of about 0.1 C with about a 60
year time
scale, and he only got a millikelvin left after removing that small
variation.»
«Our analysis shows warming underway by 1800, large
variations up and down throughout the 19th century, and that variability on the 3 - 15
year scale has been dramatically decreasing over the past two centuries.»
So on a shorter time
scale of say, 5,000
years, the natural
variations of going into and out of ice ages DO N'T average out.
I would not dispute 100 - 300
year oscillations as a possibility, but my reading of the climate records reveals no evidence for a significant role for such oscillations — or at least, no role substantial enough on a global
scale to have created a discernible signal outside of changes occasioned by solar
variations, volcanism, and other known entities (changes on a regional
scale are a very different matter and may have involved such oscillations).
On meaningful time
scales (i.e. 15
years and above) the bulk properties of climate average out, which means that any internally driven
variation of bulk properties is pretty small
scale and transient.
We will analyze synoptic -
scale weather patterns from global reanalysis models over the past 50
years, utilizing a variety of techniques including self - organizing maps, such that these weather patterns can be tied to
variations in core proxies, as well as relate this to ten
years (2003 - 2013) of records from about a dozen automated weather stations located on and near McCall Glacier.
southern oscillation a large -
scale atmospheric and hydrospheric fluctuation centered in the equatorial Pacific Ocean; exhibits a nearly annual pressure anomaly, alternatively high over the Indian Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33
years; the
variation in pressure is accompanied by
variations in wind strengths, ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding areas
These natural
variations exist on time
scales of several
years to decades.
Most importantly the
scaling: While the shape of the curve looks a lot like the temperature trend over the last 400
years, note that the entire
variation from the low to the high point is only about 0.25 % — the
scaling makes it look more dramatic.
Another point is that there is no notable climate
variations on the 60 Million
year time
scales (as opposed to the various claimed
variations on half the period, at around 30 million
years, including extinctions, etc.).
However, on a time
scale of a few
years to a few decades ahead, future regional changes in weather patterns and climate, and the corresponding impacts, will also be strongly influenced by natural unforced climate
variations.
I am talking about millenial
scale variation in the sun, presently unknown, and you are talking about eleven
year cycles.
However,
year - to -
year variations impact the natural sink's time
scale, which is why there is a correlation between the sink and temperature,
Detailed investigation of DTR - CR flux relationships from an expanded station - based dataset, and reanalysis data found no significant associations between either the DTR and periodic (11 -
year and 1.68 -
year) solar
variations, or FD events at global or regional
scales (Laken et al. 2012c).
On time
scales of thousands to hundreds of thousands of
years,
variations in the earth's orbit affect climate.
There are no direct measurements of solar radiation on climatological time
scales, but a variety of circumstantial evidence suggests that longer - term
variations do occur, perhaps with larger amplitudes than those found in the two most recent eleven -
year Schwabe cycles.
Also, that after ~ 10 thousand
years, ice core CO2 will no longer show perhaps even century -
scale variations, but can t best only represent a long - term mean atmospheric concentration.
The fact is that having been at the top of the historical
scale TSI must have been above the point of balance however narrow the band of
variation in TSI actually turns out to have been during that period of 400
years since the depths of the Little Ice Age.
The spatial distribution of the altimeter sea level trends during 1993 - 2017 shows large -
scale variations, with some regions such as the western tropical Pacific Ocean experiencing up to +8 mm /
year.
E.g., «The IPCC has taken for granted that there are no natural
variations in global average temperatures once one gets beyond a time
scale of ten
years or so» (p. 16).
The IPCC has taken for granted that there are no natural
variations in global average temperatures once one gets beyond a time
scale of ten
years or so.
There has not been shown to be a density
variation of significance that correlates with average temperature
variation (e.g, the recent high average temperature came from a small very hot area over the ocean and a small northern area, and more normal to even colder temperatures everywhere else, not global temperatures being warmer), and Solar activity has been shown to correlate very well with much of the long term (thousands of
years time
scale) global temperature trend.
The records document that the Laschamp Excursion was characterized locally by (1) declination changes of ± 120 °, (2) inclination changes of more than 140 °, (3) ~ 1200 -
year oscillations in both inclination and declination, (4) near 90 ° out - of - phase relationships between inclinations and declinations that produced two clockwise loops in directions and virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) followed by a counterclockwise loop, (5) excursional VGPs during both intervals of clockwise looping, (6) magnetic field intensities less than 10 % of normal that persisted for almost 2000
years, (7) marked similarity in excursional directions over ~ 5000 km spatial
scale length, and (8) secular
variation rates comparable to historic field behavior but persisting in sign for hundreds of
years.