It looks like the authors have calculated two standard deviations from the 10 -
year SMOOTHED curve to assess the range of natural variability.
manacker, the 60 -
year smoothed curve is robust over the last century or so, and, I would suggest, a good predictor of what future smoothed temperatures would look like if extrapolated.
Not exact matches
At the Victoria and Albert Museum's elegant Lydia and Manfred Gorvy Lecture Theatre, surrounded appropriately enough by
smooth stone
curves of sculptural forms, West delivered a series of lectures on this theology of the body as part of HTB's Leadership Conference this
year.
In cases where state enrollment fluctuated dramatically (indicating a likely reporting error) we
smoothed the
curve by imputing a value for the state based on the previous and prior
years» values.
Sharp lines accentuate the
smooth curves to give this
year's model a more modern and aggressive appearance.
Henning realized he needed a way to «
smooth» the rate - of - ascent
curve and give priorities to those stocks that continued to experience strong price gains throughout the
year.
If we had 200
years of daily climate records for the north pole, like we have for the mid latitudes, then the
curve would be
smoother, and a warmest week could be picked out, if it does not simply plateau.
The actual sea level
curves have been
smoothed with an SSAtrend filter which has a full width of 30
years, but since the weights of the filter decline away from the central point I cited the half - width — this is like citing an effective width for a Gaussian weighting
curve.
To calculate the rate of increase, sea level
curves were first
smoothed with a filter of half - width 15
years and then differentiated.
The moving 10
year trends differ by 2 °C / century at the start, goes to 10 and then down -2 °C / century but its a
smooth curve with noise of 0.2 ° / century (spread due to different starting months).
Planetary warming isn't a
smooth upward
curve every
year.
Your
curve of correlation of 60 -
year averaged temperatures with a
curve of observed CO2 concentrations that really only begins after 1959 shows a nice correlation after enough
smoothing, but is no empirical evidence of anything (as I am sure you recognize).
If you look at things about 11,000
years ago, you see that temperatures were rising, then appeared to «ring» a little with temps dropping then rising, then temps drop again but not as far and recover to a higher level and then the «ringing» damps out and we have a nice
smooth curve until about 4000
years ago and it begins to «ring» again.
Variability is extremely important because the ice core record shows an exceptionally
smooth curve achieved by applying a 70 -
year smoothing average.
Yes, Figures 3, 7, and 12 are then comparing those «differential (derivative)»
curves to NINO3.4 SST anomalies
smoothed with a 31 -
year filter.
The
curve of the «Running Change (31 -
Year) In Global SST Anomalies» is very similar to the curve of annual NINO3.4 SST anomalies that have been smoothed with a 31 - year fil
Year) In Global SST Anomalies» is very similar to the
curve of annual NINO3.4 SST anomalies that have been
smoothed with a 31 -
year fil
year filter.
Smooth by 30 -
year mean to eliminate noise in the original, and perform the same
smoothing so all
curves may be compared as like - to - like.
This
curve is
smoothed by a 70 -
year moving average, which eliminates variability.
The ice core record is shown as a
smooth curve achieved by eliminating extreme readings and applying a 70
year smoothing average.
Curves are
smoothed with a singular spectrum filter (ssatrend; Moore et al. 2005) of 10
years half - width.
Figure 1: Reconstructed tropical South American temperature anomalies (normalized to the 1961 — 1990AD average) for the last 1600
years (red
curve,
smoothed with a 39 ‐
year Gaussian filter).
This is achieved empirically by aligning and averaging measured ring widths from all available samples by relative age (assuming in this case that the first sample ring represented the first
year of the tree's lifespan, and making no allowance for assumed difference from the true germination
year) and using an age - related
smoothing of these data (Melvin et al 2007) to provide a practical reference
curve.
E.g., in the Yamal set, the 415
year tree is the sole contributor for the last 29
years of the growth
curve with a high variability while the early portion gets pretty
smooth.
Atmosphere, with all its ENSO and decadal noise makes that
smooth curve impossible, especially with the strongest El Nino / La Nina couplet in over 100
years.
Also, RGB at Duke would scold R.Gates for making the «schtick» «First, the climate now is not warmer than it was in the Holocene Optimum (do not make the mistake of conflating the high frequency, high resolution «2004 ″ data point with the
smoothed low frequency, low resolution data in the
curve — even the figure's caption warns against doing that — for the very good reason that in every 300
year smoothed upswing it is statistically certain that the upswing involved multidecadal intervals of temperatures much higher than the running mean.
Comparison of MBH98 reconstruction (blue) from AD 1400 - 1980 (thick black
curve is 40
year smoothed version) with a reconstruction over AD 1400 - 1600 (yellow) based on the «censored» network described in the text, arising from the censoring of the entire North American ITRDB data set and the «St. Anne» Northern Treeline series from the predictor network prior to AD 1600.
It is growing fast, and has been for
years, but forget about a
smooth upward
curve: Up close, the trajectory looks like the Alps.
Despite the legend indicating annual averages the Domingues
curve actually uses a 3 -
year running mean, hence the
smoother trend.
The Keeling
curve (grossly
smoothed) has a peak approx 15 May and a minima approx 28 September in the last
year.
To remove this oscillation, you need to
smooth the Annual GMST
curve with longer period of about 60
years.
Because 1998 is lower than all the other sources, and 2005 onwards are higher, Bart's 11 -
year smoothing, shows a steeper and straighter
curve.
Apple appears to have done away with the
smooth curves we've come to expect from its smartphones in recent
years, opting instead for sharper edges and flat sides.
My forehead is pretty
smooth for a 49 -
year - old... well... aside from a stress ridge between my eyebrows and a little
curved one above my right eye.