Sentences with phrase «year smoothed decadal»

Adding the relevant years» total uncertainty estimates for the HadCRUT4 21 - year smoothed decadal data (estimated 5 — 95 % ranges 0.17 °C and 0.126 °C), and very generously assuming the variance uncertainty scales inversely with the number of years averaged, gives an error standard deviation for the change in decadal temperature of 0.08 °C (all uncertainty errors are assumed to be normally distributed, and independent except where otherwise stated).

Not exact matches

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

It shows the Hockey stick paleo reconstructions - smoothed 50 year records - and decadal CET instrumental (and reconstruction) The blue lines closed at the top represent glacial retreats and closed at the bottom glacial advances.

Now let's add the last two years, extending the same decadal smooth through 2016.

Firstly, they increase the number of degrees of freedom by moving from 30 - year smoothing to decadal tests.

A year ago we showed that the same decadal smooth up to 2014 did show a moderate short - term slowdown in the 2000s in all series.

Atmosphere, with all its ENSO and decadal noise makes that smooth curve impossible, especially with the strongest El Nino / La Nina couplet in over 100 years.

For the record, in the case of this «divergence», after dropping that post 1960 portion, the comparison between the reconstruction and the temperature record was done using decadal «smoothing» (basically weighted moving averages) of both series correlated on an annual basis for the 80 year period 1880 to 1960 so that the reported correlation was extremely exaggerated and not interpretable as a simple correlation might be.