Not exact matches
It shows the Hockey stick paleo
reconstructions -
smoothed 50
year records - and decadal CET instrumental (and
reconstruction) The blue lines closed at the top represent glacial retreats and closed at the bottom glacial advances.
The TRW and MXD temperature
reconstructions of (a) and (b) are compared in (c) after they were normalised over the common period 600 to 2008 and
smoothed with a 10
year spline.
For the record, in the case of this «divergence», after dropping that post 1960 portion, the comparison between the
reconstruction and the temperature record was done using decadal «
smoothing» (basically weighted moving averages) of both series correlated on an annual basis for the 80
year period 1880 to 1960 so that the reported correlation was extremely exaggerated and not interpretable as a simple correlation might be.
The
reconstruction and observational record were
smoothed with a 40 -
year lowpass filter to highlight the best - resolved frequencies (Fig. 2b).
Using 73
reconstructions with an average resolution of ~ 120
years with additional
smoothing provides around a 200
year smoothed «shaft».
Since the
reconstruction is in degrees C, I «spliced» the instrumental data in degrees C with the same 50
year smooth and annual.
The Marcott
reconstruction is
smooth so much that «excursions» less than 120
years don't exist.
The
smoothing of the samples averages 50
years and the authors «binned» the
reconstruction into decades.
So even though the
smoothing is over 120
years for the
reconstruction Marcott and gang compare two decade averages.
Comparison of MBH98
reconstruction (blue) from AD 1400 - 1980 (thick black curve is 40
year smoothed version) with a
reconstruction over AD 1400 - 1600 (yellow) based on the «censored» network described in the text, arising from the censoring of the entire North American ITRDB data set and the «St. Anne» Northern Treeline series from the predictor network prior to AD 1600.
For comparison, we show the Mann et al. 40 -
year -
smoothed reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere temperature (black) with its 95 % confidence interval (grey), as shown in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Fig. 2.21).
The three
reconstructions were equally
smoothed with a 100 -
year spline filter and have ad 1951 — 1970 as a common base period