I was wondering what would the graph look like if one were to use the highest resolution available prior to 1880, then a 120
year smoothed resolution for the 20th century temps?
Not exact matches
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The linear trend line is now at +1.06 °C, which is perhaps the best temperature to compare to paleoclimate temperatures, because the latter are «centennially -
smoothed,» i.e., the proxy measures of ancient temperature typically have a
resolution not better than 100
years.
I'm familiar enough to have dismissed the last 120
years of the infographic in question as entirely unreliable without further development or
resolution of apparent discrepancies, and to understand you can tell nothing about the frequency of sub-century spikes directly from millennialy
smoothed ensemble averages.
But even if the
resolution was 30
years, if the data was
smoothed over 5 points, you would not see any sharp features.
I observed four significant peaks in the PSD of the SSN process at 10
years, 11.8
years, 10.8
years, and 131
years (unfortunately, the one at 131
years is obscured in the PSD I showed because I had to make the usual tradeoff between bias (
resolution) and variance in my plot, and I chose to present a
smoother version, the better to resolve the higher frequency peaks).
Using 73 reconstructions with an average
resolution of ~ 120
years with additional
smoothing provides around a 200
year smoothed «shaft».
Also, RGB at Duke would scold R.Gates for making the «schtick» «First, the climate now is not warmer than it was in the Holocene Optimum (do not make the mistake of conflating the high frequency, high
resolution «2004 ″ data point with the
smoothed low frequency, low
resolution data in the curve — even the figure's caption warns against doing that — for the very good reason that in every 300
year smoothed upswing it is statistically certain that the upswing involved multidecadal intervals of temperatures much higher than the running mean.
«We can not say whether this change is unique across the entire Holocene because of the
resolution (i.e., the sampling of temperature per unit time) of the entire dataset is about 120
years, and the nature of the Monte Carlo simulations
smooth everything out to less than about 300
years.
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