The fascinating thing that seems to be emerging is, as we look at... the 1,000 -
year timescales going back to 183 million years, other past warming events where we get these black mudstones, we find that whatever the starting conditions, amazingly you get the same outcome.
Not exact matches
«When we're talking about cuts of this scale, over this short a
timescale, we're inevitably
going to be talking about job losses, which will mean rising unemployment, increased benefit payments, reduced tax revenue and a real risk of a double - dip recession,» she said The government expects to save up to # 120m this
year by freezing recruitment across the board in government departments, agencies, and quangos.
Researchers at the Sainte - Justine University Hospital Center and University of Montreal have discovered that the genomic signature inherited by today's 6 million French Canadians from the first 8,500 French settlers who colonized New France some 400
years ago has
gone through an unparalleled change in human history, in a remarkably short
timescale.
It gets tricky now because the equilibrium climate sensitivity requires a
timescale to be defined — barring large hysteresis, it isn't so large
going out many millions of
years (weathering feedback); there will be a time scale of maximum sensitivity.
In another 20
years, they will be
gone, and they won't come back on any sort of meaningful human
timescale.
However, on
timescales below 17
years, we have to admit natural variability is
going to make climate trend detection too uncertain to be worth discussing, until we get past the 17th
year, and preferably 30
years or more.
«on
timescales below 17
years, we have to admit natural variability is
going to make climate trend detection too uncertain to be worth discussing, until we get past the 17th
year, and preferably 30
years or more.»
Importantly the sediment core
goes back 80,000
years further than any other core retrieved from the Greenland ice sheet, providing researchers with the longest
timescale yet of changes in the Arctic climate.
As far as crops
go, the problem is this: Changes to the hydrological cycle as a result of global warming may be neutral on a 100 -
year timescale, as far as crop yields are concerned.
Well, one thing that appears to be the case is that, for something like the PETM, you need an initial burst of 2,000 gigatons or something, in a
timescale of less than 5,000
years, and then you need a long tail that
goes out tens of thousands of
years.
But since movement of the continents occurs on time scales of millions of
years, they aren't
going to impact on climate change on human
timescales.
Probability-wise shifting the mean back O. 3 C or so, to match the situation in the Midwest, you might
go from 4.5 sigma to 4.6 sigma making the extreme 1.6 times less likely for a 100
year timescale climate estimate than for a 30
year timescale climate estimate.
[Response: Trenberth is interested in being able to say precisely where the energy flows are
going on relatively short
timescales — this is hard because the accuracy in the
year to
year numbers is not very good and so there is a lot of wiggle room.