I recently examined the last decade of returns for five funds that track the DEX Universe Bond Index, and in
some years the tracking errors differed by more than 2 %.
Not exact matches
Since its launch in March 2012, the S&P GIVI Japan has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P Japan BMI, by 1.17 % per
year, with a
tracking error of 2.42 %.
But if you take a slightly longer term view and consider the fact that XSP has trailed IVV returns in US dollars every
year for the past five
years, you'll find that XSP's outperformance is significantly eroded by the
tracking error even with a significant appreciation in the Canadian dollar.
The ETF's
tracking error was high in both
years: — 3.2 % in 2008, and — 1.5 % in 2009.
As a result, XCB's
tracking error has averaged — 0.82 % over the last five
years, despite an MER of 0.42 %.
On the ishares.ca site, they have a
tracking error chart for XSP, which shows an annual
error of less than 1 % for the past three
years.
It has positive
tracking errors over 1, 3 and 5
years and since inception!
If the large
tracking errors exhibited over the past 3
years continues, I'm not sure if the costs of hedging would ever be worth it.
If I may ask, how were the
tracking errors for XSP calcualted in the three
years?
So..., if the CS$ might appreciate against the US$ over the next
year or two (as occurred not too long ago), then XSP would do better in proportion to IVV (notwithstanding the MER and
tracking error issues).
EEM had a positive
tracking error of 3.62 % over the one
year period to March 31, 2009; 0.66 % over 5
years and 0.73 % since inception.
For example, the U.S. version of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSE: EEM, recently launched in Canada as ticker XEM) has posted large
tracking errors over the past three
years, lagging its index by 4.8 % in 2007, besting it by 3.3 % in 2008, and trailing again by more than 9 % so far this
year.
Over the last 10
years, the mutual fund's
tracking error has amounted to a mere 0.09 % annually, and since its inception in 1999, the fund has returned 5.15 %, three basis points more than its benchmark index.
It has closely
tracked the underlying index over the last three
years with high correlation and low
tracking error statistics compared to its peers.
From 1968 through 2017, the average rolling three -
year pairwise
tracking error was nearly 3 %.
These performance differences are reflected in surprisingly high levels of three -
year pairwise
tracking errors to each another.
In the most extreme scenario, in the three -
year period ending January 2001, two of the strategies — operating profits to price and dividends - plus - buybacks to price — exhibited a
tracking error of returns to one another of nearly 9 %.
The verdict on currency - hedging then (based on an admittedly short history of just 6
years) is clear: Long - term investors are highly unlikely to profit from hedging their currency exposure because currency effects have to overcome significantly large
tracking errors simply to break even.
I'm thinking (and I want to see more data over time) that if you hold these ETFs for a long time then hopefully the
tracking errors might balance out and you will end up with a return that reflects the index return minus the MER like XIC did over the 6
years it's been around.
This structure typically reduces the cost and
tracking error * associated with replicating an index and increases tax efficiency • Tax efficient: HTH is not expected to make taxable distributions • Hedged exposure: Get Canadian currency - hedged ** exposure to the US 7 - 10
year treasury market • Higher compound growth: The reinvestment of index distributions are reflected in HTH's Net Asset Value («NAV»)
The goal is to beat respective benchmarks by 2 % per
year, while keeping
tracking error to 2 - 4 % at any given time, according to executives at State Street.
To simulate various actively - managed fund
tracking errors over thirty
years, Professor Sharpe ran a million simulations using Monte Carlo analysis techniques drawing from investment return data since the beginning of the 20th century.
With higher risk and higher
tracking error (5 % /
year), Dr. Sharpe's simulation indicated that higher cost actively managed funds could have a somewhat greater chance of beating low cost passive management.
-- the term of investment (in
years)-- annual returns — Currency - hedged fund
tracking error — Currency conversion cost — size of currency appreciation / depreciation over the investment term
There was an interesting article in today's WSJ about a recent report issued by Morgan Stanley on how the
tracking error between exchange - traded funds and their prospective indexes increased last
year:
Last
year, 54 ETFs showed
tracking errors of more than three percentage points, up from just four funds the prior
year.
For example, if the fund returns 9.5 % in a given
year and its underlying index returned 10 %, the
tracking error is 0.5 %.
If you would like your modeling result to be taken seriously as a guide to future planning (I don't mean to presume to know your motives), then keep
track of the squared prediction
error, the sum of the squared prediction
errors (CUSUM), and the square root of the mean prediction
error (RMSE) over the next 20
years.
And we know that when people do eventually succeed in
tracking down the climatologists methods — for example in the Hockey Stick — the work is basically a pile of crap, and patience and persistence that found the
errors years after publication.
Marks said that 48 - hour
track forecast
errors today are the same as 24 - hour
track forecast
errors 10
years ago, whereas there has only been slight improvement in 48 - hour intensity forecasts during the past two decades.
The HFIP aims to cut the average
errors of hurricane
track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five
years and by 50 percent by 2019, within a seven - day forecast period.
Looking back over more than 10
years, fossil free portfolios would have had a
tracking error of less than 1 % (Compared with the average
tracking error of active managers, 5 %)
According to NOAA, the specific goals of the HFIP are to reduce the average
errors of both hurricane
track and intensity forecasts by 20 % within five
years and 50 % in 10
years, with a forecast period out to seven days.
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