This is the equivalent of the PE ratio on the 10 -
year treasury going from 20x during the 2001 - 2007 time period to 33x in 2013 to 67x today.
The first chart shows the yield on the 10
year treasury going all the way back to 1953.
«If the 30 -
year treasury goes above 3.22, its game over for the bond bull market.
These are the risk premiums over 10, 20 and 30 year time frames based on the annual returns for the total U.S. stock market (represented by the CRSP Total Market Index) and 20
Year Treasuries going back to 1926:
If the 10
year treasury went anywhere near 5 % what is the potential loss in value on the BND fund?
Treasuries reacted to the news in the same way, as yields on the 10 -
year Treasury went from 2.86 % to 2.73 %, finally ending the day at 2.68 %.
So, for example, when the rates for 10 -
year Treasuries go down investors will tend to turn to alternative investment vehicles, such as corporate bonds, stocks, and property.
Not exact matches
But in contrarian fashion, DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Gundlach has been arguing that the 10 -
year Treasury yield isn't destined to
go up.
That's exactly what has happened over the last month, as shown in this graph of the yield on the 10
year US
treasury bond for the last
year (keep in mind that yields
going up means prices
going down):
Alain Bokobza of Societe Generale says the big question at the moment is if markets will
go through the 3 percent barrier on the 10 -
year U.S.
Treasury.
Bill Gross predicts the 10 -
year Treasury will
go «very gradually but not significantly higher,» in the next 12 months.
Ten -
year Italian bond yields have risen 17 basis points to 4.55 percent, since the news of an uncertain outcome spread on Monday but the Italian
treasury is
going ahead with a sale of 6.5 billion euros ($ 8.5 billion) of 5 and 10 -
year bonds on Wednesday.
If you are paying each
year the equivalent to more than an annual S&P 500 return or what you can earn risk - free investing in government
Treasuries, how are you ever
going to get ahead?
U.S.
Treasury yields fell as Japan's 10 -
year yields
went negative and German bund yields sank.
The benchmark 10 -
year Treasury yield is on the verge of breaking 3 percent and is likely to
go higher from there, taking interest rates on mortgages and a whole range of business and consumer loans higher with it.
If I know the market is
going down for five
years, my interest would be to pull out now, put my money in cash or
Treasuries, and buy back into stocks five
years from now, or whenever the crisis has passed.
The Federal Government is
going to issue well over $ 1 trillion in new
Treasury debt this
year — debt that not only will never be repaid but will continue to grow exponentially until the system collapses.
The shrinkage amount will grow gradually until October of this
year when the Fed will roll over $ 30 billion less each month in
Treasuries going forward than it had in prior
years.
In fact, if you
go back to the last period of a sustained rising rate environment from the early 1950s to the early 1980s the annual losses in 10
year treasuries were never really that significant:
April 20, 2018 • Concerns about the yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note
going above three percent are overblown.
Nobody is
going to invest $ 2,750,000 in a property that generates $ 55,000 for a 2 % return when they can invest $ 2,750,000 in a 10 -
year Treasury bond for a 2 % return and do nothing.
The yield on the 10 -
year Treasury bond climbed above 3 % for the first time since 2014, but of greater concern to many market participants were remarks in major corporate earnings reports suggesting that business conditions had likely hit their peak and were poised to deteriorate
going forward.
Including interest, this bill will add $ 1.7 trillion to the federal debt over 10
years, and the
Treasury will run a trillion - dollar deficit every
year going forward.
Unfortunately that is the
going rate for a one -
year Treasury security.)
The fact that the 10 -
year is trading closer to 3 percent is probably due to continued large purchases of
Treasury bonds by the Fed, which are
going to taper off.
HYHG tracks an index that
goes long on recently issued, high - yield USD debt from US and Canadian issuers, while shorting a duration - matched combination of 2 -, 5 - and 10 -
year US
Treasurys.
While this only
goes back to 1999, it would still be insightful to compare these two indexes on a
year by
year and aggregate basis for total return and volatility to get a true sense of the difference that
treasury bond duration makes.
The Bill Clinton administration would obligingly repeal the Glass - Steagall Act the
year after the Citigroup merger and Clinton's
Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, would
go on to make over $ 120 million sitting on the Board of the dysfunctional Citigroup over the next decade.
Ten -
year Treasury yields hit a seven - month high during October, but receded somewhat amid uncertainty over who will lead the Federal Reserve
going forward.
We're still calling for the 10 -
year Treasury to
go to 2 % yield or lower.
** 52 - Week T - Bill Yield — You can find the yield by
going to the U.S.
Treasury Direct website, selecting the most recent
year under auction date > 52 - week bills > PDF of the latest auction results.
Treasury will save $ 67 billion over ten
years, $ 36 billion of which will
go to expanding Pell Grants to lower - income students.
In the middle of the
year, private equity offers lobbed at the front doors of struggling wine group
Treasury Wine Estates and compliance and data business SAI Global, and it seemed a sure thing that shareholders were
going to be put out of their misery.
After
years of Australian winemakers either
going bust or being bought out by larger companies, Australian Vintage is one of three remaining ASX - listed winemakers, next to
Treasury Wine Estates and the much smaller Brand New Vintage.
Guy Savoy's moody, multi-room relaunch had just opened on the top floor of a historic
Treasury building, so I
went at lunch (for the sake of stomachs and wallets) and it was the best decision I made all
year.
The chancellor said the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) would have to «
go away and decide what is the best form of cap» after the
Treasury's decision to adopt a strategy minister Mark Hoban had dismissed as unnecessary earlier this
year.
Mr. Hollobone: Council tenants in the borough of Kettering pay # 12 million a
year in council rent, # 3 million of which
goes into the
Treasury coffers and is not reinvested in council housing in Kettering.
In 2001 when a shadow
Treasury minister he had to
go into hiding during that
year's election campaign after claiming the Tories wanted to cut public spending by # 20 billion rather than the # 8 billion they had publicly stated.
He
goes on to suggest the Conservatives might postpone spending cuts planned for this financial
year, and hints that Vince Cable might be awarded a Cabinet position - possibly chief secretary to the
Treasury.
Speaking in an early morning press conference alongside
Treasury spokesman Vince Cable, Mr Clegg said: «If they haven't managed to do it in 13
years, why on earth would anyone believe that they're
going to be able to do it this time?
Meanwhile, Matt Hancock, Osborne's former chief of staff, becomes a minister of state in two departments — BIS and DfE — at just 34
years old, Sajid Javid scaled two
Treasury rungs and leapt from economics secretary to financial secretary, and Amber Rudd, another ex-Osborne PPS, has recently been seen
going into Downing Street and is predicted for promotion.
Treasury figures show that 60 % of tax relief
goes to higher rate taxpayers, with 25 % — nearly # 10bn a
year —
going to the top 1 % of earners.
• The
Treasury is
going to spend # 900m over the next four
years targeting tax evasion and tax avoidance.
The Conservative plans to cut # 6bn from public spending this
year will be subject to advice of the
Treasury and the Bank of England, but are widely expected to
go ahead.
The program is projected to receive more than half a billion dollars this
year that otherwise would have
gone to Florida's
treasury.
Trade: Buy the 10 -
year US
Treasury note when the consensus lowers its estimate of
year - ahead growth and inflation, suggesting interest rates will
go down and bond prices will
go up.
Same
goes for 10 -
year U.S.
treasuries, currently yielding just close to 2.4 per cent after the significant jump in recent months.
The yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note is the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are
going.
The importance of the 10 -
year Treasury bond yield
goes beyond the return on the instrument as it is used as a proxy for many other important financial matters, such as mortgages and investor confidence.
The 7 -
year Treasury yield is 2.17 % and Andrews FCU has a special
going on for a taxable 7 -
year CD at 3 % (I already picked up three of the IRA CDs at this rate), so a yield premium of 83 bps.