If you replace 8 -
year trend lines with n - year, at what value of n do they start to faithfully reflect the underlying trend?
The CO2 rise / year should all the time seek back to the 2 - 3 ppm /
year trend line even BEFORE temperature does anything.
Gross stated today that 25
year trend lines in both 5 and 10 year treasuries have been broken, signaling a bear market.
The reader should note that the last 2 columns (light brown) provide annualized total return estimates based on the consensus 3 to 5
years trend line analyst estimates of either cash flows or earnings.
In other words, are the temperature gradients between closely spaced collection points small enough to make milli - degree /
year trend lines based on data collected from randomly drifting buoys meaningful?
Gross stated today that 25
year trend lines in both 5 and 10 year treasuries have been broken, signaling a bear market.
He said bonds were already in a bear market, noting that 25 -
year trend lines had been breached in both five - and 10 - year Treasury maturities.
«More importantly, it's above its trend line going all the way back to 2007, so you break a 10 -
year trend line and make a nice higher high, that's a very bullish sign.»
This is particularly true because gold has already broken above its six -
year trend line, going all the way back to those 2011 highs.
Williamson also criticizes the somewhat arbitrary decision to use a 15 -
year trend line to make projections.
For what it's worth, the blue 8 -
year trend lines all seem to converge into a positive linear trend between 1995 and 2005, suggesting a consistent increase in temps.
Torsten, why do you think that extrapolation from a 20 -
year trend line is likely to prove reliable over even the next 20 years, much less the next 80?
10
year trend lines, offset 5 years to cover that period.
For what it's worth, the blue 8 -
year trend lines all seem to converge into a positive linear trend between 1995 and 2005, suggesting a consistent increase in temps.
These graphs illustrate that the 8 - year trends in the UK Met Office data are of course just as noisy as in the GISS data; that 7 -
year trend lines are of course even noisier than 8 - year trend lines; and that things start to stabilise (trends getting statistically robust) when 15 - year averaging is used.
The red line is the annual global - mean GISTEMP temperature record (though any other data set would do just as well), while the blue lines are 8 -
year trend lines — one for each 8 - year period of data in the graph.
-- GISS data with 15 - year trend lines
-- UK Met Office data (instead of GISS data) with 8 -
year trend lines — GISS data with 7 - year trend lines (instead of 8 - year).