Is this 20
year trend sufficient to determine whether the model sensitivity was too high?
Is this 20
year trend sufficient to determine whether the model sensitivity was too high?
Not exact matches
Increases have also been reported for rarer precipitation events (1 in 50
year return period), but only a few regions have
sufficient data to assess such
trends reliably.
However, I've found that using a 20
year period is
sufficient to smooth out short term
trends and give us at least some feel for what's going on.
I found I needed either a gazillion data points over a few
years (impossible), or a few data points taken separated by a gazillion days, to have numbers
sufficient for detecting any
trend on a small area, and realized I had a 200
year project going.
Once you read Tamino you know picking 9
years isn't
sufficient to tell anything about a
trend in this particular measure; it's noisy.
Increases have also been reported for rarer precipitation events (1 in 50
year return period), but only a few regions have
sufficient data to assess such
trends reliably (see Figure TS.10).
«None of the [most recent] 10 -
year trends is «statistically significant» but that's only because the uncertainties are so large — 10
years isn't long enough to determine the warming
trend with
sufficient precision.
Rereading the statement above I'm guessing that while 17
years is necessary to identify warming, the absence of such a
trend during that span is not
sufficient to rule warming out.
As well, the statement «Whether we have the 1000
year trend right is far less certain» is in fact an admission of the lack of
sufficient knowledge about the correctness of the application of the reconstruction procedure and really should not be interpreted as a scientific assessment of statistical uncertainty.
When you have data for thousands of
years, that single location is
sufficient for spotting long term
trends.
A single location with data for thousands of
years, which is
sufficient to plot general
trends in earth's temperature as a whole.
There haven't yet been 15
years since 2001, but even hindcasting to include the running 10 - 15
year trend lines between 1990 and today, one doesn't develop
sufficient exceptions to the rising
trend to declare a falling or level
trend overall by that standard.
* «UK rainfall shows large
year to
year variability, making
trends hard to detect» * «While connections can be made between climate change and dry seasons in some parts of the world, there is currently no clear evidence of such a link to recent dry periods in the UK» * «The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of
sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall.»
Their conclusion: «We conclude that there is
sufficient evidence in temperature data in the past 130 - 160
years to reject the hypothesis of no warming
trend in temperatures at the usual levels of signi... ficance.»
Their conclusion: «there is
sufficient evidence in temperature data in the past 130 - 160
years to reject the hypothesis of no warming
trend in temperatures at the usual levels of significance»