Sentences with phrase «year variability increased»

Not exact matches

The final years of work and the first few years of retirement tend to have increased variability of either income, deductions, or both.

Such variability between years is the reason why the number of chicks dying from climate change is not a tidy, ever - increasing figure each year.

I plotted out the variability in million - year intervals and found that about 6 million years ago, that variability went off the charts and kept increasing.

«My view on this is that the research needs to broaden out to have more of a focus on variability more generally so that a) we can predict the next few years better b) we can refine our estimates of the sensitivity of the climate system to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.»

The increase in variability among the later points suggests a decrease in social learning and possibly a reduction in overall interactions among North American populations beginning around 12,500 years ago, the researchers say.

«The challenge is really first understanding what the natural variability looks like in this data - poor region, and then making measurements long enough that we can tease out the long - term ocean acidification trend, which is this gradual increase through time,» he said «It's really hard to see with just one or two years of data.»

has decreased in winter, but no significant change in annual mean precipitation potentially because of very slight increases in spring and fall precipitation; precipitation is projected to increase across Montana, primarily in spring; slight decrease in summer precipitation; variability of precipitation year - to - year projected to increase

As the first mission to provide extensive time series measurements on thousands of stars over months to years at a level hitherto possible only for the Sun, the results from Kepler will vastly increase our knowledge of stellar variability for quiet solar - type stars.

El Niño is one of the biggest drivers of year - to - year variability, increasing the likelihood of warm weather in the Pacific Northwest and cooler weather in the Southeast as well as a host of other global impacts.

By looking at the signatures of climate change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability.

Of course, on a timescale of one decade the noise in the temperature signal from internal variability and measurement uncertainty is quite large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenario.

Increased variability and unpredictability of conditions year to year, likely in a dissipative system being pushed out of its current basin of metastability, could make things very difficult for farmers worldwide.

It is these uppermost few percent of events that are important, and models and theory are nearly unanimous now that they are and will continue to increase, notwithstanding natural climate variability on shorter time scales (as much as 20 years).»

A globally warm medieval period could be a simple forced response to increased solar, in which case it doesn't imply any larger intrinsic variability than already assumed, and since solar has been pretty much constant over the last 50 years, improvements to our understanding of solar forced climate changes are irrelevant for the last few decades.

Now — apparently — if the next 20 years fail to show the expected level of increase — then it's all down to natural variability.

Wili: As ice volume decreases, the fraction of volume which is new ice increases, and hence the year to year variability in new ice becomes a larger fraction of the total ice volume variability, so I don't think the smoothed downward slope will stay as smooth, i.e. you should expect bigger surprises to the upside on a given winter if it is cold and has heavy snow fall.

Averaging smoothes out day - to - day and year - to - year natural weather variability and extremes, removing much of the chaotic behavior, revealing any underlying long term trends in climate, such as a long term increase or decrease in temperature, or long term shifts in precipitation patterns.

-- Without forgetting a significant interannual variability in OHC increase... the average value, 10 - 15 years ago, was close to 8 ZJ per year, that is # 250 TW on average.

-- I calculated potential intensity trends over the period 1980 - 2012 & The disparity between the reanalysis potential intensity trends over the past 30 years and the projected trends over this century suggests either that most of the observed increase in potential intensity (and actual intensity of high category storms) is due to natural variability,....»

Global temperature has in recent years increased more slowly than before, but this is within the normal natural variability that always exists, and also within the range of predictions by climate models — even despite some cool forcing factors such as the deep solar minimum not included in the models.

It would seem that if you wanted to examine this using GCMs and temperature variability, you'd want to run the more realistic scenario of a gradual 1 % increase in CO2 per year followed by adjustment to equilibrium.

If you are of the opinion that temperature variability on a short time scale is insignificant, how can we declare as fact that the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years is incontrovertibly tied to the increase in CO2 levels?

Fig. 6 confirms that there has been little increase of the 60 - month (5 - year) and 132 - month (11 - year) running means in the past decade, although it is not obvious that such a slowdown is outside the norm of unforced decadal variability.

But the evidence shows this can't be true; temperature changes before CO2 in every record of any duration for any time period; CO2 variability does not correlate with temperature at any point in the last 600 million years; atmospheric CO2 levels are currently at the lowest level in that period; in the 20th century most warming occurred before 1940 when human production of CO2 was very small; human production of CO2 increased the most after 1940 but global temperatures declined to 1985; from 2000 global temperatures declined while CO2 levels increased; and any reduction in CO2 threatens plant life, oxygen production, and therefore all life on the planet.

What I think we'll see (in fact, I'm pretty sure of it) is a paper later on this year giving a pretty good summary of natural variability that led to the «hiatus» in atmospheric temperature increases and their relative contributions:

My own expectation is that we will have a great increase in year - over-year variability but that it will be difficult to say much else.

A fragmentation of the cultural landscapes in the arid and semi-arid lands of Mongolia has increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacities to climate variability of traditional pastoral systems, which have evolved over thousands of years.

You do not mention increased year - over-year and decade - over-decade variability as the climate system gets further from equilibrium.

All together, the trend and variability don't look that bad... Anyway, the trend of accumulation in the atmosphere is far more of interest than the year - by - year increase and the variability around the increase...

For the past 55 million years the global surface temperature has declined by more than 10 °C from a «hot house» condition into an «ice house» with increasing temperature variability as depicted in Figure 1 (Mya = millions of years ago).

«When you're increasing the variability of the climate, one year you can have a flood and the next year you can have a drought.

«Looking at 1,000 years of temperature records, researchers found that natural variability in surface temperatures over the course of just a decade can account for increases and dips in warming rates.»

The expected increase in temp in a BAU scenario will likely go far outside of the bound of variability that we have seen over the past 10,000 years

FE in # 510: referencing discussion on nature as a sink to last 50 years «there is no visible increase or decrease in natural variability over 50 years.»

As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.

To give a comparison, why the variability of a variable is not important at all: the increase or decrease in sealevel needs some 25 years to statistically separate the few mm change from the meters of variability caused by waves, tides, storm surges,...

We were talking about the variability of the CO2 increase over the past 50 years.

And that is all what matters for the year by year increase or decrease or the variability in the atmosphere.

Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 [3.1 mm / year] reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer - term trend is unclear.

I will confess that I was initially baffled by this post, for it was my prejudice that the general increase in OHC over the last ~ 50 years leaves so little room for benign warming due to some internal variability, that is I failed initially to see what case had to be answered and hence I failed to comprehend your argument.

The fact that unforced variability in the climate system can offset anthropogenic forcing changes on a time scale of about 15 years and smaller does not logically imply that unforced variability is also the primary cause of the statistically significant temperature increase since the mid 1970ies.

However, the increase in sea ice extent for 2009 does not exceed past interannual variability in a near - continuous, 30 - year downward trend in summer sea ice extent.

The robustly project increased moisture flux convergence and precipitation in the pan-Arctic region over the 21st century, as did their AR4 counterparts (Kattsov et al., 2007; Rawlins et al., 2010 Then we get: since nearly all models project a large precipitation increase rising above the variability year - round, it is likely the pan-Arctic region will experience a statistically - significant increase in precipitation by mid-century.

Irrespective of what one thinks about aerosol forcing, it would be hard to argue that the rate of net forcing increase and / or over-all radiative imbalance has actually dropped markedly in recent years, so any change in net heat uptake can only be reasonably attributed to a bit of natural variability or observational uncertainty.

The Earth responds to the milliwatts per year from increasing CO2 at the same rate that it responds to seasonal solar power variability.

The direct climate forcing due to measured solar variability, about 0.2 W / m2, is comparable to the increase in carbon dioxide forcing that occurs in about seven years, using recent CO2 growth rates.

«However, Fig. 15 and the associated uncertainties discussed in Section 3.4 show that long term estimates of time variable sea level acceleration in 203 year global reconstruction are significantly positive, which supports our previous finding (Jevrejeva et al., 2008a), that despite strong low frequency variability (larger than 60 years) the rate of sea level rise is increasing with time.»

Even significant if you include the year by year variability in increase rate (of + / - 0.5 ppmv) around the trend.

I don't consider myself to be an expert by any means but in the few years I have been taking an interest in the subject of climate change I have tried to educate myself as much as possible about the various scientific arguments surrounding the subject, and one thing that has constantly been impressed upon my mind is that when there is a long term trend caused by increasing GHG levels there will periods when it is masked (or accentuated) by short term natural variability.

Apart from colder regions and seasons, characterised by greater internal climate variability, the odds of warm events are found to have significantly increased and temperatures above the threshold of 1 - in - 10 year events during 1961 — 1990 have become at least twice as likely to occur.