Phil Jones's post climategate statement of a 15
year warming hiatus may also point to a bit of decency and honesty in a CRU elite, but he has sadly stepped back recently on this topic by stating that 16 (17?)
Not exact matches
He points to the fact that Smith is currently investigating the activities of federal climate scientists whose research last
year undermined claims by Climate Change skeptics that global
warming was going through a «
hiatus».
The report acknowledged a 15 -
year hiatus in the impact on climate change but the panel made clear it was 95 % certain humans were primarily responsible for global
warming.
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA sea surface temperature datasets, finding that the rate of global
warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «
hiatus» in
warming in the first fifteen
years of the 21st century.
The deceleration in rising temperatures during this 15 -
year period is sometimes referred to as a «pause» or «
hiatus» in global
warming, and has raised questions about why the rate of surface
warming on Earth has been markedly slower than in previous decades.
An important emerging issue, according to Stocker, is whether the unexpected
hiatus in atmospheric
warming over the past 15
years is a blip or evidence of a longer term trend.
The global
warming hiatus — a decade - plus slowdown in
warming — could be chalked up to some buoys, a few extra
years of data and a couple buckets of seawater.
And it's the
year in which any credible sign of a pause or «
hiatus» in the
warming of Earth's surface through present day was thoroughly refuted.
The report touches on the «temperature
hiatus» of the last 15
years, but notes (as in the graphic above) that the basic trend in
warming is unrelenting when looked at decade by decade.
Remember the falsification of global
warming due to a few
years of the
hiatus or an ice - free Arctic after a few
years of expanding sea ice?
These earlier
years, mainly El Nino
years, average 11.5
years earlier than the projected recent hottest four, perhaps suggesting a rough calculation of the recent rate of AGW of at +0.16 ºC / decade, this of course the
warming trend of peak
years through the so - called «
hiatus»
years and being «peak
years», it is a rate which assumes cooler
years will be coming along soon.
«With the improvements to the land and ocean data sets and the addition of two more
years of data, NCEI scientists found that there has been no
hiatus in the global rate of
warming.
It seemed to me that the
hiatus in the
warming, which by then was approaching ten
years in length, should not be dismissed as a statistical fluke.
And then he has the cheek to end his account by throwing an accusation that «the glaring 15 +
year hiatus in
warming which is currently being swept under the rug.»
Which means no
warming for 18
years, same as our current
hiatus has just reached.
The error is small enough to have confidence that the ocean heat content has been increasing in the past 15
years, during the so called «
hiatus» in global
warming.
The press release from NOAA included this statement from Karl: «Adding in the last two
years of global surface temperature data and other improvements in the quality of the observed record provide evidence that contradict the notion of a
hiatus in recent global
warming trends.»
In the 10
years starting in 1942 there was not a
hiatus of
warming, there was cooling.
The last
year or so, driven by the unexplained
hiatus in
warming, we have seen substantially more attention being given to research on natural climate variability.
When flatlining temperatures wreck your global
warming agenda, refusing to rise after 18 + long
years in
hiatus, despite record human CO2 emissions over that same period, simply homogenise, adjust (tamper) with the data.
Just as importantly, he says, the model helps to explain regional trends that seem to defy the global
warming hiatus, including record - breaking heat in the United States last
year, and the continued decline of Arctic sea ice.
Two
years latter: (October 2011) Indeed, many of the scientists sorting out the
warming hiatus disagree with one another — in a chummy, scholarly way.
I presented links to the possible causes of the
warming of the period 80s and 90s (just like the scientists debating the possible causes of «
hiatus» of the last 13
years) and you dissmiss that as irrelevant?
Vaughan Pratt: An intriguing feature of the stadium - wave hypothesis is that it purports to explain a 15 -
year phenomenon, namely the recent
hiatus in global
warming, in terms of 300
years worth of data.
An intriguing feature of the stadium - wave hypothesis is that it purports to explain a 15 -
year phenomenon, namely the recent
hiatus in global
warming, in terms of 300
years worth of data.
This way we end up with two horizontal steps, both eighteen
years long, one consisting of the eighties and nineties and another one a third of a degree higher and encompassing the twenty - first century and its
hiatus /
warming.
Ole Willy says, «The
hiatus in
warming observed over the past 16
years demonstrates that CO2 is not a control knob on climate variability on decadal time scales.»
To be perfectly clear: Talk of a «
hiatus» or a «pause» in global
warming has been a contrarian talking point for about a decade, and there is clear evidence that this framing was picked up by the media (see Max Boykoff's article in Nature Climate Change last
year) and has now been picked up by some climate scientists.
They show this for the example of the supposed (but not real) «pause» or «
hiatus» in global
warming, for which some of us have been using the label «faux pause» for
years (check out #fauxpause on twitter).
If the oscillation is ENSO - PDO, which is what I think it is, then the rates, which end just after 2000 on th graph, would dip a bit for the
years called the
warming hiatus, and then spike to higher levels.
There is direct evidence from surface temperature data and atmospheric heat content data (both data sets with a relatively high level of maturity) of a plateau or
hiatus of the
warming for the past 16
years.
150
years of
warming is actually evidence against since there are two extended periods of cooling during that time lasting 30 to 40
years each which is far longer than the current
hiatus.
Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or
hiatus in the
warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17
years; longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a
warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.
Box 9.2 Climate Models and the
Hiatus in Global Mean Surface
Warming of the Past 15
Years «The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a
Years «The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15
years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a
years than over the past 30 to 60
years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a
years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c).
It lasted from from 1979 to 1997, eighteen
years, which is as long as the current
hiatus /
warming has lasted.
There is no
warming from 1979 to 1997 which makes this period another 18
year long
hiatus, only hidden by fake
warming.
Per NOAA, the U.S.
warming pause (aka the «
Hiatus») has now achieved a 19 -
year stall (see adjacent chart).
These include claiming that addressing climate change will keep the poor in «energy poverty»; citing the global
warming «
hiatus» or «pause» to dismiss concerns about climate change; pointing to changes in the climate hundreds or thousands of
years ago to deny that the current
warming is caused by humans; alleging that unmitigated climate change will be a good thing; disputing that climate change is accelerating sea level rise; and denying that climate change is making weather disasters more costly.
Fourth, although the satellite evidence clearly indicates that the atmosphere has
warmed since 1979, that
warming has stalled since the 1998 peak - Chart # 2's 5 -
year average for the RSS dataset vividly shows the «Pause /
Hiatus / Stall», equal to a cooling rate of -0.1 / century.
So no matter how many record
warming years you have according to the simple weather or yearly cycles estimations, or how many such record
years you may «produce», it does not really mean anything in climate terms,............... that is why these crazy records make not even a dent to the plateau or the
hiatus... or put another way....
And as the entire world knows by now, global
warming is stuck in «The
Hiatus» that has resulted in temperatures barely budging over the last 16
years.
The known «
hiatus» in global
warming over the last 15
years has been a major climate issue, discussed both inside and outside the scientific community.
• If modern
warming were to revert to the earlier
warming trend (after the «
hiatus»), by
year 2100AD global temperatures would increase by +0.65 °C.
[CRU researcher] Phil Jones wrote the email in 1999, immediately following what still ranks as one of the hottest
years on record, and well before the idea of a «slowdown» or «
hiatus» or even «decline» in
warming gained currency.
In more recent
years, following events such as Climategate, and fatigue with the over-stated messages from the environmental movement and world leaders, the disarray of the UNFCCC process, and a 17
year long
hiatus in surface
warming, this camp is now respectable.
The impetus for the new publicized fears of cooling comes from the indisputable empirical evidence that global
warming is suffering a non-predicted «
hiatus» (i.e.
warming is stalled, paused, stopped, etc.) these last 15 +
years.
Judth, As the»
hiatus» seems to be a central point in your idea that climate sentivity might be lower than certain models indicate, I am wondering about your thoughts on what this
warm non-El Nino
year means.
Well, it has been 17
years and whether there is a
hiatus like satellites show, or a slight
warming per Karl, the fact is the models have now been invalidated by observation.
Now forced to explain the
warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60
years.»
«As the»
hiatus» seems to be a central point in your idea that climate sentivity might be lower than certain models indicate, I am wondering about your thoughts on what this
warm non-El Nino
year means.