As Table 1 shows, filtering out these external effects increased the 32 -
year warming trend in every data set except UAH.
When the phase of natural variability is taken into account, the model 15 -
year warming trends in CMIP5 projections well estimate the observed trends for all 15 - year periods over the past half - century.
Not exact matches
While this is bad news for the planet, it's good news for climate change scientists who have — for the last two decades — puzzled over
warming trends in ocean surface temperatures for nearly 20
years.
But it also follows
trends that are often seen
in northeastern states — a loss of a manufacturing base and companies preferring to move their businesses to
warmer temperatures where they can operate
year - round.
Because of the strong recent
warming, the updated
trend over 1906 to 2005 is now 0.74 ± 0.18 degree C. Note that the 1956 to 2005
trend alone is 0.65 ± 0.15 degree C, emphasizing that the majority of 20th - century
warming occurred
in the past 50
years.
While natural patterns of certain atmospheric and ocean conditions are already known to influence Greenland melt, the study highlights the importance of a long - term
warming trend to account for the unprecedented west Greenland melt rates
in recent
years.
Darkness and heat feed on each other
in new simulations that predict a 20 -
year warming trend on the Red Planet
Researchers found an overall
warming trend in air temperature of 0.023 C (0.041 F) per
year, and
in water temperature of 0.028 C (0.050 F) per
year over 51
years.
While a 16 -
year - period is too short a time to draw conclusions about
trends, the researchers found that
warming continued at most locations on the planet and during much of the
year, but that
warming was offset by strong cooling during winter months
in the Northern Hemisphere.
While a strong El Niño provided a boost to global temperatures last
year, the main driver of the planet's temperature surge, as well as other climate
trends, is the
warming caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
Launching his long - awaited plan to combat climate change today, Obama explicitly linked current hardships to our planet's
warming trend: «Farmers see crops wilted one
year, washed away the next, and the higher food prices get passed on to you,» he told an audience at Georgetown University
in Washington DC.
An important emerging issue, according to Stocker, is whether the unexpected hiatus
in atmospheric
warming over the past 15
years is a blip or evidence of a longer term
trend.
Causes of
warming trends at higher latitudes have gained more widespread attention from researchers
in the past few decades, but the idea that the Arctic would
warm faster than the rest of the planet has been around for more than 100
years.
This
year has already brought higher temperatures than normal nation - wide, and that
trend is expected to continue,
in part due to global
warming which is caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
Climate modeling shows that the
trends of
warming ocean temperatures, stronger winds and increasingly strong upwelling events are expected to continue
in the coming
years as carbon dioxide concentrations
in the atmosphere increase.
«It does show that what has happened
in the last 30
years — a
warming trend — puts us outside of all but the most extreme single
years every 500
years since the Ice Age.
The
warming trend was visible, Hansen said, even
in this
year's bitter Northern Hemisphere winter, which blanketed Britain and the East Coast
in snow and had Congressional Republicans mocking former Vice President Al Gore for his climate claims.
Now, one
year doesn't make a
trend, but this does — 14 of the 15
warmest years on record have all fallen
in the first 15
years of this century.»
To explore the links between climatic
warming and rainfall
in drylands, scientists from the Universities of Cardiff and Bristol analysed more than 50
years of detailed rainfall data (measured every minute) from a semi-arid drainage basin
in south east Arizona exhibiting an upward
trend in temperatures during that period.
But the period of time over which the team analysed the long - term
trend in warming was the past 50
years,
in which this oscillation hasn't changed significantly — so almost all the
warming looks to have been the result of anthropogenic climate change.
While 2014 temperatures continue the planet's long - term
warming trend, scientists still expect to see
year - to -
year fluctuations
in average global temperature caused by phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña.
These phenomena
warm or cool the tropical Pacific and are thought to have played a role
in the flattening of the long - term
warming trend over the past 15
years.
Despite the strong
warming trend of the past 15
years, worldwide temperatures have risen less than models predict, given the build - up of carbon dioxide
in the air to 25 per cent above pre-industrial levels.
DUMBING DOWN
In search of a global explanation for our cranial downsizing, some scientists have pointed to a warming trend in the earth's climate that also began 20,000 years ag
In search of a global explanation for our cranial downsizing, some scientists have pointed to a
warming trend in the earth's climate that also began 20,000 years ag
in the earth's climate that also began 20,000
years ago.
«Last
year's temperatures had an assist from El Niño, but it is the cumulative effect of the long - term
trend that has resulted
in the record
warming that we are seeing.»
So the report notes that the current «pause»
in new global average temperature records since 1998 — a
year that saw the second strongest El Nino on record and shattered
warming records — does not reflect the long - term
trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases as well as the cooling contributions of volcanic eruptions.
However, Goddard said the results don't fully show the slowdown has disappeared when comparing the past 15
years to the decades preceding that period and that understanding the natural fluctuations
in climate on a
year - to -
year (or even decade - to - decade) basis provides important context to the
warming trends driven by carbon dioxide.
The findings show a slight but notable increase
in that average temperature, putting a dent
in the idea that global
warming has slowed over the past 15
years, a
trend highlighted
in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Results on the
trend toward advanced spring emergence were published this February
in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Among the paper's findings: nymphal ticks peak
in the spring, larval ticks peak
in the summer, and both emerge nearly three weeks earlier
in warmer years.
Peter Stott, the head of climate monitoring at the U.K. Met Office, agreed, noting
in an email that, «The slowdown hasn't gone away, however, the results of this study still show the
warming trend over the past 15
years has been slower than previous 15
year periods.
This sustained climate
warming will drive the ocean's fishery yields into steep decline 200
years from now and that
trend could last at least a millennium, according to University of California, Irvine, and Cornell University researchers
in Science, March 9.
Complementary information to the Arctic
warming analysis would be using DWT's of the few left Upper Air stations
in the Circumpolar zone and crunch up temperature
trends of the entire atmosphere, when variances from
year to
year are very small, but are mostly for the
warmer.
The
trend in these responses changed course last
year, with slightly fewer Americans saying global
warming would have a significant effect
in their lifetimes.
You have also brushed over the fact that the
warming rate increases rapidly
in the mid and upper scenarios so using the centenial
trend applied to the next 20
years is inappopriate.
As has been seen
year after
year, the
warming of the Earth is causing major changes
in many aspects of the planet's climate, and 2014 was yet another
year that showed this
trend in stark relief, a report released Thursday says.
2) Three
years ago, I tried to get a handle on whether UHI was responsible for the recent
warming trend in most of the temperature datasets by comparing the
trends for the UAH / MSU 2LT channel and the Jones et al. surface data for some of the world's «empty places».
In the last 35
years of global
warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling
trend.
He had written a column saying that Soon and Baliunas had demonstrated that Michael Mann's work and the work of others (showing that the recent
warming trend surpassed that of any other
in the last 1000
years of climate) was wrong.
That's the equivalent of a missing area of sea ice almost four times the size of Colorado, and puts this
year right
in line with a
trend of ever decreasing sea ice
in the region as the climate
warms.
«From a policy perspective, we have to recognize that we have been
trending toward drier conditions over the last 1,500
years and the
warming in Nevada is only going to exacerbate that
trend,» he said, noting that «
warmer temperatures cause more soil moisture to evaporate so you amplify the effects of drought when climate is
warming.
While some places were cooler this
year than
in recent summers, they may have still been above average over the entire period of record, as
warming trends in
The
trend in more cold extremes was strongest during the period since pronounced Arctic
warming emerged, or about the last 25
years, which lends at least some support to the possibility that that
warming is helping fuel the
trend, Shepherd said.
Researchers from Dartmouth College and Boise State University are studying the importance of long - term
warming trends to account for the recent upswing
in melting rates
in recent
years.
Even over the past ten
years, despite a decrease
in solar forcing, the
trend continues to be one of
warming.
«Despite colder than average temperatures
in any one part of the world, temperatures over the planet as a whole continue the rapid
warming trend we've seen over the last 40
years,» said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
in New York City, at the press conference.
The climate
in most places has undergone minor changes over the past 200
years, and the land - based surface temperature record of the past 100
years exhibits
warming trends in many places.
That was unexpectedly close to the 0.09 C
warming trend found when similar research was published
in 1994 with only 15
years of data, said Dr. John Christy, director of UAH's Earth System Science Center.
This means that,
in the last 100
years, the Earth's temperature has reversed a long - term cooling
trend that began around 5000
years ago to become near the
warmest temperatures during the last 11,000
years.
They observed a Holocene cooling
trend in the Antarctic of -0.26 to -0.40 degrees C / millennium for the past 1900
years prior to present day
warming of the most recent 200
years.
It is now clear that, for thirty
years, we have been
in a strong global
warming trend at a rate of about 0.2 Celsius per decade for the past 30
years, [meaning] there has been 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.56 degrees Celsius) global
warming in the past 30
years.