A $ 4 move in the long bond would be significant enough — that is a top 5 move, but the shocker is seeing the 30 -
year yield near 3.20 %.
Treasury yields edged higher in early morning trade with the 2 -
year yield near 1.90 percent and the 10 -
year yield near 2.48 percent.
Not exact matches
CHICAGO / SAN FRANCISCO, April 20 - As the gap between short - and long - term borrowing costs hovers
near its lowest in more than 10
years, speculation has risen over whether the so - called
yield curve is signaling that a recession could be around the corner.
Elsewhere, the dollar held at a three - month high against a basket of currencies, after having received a boost from U.S. 10 -
year Treasury
yields holding
near the key 3 percent level.
During a public webcast on January 14 when the 10 -
year yield was at around 3.0 % and when Wall Street said it would climb to 3.4 %, Gundlach predicted that it could fall as low as 2.5 % in the
near - term.
In the bond market, the 10 -
year US Treasury
yield fell less than 1 basis point, to 2.79 %,
near the key 3 % level that traders are closely watching.
It is nowhere
near an inversion of the
yield curve — probably
years away.
He has implemented a massive stimulus policy by cutting the central bank's benchmark interest rate to negative, keeping the 10 -
year Japanese government bond
yield near 0 percent in an effort to control the
yield curve and stepping up the Bank of Japan's asset purchases.
CHICAGO / SAN FRANCISCO, April 20 (Reuters)- As the gap between short - and long - term borrowing costs hovers
near its lowest in more than 10
years, speculation has risen over whether the so - called
yield curve is signaling that a recession could be around the corner.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's gauge of inflation remains stubbornly below its 2 percent target, but U.S. 10 -
year Treasury
yields spiked to
near four -
year highs in January as a bond sell - off gathered steam.
The
yield on 10 -
year Treasury bond is hovering
near its highest levels in four
years.
The
yield on the benchmark 10 -
year Treasury notes, which moves inversely to price, was higher around 2.398 percent, while the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury bond held
near 3.002 percent.
The U.S. 10 -
year Treasury note
yield was lower in Tuesday trading,
near 2.31 percent.
Short - term
yields turned positive, with the two -
year note
yield near its highest level of the
year after comments from the Fed's Stanley Fischer.
Short - term bonds are looking attractive again after
years of
near - zero
yields.
The elder Buffett has shunned bonds in recent
years, saying that
near record - low
yields aren't enough to compensate for the risk of inflation.
Treasuries extended declines from October, pushing 10 -
year yields to a five - week high, as the probability of a Federal Reserve interest - rate increase by
year - end hovered
near 50 percent.
Demand for U.S. Treasurys in recent days helped push both the 10 -
year and 30 -
year bond
yields to
near their all - time lows Thursday, July 12.
The U.S. 10 -
year Treasury
yield may approach 3 %, but it shouldn't be anywhere
near 5 %.
Should the
yield curve steepen, with 10 -
year bond
yields moving above 2 % while short - term rates are anchored
near zero, it would imply that a longer term inflation fear is re-entering the market.
Precious and Industrial Metals Inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and interest - rate levels, especially real
yields, contributed to a 1.7 % rise in the spot price of gold (to US$ 1,325 per troy ounce), as did swings in the US dollar.1 Gold prices traded within the US$ 1,305 — 1,360 range throughout the period, reached 18 - month highs in March and capped their third straight quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011.1 Haven demand was a key support as exchange - traded gold holdings of 2,269 metric tons (mt)
neared a five -
year high.1 The Fed is widely expected to boost borrowing costs, and investors have been carefully watching the central bank's statements to see whether it targets more rate increases in 2018 than previously projected.
According to Bloomberg data, EM debt is offering
yields of above 4 %, and despite a strong
year - to - date performance (more than 13 %), we see potential for significant income with lowered spread risk, given the diminished expectations of a
near - term Fed move.
The BoJ has also been purchasing «
yield curve control» by pegging the 10 -
year JGB
yield to
near 0.0 %.
After rising to roughly 2.60 % in early March — when consumer confidence was
near its recent zenith — 10 -
year Treasury
yields fell to around 2.15 % by mid-June.
«It grows earnings not so much by the brilliance of management or the diversity of their operations, as Welch and Immelt claim, but through the acquisition of companies (more than 100 companies in each of the last five
years) using high - powered, high P / E multiple GE stock or cheap
near Treasury Bill
yielding commercial paper.
More impressive still is that in spite of the Fed raising short - term interest rates by a total of 1.0 % since mid-December 2015, the approximately 2.30 %
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury as of mid-July is
near where it was at the end of 2015 and 2016 (see the chart below).
With IBM stock trading for just 11 times its guidance for adjusted earnings this
year, investors can get a
near - 4 % dividend
yield, along with a long history of dividend growth, all for a bargain price.
10
year UST sold off by 7bp today and went out
yielding 2.55 %, the cheapest of the
year (
near term target 2.625 % aka 2 5/8 %).
From around 5.4 per cent at the time of the previous Statement,
yields on 10 -
year bonds fell to a low of 5.1 per cent in mid December, but have since risen back to
near 5.4 per cent.
While
yields remain
near historic lows, they are widely expected to go up next
year as the Federal Reserve continues raising rates to keep the economy from overheating.
What could be 10 % upside (if the price catches up to estimated intrinsic value), a
near - term forecast for 10 % compound annual EPS growth, and a 3 %
yield adds up to what could be a 23 % total return over the next
year!
At the same time, the U.S. 10 -
year Treasury bond
yield dipped from 2.43 % to 2.34 % week - over-week, while WTI oil prices jumped to a 2 1/2 -
year high
near $ 56.
Short term interest rates remain
near zero, 10 -
year bond
yields have declined below 2 %, and our estimate of 10 -
year S&P 500 total returns has declined to just 1.4 % (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these historically - reliable estimates).
On the demand side, plenty of new, non-traditional buyers of high
yield entered the market as sovereign
yields have hovered
near all - time lows — and even fallen below 0 % in many instances — for several
years.
Donald Trump's election victory drove up 10 -
year U.S. Treasury
yields and pushed the S&P 500
near record highs, reinforcing the inverse bond - stock relationship.
If we can avoid capital losses in the
near term and then buy investment - worthy assets after they have dropped in price and offer much less capital risk and much higher income
yields again, then there is hope for higher compound returns for many
years thereafter.
Moreover, by keeping short - run interest rates
near zero for more than seven
years, paying interest on excess reserves (IOER) above the effective fed funds rate, and convincing markets that rates would stay low for a long time (forward guidance), the Fed has increased the reach for
yield and appears more interested in priming Wall Street than in letting markets set interest rates and allocate credit.
In 2009, for instance, builders erecting a seawall in Santa Cruz, California, uncovered three whales, two porpoises, and other marine life from 12 million to 15 million
years ago, while a recent expansion of the Caldecott Tunnel
near Berkeley, California,
yielded extinct camels, rhinos, and giant wolverines.
According to Colin Speller of ADAS, a government - owned agricultural research agency
near Ely in Cambridgeshire, it could compete with short - rotation coppicing using trees such as willow and poplar, which usually achieve
yields of up to 16 tonnes per hectare per
year.
Over three
years of field studies in China, researchers consistently demonstrated that SUSIBA2 delivered increased crop
yields and a
near elimination of methane emissions.
Just 4 light -
years away, our
nearest stellar neighbor has failed to
yield exoplanets, but searches for Earth - like planets are ongoing.
Other bond markets, like the high
yield corporate and senior loan markets often have high concentrations of debt maturing in specific
years in the
near future — often referred to as a «maturity cliff».
Indeed, in the event of a
near - term expectation of debt default, we would probably see 1 -
year Greek
yields spiking above 40 %, and 3 - month
yields well above 100 % annualized (which would be associated with 3 - month bills trading well below 85 % of face).
The U.S. 10 -
year Treasury
yield may approach 3 %, but it shouldn't be anywhere
near 5 %.
Today the ratio sits
near 2:7 — almost three
years of
yield to offset the same 1 % uptick.
MMF
yields have also been stuck
near zero for the past four
years.
Rather than pursue cross-over corporates or high -
yield or even long - term investment grade corporates, we have stayed
near the middle of the curve with funds like: (1) SPDR Nuveen Muni (TFI), (2) Vanguard Total Bond (BND), (3) iShares 7 - 10
Year Treasury (IEF) and (4) iShares 3 - 7
Year Treasury (IEI).
What could be 10 % upside (if the price catches up to estimated intrinsic value), a
near - term forecast for 10 % compound annual EPS growth, and a 3 %
yield adds up to what could be a 23 % total return over the next
year!
Ten -
year German and U.S. government debt
yields stayed
near historic lows below 2 percent, signaling that the intensive search for safety was continuing.
Of course, now that the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates once [from 25 basis points to 50 basis points in December 2015, the first rise in seven
years] and threatens to do so again, investors are staying
near the short end of the
yield curve, knowing that the longer you go out the bigger the capital losses should rates spike significantly higher.