Back then, 10 -
year yields went from 2 % to 3 % on a frozen rope.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as Japan's 10 -
year yields went negative and German bund yields sank.
If the 10 -
year yield goes above 2.63 %, however, he thinks it would be a «big deal» that could accelerate the bond sell - off.
Sara Silverstein: So the 10 -
year yield went through an important threshold at 3 %, and stocks didn't respond that great, what do you think about that?
Can 2 -
year yields go lower?
«It is kind of hard not to see the 10 -
year yield going to 5.50 percent, if not by summer's end then by the year's end,» said Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Research and Analytics, speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit on Wednesday.
Still, I don't see, the 10 -
year yield going from 2 % down to 1 %.
Not exact matches
But in contrarian fashion, DoubleLine Capital's Jeff Gundlach has been arguing that the 10 -
year Treasury
yield isn't destined to
go up.
That's exactly what has happened over the last month, as shown in this graph of the
yield on the 10
year US treasury bond for the last
year (keep in mind that
yields going up means prices
going down):
So, it is a very different market than it was 10
years ago, and you're
going to see a lot of corporate bond issuance as these infrastructure projects
go out there, and you can capture some pretty good
yields and you know what you're buying because it's a corporate bond.
While some viewers called it «gross» and «vulgar,» the spot racked up some 20 million YouTube views by the end of last
year, at one point
yielding one share for every nine views — proof positive that schoolyard humor never
goes out of style.
Once again, Major is
going against the grain to say
yields will fall even further, though the Fed has maintained that it could raise short - term interest rates this
year.
Last
year, when the Fed hinted that it was
going to stop buying bonds, tapering its quantitative easing, bond
yields jumped nearly 2 % points in just a few days.
It's «almost for sure» that the 10 -
year yield is
going to take out 3 % in 2017, Gundlach said.
The
yield on the 10 -
year has
gone from a low at the start of January of 2.40 percent to inches away from 3 percent on Monday.
Meanwhile, benchmark 10 -
year note
yields have broken above a long - term downtrend in effect since the 1980s, which some technical strategists see as a bearish indicator
going forward.
Ten -
year Italian bond
yields have risen 17 basis points to 4.55 percent, since the news of an uncertain outcome spread on Monday but the Italian treasury is
going ahead with a sale of 6.5 billion euros ($ 8.5 billion) of 5 and 10 -
year bonds on Wednesday.
«We've been trying to tell you that for ages and all these guys come on your show and tell you for four, five
years, bond
yields are
going up, they're
going to heaven and they never do.
«Why spend money on wellness or disease management programs, programs which
yield a return on investment only after several
years, for a policyholder who probably isn't
going to stick around long?»
«If you
go back to 1999 and 2007, the
yield curve was flattening for a
year while the stock market was
going straight to the moon, and that's exactly what we're having now,» said Maley.
And I mean as the delicious irony of this business, we're worried about what the crop's
going to be this
year and when it's
going to
yield and we're already talking about pricing for the spring of» 13.
For instance, the U.S. high
yield market, as measured by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2 % Issuer Capped index, experienced its worst start to a year ever, going back to 1994, Bloomberg data
yield market, as measured by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High
Yield 2 % Issuer Capped index, experienced its worst start to a year ever, going back to 1994, Bloomberg data
Yield 2 % Issuer Capped index, experienced its worst start to a
year ever,
going back to 1994, Bloomberg data show.
Going forward, roll
yields will actually result in positive returns, whereas they've been a drag on returns in recent
years.
This leaves us roughly in the same position that we started the
year, slightly overweight to spread product, i.e., investment - grade and high -
yield corporate bonds and emerging markets (more recently, we also
went back to a slight overweight on commercial mortgage - backed securities).
Stop the counterfeiting and stocks drop 50 % to
go back to their 100
year average 4 %
yield.
The benchmark 10 -
year Treasury
yield is on the verge of breaking 3 percent and is likely to
go higher from there, taking interest rates on mortgages and a whole range of business and consumer loans higher with it.
It's hard to believe it's just a few
years since countries like Ireland and Spain had to
go cap - in - hand to international lenders — at least if you look at their bond
yields.
Don't be fooled by the 1.50 %
yield as the company will double its payment every 7
years going forward.
A rise of 1 - 2 % isn't
going to do much, and I don't think we'll rise by more than 1 - 2 % on the 10 -
year bond
yield anyway, so nobody needs to panic.
Later in the afternoon, US stocks pared some gains but
went out firm (S&P +28 to 2667), while the 10 -
year yield hovered around 2.99 %.
The speech
goes on to outline some of the economic surprises that came to pass in the intervening
years, including: the «mining boom mark II»; the further significant rise and then subsequent fall in Australia's terms of trade; and the search for
yield in global capital markets driven by ongoing ultra-easy monetary policy in the major economies.
April 20, 2018 • Concerns about the
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury note
going above three percent are overblown.
Going back five
years yields even better results for investors and potentially reinforces the value of having a long - term time horizon and being patient:
The
yield on the 10 -
year Treasury bond climbed above 3 % for the first time since 2014, but of greater concern to many market participants were remarks in major corporate earnings reports suggesting that business conditions had likely hit their peak and were poised to deteriorate
going forward.
Don't
go barking up the wrong tree in the
Year of the Dog A predictable wave of profit taking and risk reduction, as is standard form ahead of US long weekends, dominated Friday session leading to USD gains as US
yields pulled back.
10
year UST sold off by 7bp today and
went out
yielding 2.55 %, the cheapest of the
year (near term target 2.625 % aka 2 5/8 %).
If the average real
yield of the linker fund
goes up 1 % then you lose 23 % but will recover it in 23
years (assuming duration is 23 and no further change in interest rates).
Spanish ten -
year yields yesterday
went above 6 %, in a sign that the markets are becoming wary of the seeming complacency of the Spanish prime minister; there is now a sense that he might not apply for a programme before next month's regional election — and maybe not at all;
Since the September low point last
year US 10 - Year bond yields have risen 90bps, this compares to 125bps from the low point in July 2016 through to March 2017, or if you count it as one big move they've gone up 158
year US 10 -
Year bond yields have risen 90bps, this compares to 125bps from the low point in July 2016 through to March 2017, or if you count it as one big move they've gone up 158
Year bond
yields have risen 90bps, this compares to 125bps from the low point in July 2016 through to March 2017, or if you count it as one big move they've
gone up 158bps.
While
yields remain near historic lows, they are widely expected to
go up next
year as the Federal Reserve continues raising rates to keep the economy from overheating.
With 25 consecutive
years of dividend growth, a
yield over 5 %, the possibility that shares are 7 % undervalued, and the ability to collect «monthly rent checks» without having to actually
go out and do the hard work typically involved with being a landlord, this is a stock that should be on every dividend growth investor's radar right now.
I think over the past 10
years, due to the zero - interest - rate policies by the global central banks, we have had a massive amount of debt issuance that's occurred as investors had been encouraged to
go out the curve or down the credit curve in order to seek income, seek
yield.
With the Federal Reserve pointing toward three more interest rate hikes this
year, money market fund
yields are likely to
go higher.
Not to beleaguer the ongoing developments in the US Bond markets, but while ten
years US
yield count on the Greenbacks measuring tape, the unwinding of the USD geopolitical risk premium
goes on and price action suggests we should expect... Read more
HYHG tracks an index that
goes long on recently issued, high -
yield USD debt from US and Canadian issuers, while shorting a duration - matched combination of 2 -, 5 - and 10 -
year US Treasurys.
Indeed, because all of this
yield seeking has driven a persistent uptrend in speculative assets in recent
years, investors seem to believe that «QE just makes prices
go up» in a way that ensures a permanent future of diagonally escalating prices.
Now there are times that the
yield curve is inverted because we are predicting a slowdown in the economy but I don't think, you know, here we are into the eighth
year of economic expansion, ninth maybe, and it doesn't really seem to be any particular reason that that economic expansion is
going to die any time soon, so the traditional inverted
yield curve «we're about to
go into recession» I don't see.
Ten -
year Treasury
yields hit a seven - month high during October, but receded somewhat amid uncertainty over who will lead the Federal Reserve
going forward.
Even so, that doesn't mean mortgage rates will
go up because mortgage rates are more tied to the 10 -
year bond
yield which has been declining due to all the risk in the markets.
We're still calling for the 10 -
year Treasury to
go to 2 %
yield or lower.