In the last few
years annual means temperatures at the remote Quatsino and Estevan, BC have dropped back to the chilly level of the early 1900 ’s
«It is urgent because in the last 10
years the annual mean temperature on the Col du Dôme has risen by 1.5 degrees C, from — 14 degrees Celsius to — 12.5 degrees Celsius.»
Not exact matches
In response, lakebed
temperatures of Arctic lakes less than 1 meter (3 feet) deep have warmed by 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 degrees Fahrenheit) during the past three decades, and during five of the last seven
years, the
mean annual lakebed
temperature has been above freezing.
The lower 48 states are projected to cross the 2 - degree C warming threshold about 10 to 20
years earlier than the global
mean annual temperature, they note.
«The
year whose
annual mean temperature is likely to be most strongly influenced by the current El Niño is 2016 rather than 2015,» the WMO said.
Following its warmest
year on record in 2013 and third warmest in 2014, 2015 remained warm in Australia, with the country experiencing its fifth highest nationally - averaged
annual temperature in the 106 -
year period of record, with a
mean temperature 0.83 °C (1.49 °F) higher than the 1961 — 1990 average, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
That is, in 1698 the
mean annual temperature was 7.63 deg C following which, apart from a few exceptions, the
temperature increased
year on
year until 1733 when a
mean of 10.47 deg C was recorded.
To contribute to an understanding of the underlying causes of these changes we compile various environmental records (and model - based interpretations of some of them) in order to calculate the direct effect of various processes on Earth's radiative budget and, thus, on global
annual mean surface
temperature over the last 800,000
years.
The fact that the observations have a «memory» from month to month (because the ocean is slow to change
temperature) allows us to predict the
annual mean from the
year - to - date average (which implicitly includes the ENSO effect).
The
annual ArtReview Power 100 is now an established as a
means for taking the
temperature of the art world, and this
year the Berlin - based artist and writer Hito Steyerl has claimed the number one spot.
The warming trends in looking at numerous 100
year temperature plots from northern and high elevation climate stations... i.e. warming trends in
annual mean and minimum
temperature averages, winter monthly
means and minimums and especially winter minimum
temperatures and dewpoints... indicate climate warming that is being driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — no visible effects from other things like changes in solar radiation or the levels of cosmic rays.
What would be interesting to look at, rather than
mean annual temperatures is the variability of
temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the
year.
However, the
annual mean predictions for the global
temperature that they issue every
year does have some skill — being based mainly on the state of ENSO at the start of the
year.
Figure 1.4 http://cybele.bu.edu/courses/gg312fall02/chap01/figures/figure1.4.gif shows the natural variability of the
annual mean surface
temperature on several different spatial scales from a climate model simulation for 200
years.
There is a strong correlation between
annual mean temperatures (in the satellite tropospheric records and surface analyses) and the state of ENSO at the end of the previous
year.
Thus, the simplest thing to do is to: a) construct a time series of
annual global
temperature averages, add a random component to each
year (value drawn from a gaussian with the given standard deviation and
mean zero).
Estimates of the global and
annual mean temperature based on a number of different data sets, including both traditional analyses as well as re-analyses (also see the last 15
years).
Annual mean European surface air
temperatures have increased by around 0.85 °C over the last 100
years.
As ECS showed in their paper (Table 1), the high - frequency correlations with NH
mean annual temperatures after 20 -
year high - pass filtering is only 0.15.
The
annual global
mean temperature for every
year since the TAR has been among the 10 warmest
years since the beginning of the instrumental record.
The focus on anomalys has distracted from the most relevant metric, Global
Annual Average
Temperature, which has been increasing every
year for the last 10 and longer,
meaning no «Plateau»..
For decades we have reported / updated the global
temperature record, showing the calendar -
year annual -
mean temperature, usually with the 5 -
year running -
mean included.
The reason I am persisting with this is that I think there has been no plateau in Global warming over the last 10
years, as every
year has been above average thus the average of the population is increasing,
meaning Annual Global Average
Temperature has been increasing.
«The
year whose
annual mean temperature is likely to be most strongly influenced by the current El Niño is 2016 rather than 2015,» the WMO said.
Their «SAT» refers to
mean annual surface air
temperature in the zone from 70 to 85 degrees N for the
years 1900 to 2007
Last
year, the paper by Wentz et al. showed that over several parts of the world,
mean annual precipitation has been on the rise with increasing
temperature.
The difference in
annual mean and 5 -
year mean global land - ocean
temperature using ERSST v4 and v3b.
Below is an approximate 100
year comparison of average
annual mean minimum and maximum
temperatures at 32 different locations across Western Australia, including weather in the capital city of Perth.
But a «10 -
year «standstill» in the five -
year mean global
temperature» could equal a «15 -
year «pause» in the average
annual temperature».
Figure 3, from Hansen & Lebedeff 1987 (apologies for the poor quality, this is an older paper) plots the correlation coefficients versus separation for the
annual mean temperature changes between randomly selected pairs of stations with at least 50 common
years in their records.
I do not believe that global
mean annual temperatures have simply cooled progressively over thousands of
years as Mike appears to and I contend that that there is strong evidence for major changes in climate over the Holocene (not Milankovich) that require explanation
Based on 1976 to 1995
temperature data from 3 key UK sites, Levermore and Keeble (1998) found that the
annual mean dry - bulb
temperature had increased by about 1 °C over the 19 -
year period, with milder winters and warmer summers.
2010 BoM
annual records state that «Perth Metro's
annual mean daily maximum
temperature in 2010 was 25.3 C, which was the warmest
year on record since records commenced in 1897», while «Perth Metro's
annual mean daily minimum
temperature in 2010 was 12.4 C, which was 0.3 C below normal»
The high
annual mean in 2015 was because of the early onset of warm Pacific sea surface
temperatures persisting through the
year.
Using permutation tests between
temperature metrics at Butaritari versus Abaiang and North Tarawa, we found significant differences in the
mean of the maximum
annual DHW (
mean 2.3 °C · week versus 3.9 °C · week, p < 0.01) and the scaled
year - to -
year temperature variability metrics (
mean 1.3 °C · week versus 1.5 °C · week, p < 0.01).
On blogs like Dr. Curry's I continually see learned, and heated, arguments over the
meaning of fluctuations in the «
annual temperature of the earth» in the hundredths of a degree range (sometimes thousandths), with data plotted over hundreds or thousands of years, while noticing that there doesn't seem to be a DEFINITION of the «Annual Temperature of the Earth» and that the climate science community, collectively, would be hard pressed to provide me with an «Annual Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of their c
annual temperature of the earth» in the hundredths of a degree range (sometimes thousandths), with data plotted over hundreds or thousands of years, while noticing that there doesn't seem to be a DEFINITION of the «Annual Temperature of the Earth» and that the climate science community, collectively, would be hard pressed to provide me with an «Annual Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of th
temperature of the earth» in the hundredths of a degree range (sometimes thousandths), with data plotted over hundreds or thousands of
years, while noticing that there doesn't seem to be a DEFINITION of the «
Annual Temperature of the Earth» and that the climate science community, collectively, would be hard pressed to provide me with an «Annual Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of their c
Annual Temperature of the Earth» and that the climate science community, collectively, would be hard pressed to provide me with an «Annual Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of th
Temperature of the Earth» and that the climate science community, collectively, would be hard pressed to provide me with an «
Annual Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of their c
Annual Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of th
Temperature of Bob's House» with a credible and defensible resolution and precision of + / -.01 degree, using an instrumentation system of their choice.
Passive House sets the ultimate standard in thermal efficiency which
means inhabitants benefit from perfectly comfortable
temperatures all
year round, without the need for gas and oil central heating, resulting in huge
annual savings as well as massive environmental benefits.
However, the National Assessment Synthesis Team, co-chaired by Thomas Karl, Director of the National Climatic Data Center, took the result so seriously that they commissioned an independent replication of this test, only more inclusive, using 1 -
year, 5 -
year, 10 -
year and 25 -
year running
means of the U.S.
annual temperature.
We calculated three metrics of thermal history: (1) the
mean of the
annual maximum DHW from 1985 — 2003 (2) the proportion of
years from 1985 to 2003 in which the maximum DHW exceeded 4 °C · week, and (3) a
year - to -
year temperature variability metric from [16], [46], which is the standard deviation of the maximum monthly SST from 1985 — 2000 scaled such that the
mean for the world's coral reefs is 1 °C.
The global
annual mean surface air
temperature change... centred at the time of CO2 doubling in a 1 % per
year compound CO2 increase scenario.
Moreover, different 30 -
year periods have been shown to exhibit differences in regional
annual mean baseline
temperature and precipitation of up to ± 0.5 ºC and ± 15 % respectively (Hulme and New, 1997; Visser et al., 2000; see also Chapter 2).
For example, the HadCRUT3, GISS, etc. data sets of
annual mean global
temperature each report global
temperature changes as differences from a 30 -
year average.
HadCRUT3, GISS, etc. data sets report
annual global
temperature (i.e. climate data obtained over each of a series of
years: one
year climate data) but often add 5 or 10
year running
means to graphical presentations of their data.
Image / animation at right: The animation to the right shows a basic demonstration of the increase in
annual mean temperature in five
year increments from 1880 through 2006.
Predictability and prediction studies have focused largely on
temperature, and there is evidence of skill in the prediction of variations in
annual means of
temperature over much of the globe for several
years, conditional on the initialization of the forecasts.
Hence on a niggardly small amount of uncertainty of + / -0.6 °C, the
annual mean global surface
temperature for 1909 could be as high as 14.03 °C, the
annual mean global surface
temperature for 2014 could as low as 13.98 °C, and all the others
years between 1880 could have a
mean global surface
temperature of somewhere in between 14.03 °C and 13.98 °C.
txt From Ray Bradley «The graph patches together 3 things: Mann et al NH
mean annual temps + 2 sigma standard error for AD1000 - 1980, + instrumental data for 1981 - 1998 + IPCC («do not quote, do not cite» projections for GLOBAL
temperature for the next 100
years, relative to 1998.»
Presumably if we did a 40
year smoothing on the
temperature record of the last 100
years it would show a lot less variation than when we show the data in an
annual form — but would it
mean missing out a lot of the useful information and giving a misleading impression?
The fact that the observations have a «memory» from month to month (because the ocean is slow to change
temperature) allows us to predict the
annual mean from the
year - to - date average (which implicitly includes the ENSO effect).
ECS is the increase in the global
annual mean surface
temperature caused by an instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 relative to the pre-industrial level after the model relaxes to radiative equilibrium, while the TCR is the
temperature increase averaged over 20
years centered on the time of doubling at a 1 % per
year compounded increase.