Alas, for
years bond investors have been accepting rates that in many cases don't even match inflation, and this represents one of the great investment challenges of our time.
Since late last
year bond investors have mostly been siding with Bernanke's view that inflation will slow along with the economy.
Inflation in Canada is currently hovering around 1.5 % per year, so 10 -
year bond investors are being rewarded with a 1.5 % real yield (3 % coupon — 1.5 % inflation).
Since late last
year bond investors have mostly been siding with Bernanke's view that inflation will slow along with the economy.
Even worse, going back 40 years to 1969, the 20 -
year bond investors still win, although by a marginal amount.
Not exact matches
So far this
year, not a single
bond from an emerging nation has defaulted, while 2015 saw just one, an issue from Ukraine, go bust, according to Moody's
Investors Service.
Although last
year was favorable for developing countries,
investors remember the painful «taper tantrum» that ensued several
years ago, when the Fed signaled it would begin pulling back on its massive
bond purchases that kept rates low while injecting liquidity in markets.
That means that losers will be
investors who bought 30 -
year, fixed - rate
bonds, because those values will go down.
The interest rate on 10 -
year bonds was 1.79 % at the end of 2014 — about half as much as the federal government had to offer to get
investors to buy its debt a decade ago.
Japanese government
bonds skidded in their worst sell - off in more than three
years, despite weaker stocks, accelerating a slide begun in the wake of last Friday's Bank of Japan easing steps that disappointed many
investors.
The idea that small companies should be able to sell small amounts of stocks and
bonds to
investors — which they've been prohibited from doing since the Depression — has exploded over the past few
years.
Sovereign
bonds will still prove popular for
investors over the next two
years and a sharp sell - off in fixed income will fail to materialize, an economist at UBS told CNBC Thursday.
In the past
year, Canadian securities regulators have raised the bar for exempt - market dealers, requiring them to be registered and
bonded, issue an offering memorandum with every deal and provide audited financial statements to
investors annually, says Sand, who supports this new layer of assurance.
By contrast, many
investors are moving into diversified investment - grade fixed products, such as the IShares Core U.S. Aggregate
Bond ETF (AGG), which has had net inflows of $ 435 million this quarter and $ 2.2 billion of net inflows
year - to - date.
The iShares 20 +
Year Treasury
Bond ETF has also been receiving increased attention from
investors.
First, he believes that an
investor in a low - cost S&P index fund who reinvests all dividends will do better — very likely substantially better — than an
investor who buys a 17 -
year government
bond and reinvests all of his coupons in the same instrument.
Some
investors are now making calls that the euro zone's central bank could end its massive
bond - buying program by the end of next
year, with a potential rate increase in the fourth quarter.
Only a
year ago, during the height of the rising interest - rate fears tied to Fed tapering,
investors were exiting
bond funds in droves.
Investors generally have been willing to put money in the
bond market this
year.
Investors were relieved to see
bond yields pull back from the four -
year highs they reached Wednesday.
Pimco, one of the world's largest
bond fund managers, and widely followed Guggenheim Partners are among the
investors who say benchmark 10 -
year Treasuries yielding 3 percent - now within reach - are too hard to resist.
«
Investors have been spoiled with the good returns
bonds have delivered for
years,» says John Canally, chief economic strategist at LPL Financial.
But more than anyone, Mr. Schäuble has come to embody the consensus that has helped shape European economic policy for
years: that the path to sustained economic recovery for financially troubled countries is to slash spending, raise taxes when necessary and win back the trust of
bond markets and other
investors by displaying commitment to fiscal prudence — even if that process imposes deep economic pain as it plays out.
For most
investors it probably doesn't make sense to invest any further out than intermediate
bonds or
bond funds (10
year maximum maturity) to lower the risk of large losses.
«As the U.S. economy slowed and Europe's debt crisis worsened,
investors sought the safety of Treasuries and sold the
bonds PIMCO had bet on, leaving the fund trailing 89 % of competitors in August and 67 % this
year through Sept. 8.»
Many
bond investors have learned the hard way over the past few
years that predicting the direction of interest rates can be extremely difficult.
Investors famously shorted Japanese government
bonds, or JGBs, a few
years ago but got burned; the bearish trade was dubbed the «widow - maker.»
Investors have been pouring money into
bond funds this
year while losing interest in bank products.
The U.S. 10 -
year Treasury yield reached nearly 2.65 %, the highest level since 2014, as
investors shunned
bonds amid expectations that the economy and inflation will pick up.
The minister spoke with
bond investors as part of preparations for a third international
bond issuance, Reuters reported, after the company placed US$ 17.5 billion in
bonds last
year and a US$ 9 - billion Sharia - compliant sukuk
bond in April this
year.
For example, some
investors may have taken on more risk in their portfolios in recent
years by moving into lower - quality
bonds or dividend stocks, in an attempt to generate additional yield.
BERLIN — Throughout the month, countries caught in the eye of the European financial storm, including Italy, Spain and France, have repeatedly defied expectations, selling big batches of
bonds to the public at interest rates significantly lower than
investors demanded at the height of the euro crisis late last
year.
The potential counter weights that could cap the 10 -
year yield would be a negative stock market reaction that drives
investors to
bonds; lower interest rates outside the U.S. that make the U.S. debt relatively more attractive, and good demand for longer - dated securities from insurers and others.
The shorter duration of the
bond effectively shortens the investment horizon that is required to «immunize» the
investor's terminal wealth (though not necessarily
year - to -
year values) from market fluctuations.
Investors in Treasury notes (which have shorter - term maturities, from 1 to 10
years) and Treasury
bonds (which have maturities of up to 30
years) receive interest payments, known as coupons, on their investment.
Given those durations, an
investor with 15 - 20
years to invest could literally plow their entire portfolio into stocks and long - term
bonds, in expectation of very high long - term returns, with the additional comfort that their financial security did not rely on the direction of the markets, thanks to the ability to reinvest generous coupon payments and dividends.
What we have really seen over the past several
years, in terms of the appreciation of markets and the decline of interest rates based on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of
investors in
bonds and stocks to earn an adequate return relative to their expected liabilities.
Investors who borrowed $ 100 in
bonds and invested in stocks earned a remarkable $ 1,156 after 30
years if they began in 1942 and $ 1,192 if they began in 1943.
At sub two percent on the ten -
year treasury, many
investors are questioning why bother owning
bonds at all.
A quick glance at the graph suggests that the wealth transfer from
bond to stock
investors has declined over the last 50
years and may now represent a much more modest premium for long - term stock
investors.
Over the last twenty
years,
investors have witnessed a steady decline in the interest rate on investment grade
bonds, GICs and term deposits.
So if
investors expect short - term rates to be zero for another 4
years, it would be reasonable for stocks and
bonds to be about 16 % higher than historical valuation norms.
Bond indexes have declined this
year, as the growing economy has led the Fed to raise interest rates and
investors have grown increasingly concerned about the potential for accelerating inflation.
DeMarco: Next
year may be challenging for
bond investors if rates rise and inflation picks up as we expect.
Meanwhile,
bond investors should brace for a flattening Treasury curve, with 10 -
year rates likely to tick higher, while the 30 -
year rate dips to 2 % late in 2018, which would be its lowest level since the financial crisis.
High - yield
bonds are in the eighth
year of an investment cycle that has seen assets under management grow threefold, to $ 300 billion, so interest among
investors remains high.
Last
year's poor showing by Canadian equities, combined with the Euro - zone crisis saw panicked
investors flock to the safety of quality
bonds.
Japanese shares hit a two - month closing high on Tuesday with financials leading gains after U.S.
bond yields spiked to four -
year highs and as
investors remained optimistic about upcoming earnings.
Our results represent the wealth transfer from
bond investors to equity
investors within each 30 -
year period in the United States.
It also found that during the same period, the average fixed - income
investor earned only a 6.08 % return per
year, while the long - term Government
Bond Index reaped 11.83 %.