The spread between the banks 5 years fixed posted mortgage rate and GOC 5
years bond yield used to be 200 bps on an average.
Not exact matches
By the way, the duration of the five -
year 5 %
bond (
using a current
yield of 3 % and semi-annual compounding) is 4.68
years (calculated on my spreadsheet).
Borrowers issued the fewest
bonds in Australia in almost three
years last quarter as Europe's budget crisis roiled markets, driving up
yield premiums, while the nation's banks
used record term deposits to cut debt offerings.
Using Robert Shiller's monthly data for U.S. stock market returns, associated P / E10, short - term bill
yields (six - month commercial paper / one -
year U.S. Treasury notes) and long - term
bond yields (10 -
year U.S. Treasury notes or equivalent) during 1871 through 2013, they find that: Keep Reading
Using monthly levels of Moody's
yield on seasoned Aaa corporate
bonds and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) during October 1928 through February 2018 (about 90
years) and monthly levels of the 10 -
year government
bond interest rate and the stock market from Robert Shiller during January 1871 through February 2018 (about 148
years), we find that: Keep Reading
Before, we
used the
yield on the 30 -
year Treasury
Bond.
We
used the Yahoo! Finance
Bonds Center (finance.yahoo.com/
bonds) as our source for the five -
year AAA corporate
bond yield.
Note that for my Sharpe ratio, I
used a risk - free rate of return of 2 % as a proxy for the average US 10 -
year bond yield over the past 5
years.
The importance of the 10 -
year Treasury
bond yield goes beyond the return on the instrument as it is
used as a proxy for many other important financial matters, such as mortgages and investor confidence.
Using the five -
year Treasury as and the S&P 500 my proxies,
bond yields have exceeded earnings
yields by as much as 8 % in the mid -»50s, while earnings
yields have exceeded
bond yields by more than 4 % in 1981, 1984 and 1987.
Using the 10 -
year U.S. Treasury
Bond yield as the proxy for interest rates, Exhibit 1 shows the historical performance of the S&P 500 Low Volatility and S&P 500 indices in periods of significantly increased interest rates.
You could choose high -
yielding Canadian stocks like the banks or BCE or just
use 2 -
year GICs or a short - term
bond ETF like the Vanguard Canadian Short - Term Bond ETF (VSB / T
bond ETF like the Vanguard Canadian Short - Term
Bond ETF (VSB / T
Bond ETF (VSB / TSX).
We also
use high
yield corporate
bonds and that's generally been a very strong performer but it did slip within the 3rd quarter and, for the
year to date, high
yield corporate
bonds are down 3.7 %.
To estimate the probability of a recession, we
use a probit model, which relates the probability of being in a recession six months ahead to the
yield curve spread — the difference between the ten -
year government
bond yields and the three - month Treasury bill rate.
This
year investors who followed the MFIP were led to shorten maturities (therefore lowering their interest - rate risk) and also to
use higher -
yielding corporate
bonds rather than Treasuries or mortgage - backed securities (thereby keeping lower duration and less interest - rate risk).
When you calculate EPS / Price
yield are you
using trailing earnings and is the AAA
bond yield a 30 -
year maturity?
At quarter - end,
using Morningstar data, our Total Return
Bond Fund, Institutional High
Yield Bond, Federated
Bond and Ultrashort
Bond were all in the top quartile for trailing three
years.
The ETFs
used in the screen were EEM (emerging markets), EFA (EAFE Index), GLD (gold), HYG (high
yield bond), IEF (7 - 10
year treasury), SHY (short - term
bond, close ETF substitute for «cash»), SPY (S&P 500), TLT (20 +
year treasury
bond), VBR (small - cap value), VNQ (REIT), XLE (energy sector), XLU (utility sector), and PCY (Emerging market
bonds).
Corporate
bonds offer additional
yield, and the iShares 1 - 5
Year Laddered Corporate
Bond (CBO)
uses a time - honoured strategy to smooth out interest rate risk: it holds one fifth of its portfolio in five different «rungs,» with maturities of one to five
years.
The Barclays Capital High
Yield Very Liquid Index includes publicly issued U.S. dollar denominated, non-investment grade, fixed - rate, taxable corporate bonds that have a remaining maturity of at least one year, regardless of optionality, are rated high - yield (Ba1 / BB + / BB + or below) using the middle rating of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, respectively (before July 1, 2005, the lower of Moody's and S&P was used), and have $ 600 million or more of outstanding face v
Yield Very Liquid Index includes publicly issued U.S. dollar denominated, non-investment grade, fixed - rate, taxable corporate
bonds that have a remaining maturity of at least one
year, regardless of optionality, are rated high -
yield (Ba1 / BB + / BB + or below) using the middle rating of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, respectively (before July 1, 2005, the lower of Moody's and S&P was used), and have $ 600 million or more of outstanding face v
yield (Ba1 / BB + / BB + or below)
using the middle rating of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, respectively (before July 1, 2005, the lower of Moody's and S&P was
used), and have $ 600 million or more of outstanding face value.
For the purpose of calculating the Step - up Coupon rates for Savings
Bonds, the 1, 2, 5 and 10 -
year benchmark SGS
yields are
used as reference.
As shown in this graph
using the 10 -
year U.S. government
bond, historically there has been a nearly one - to - one relationship between the starting
bond yield and the subsequent total
bond returns in the next 10
years.
These sheets calculate the (annual) figures for: • Accrued interest that needs to be returned to the seller after settlement • Net
bond basis • Original discount or premium • Annual (pro-rated) amortization of
bond premium
using both Constant
Yield and Straight Line amortization, as required by the IRS • End - of -
year basis • Annual coupons • Estimates of taxes due on coupons • Estimates of differences in taxes paid vs. not amortizing premiums • Capital loss or gain upon sale before maturity
The Index includes publicly issued U.S. dollar denominated, non-investment grade, fixed - rate, taxable corporate
bonds that have a remaining maturity of at least one
year, but not more than fifteen
years, regardless of optionality; are rated high -
yield (Ba1 / BB + / BB + or below)
using the middle rating of Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Fitch Inc., or Standard & Poor's Financial Services, LLC, respectively; and have $ 500 million or more of outstanding face value.