Not exact matches
Buoyed by uncommonly low
interest rates, the industry has boasted of double - digit
returns; the past few
years, at least anecdotally, have been especially rich.
Private firms like Amur have proliferated in the past few
years, which is hardly a surprise, given that Canada's stubbornly low
interest rates have pushed investors into alternative asset classes, and residential real estate has generated stunning
returns for investors and homeowners alike.
Private equity
returns remained strong but were lower than the prior
year quarter, while income from our fixed income investment portfolio increased due to a higher average level of fixed maturity investments and higher short - term
interest rates.
U.S.
interest rates are currently much higher than in Europe and Japan, and with neither the European Central Bank nor the Bank of Japan planning any
rate hikes this
year, foreign capital seeking higher
returns could put a lid on
rate rises here.
Over the past few
years, public pensions including California Public Employee's Retirement System (CalPERs) and California State Teacher's Retirement System (Calstrs)-- the largest in the country by assets — have posting mediocre
returns due to low
interest rates and growing retirement obligations.
Elevated valuations, low volatility and secularly low
interest rates are unlikely to be allies for robust financial market
returns over the next five
years,» the fund company cautioned in its report.
While at the beginning of 2011 trading in euro - dollar futures was still foreseeing a
return to typical
interest rates over the next few
years, that view has given way to expectations that
rates will remain low for a decade to come.
Using the federal student loan
interest rate of 4.6 percent and assuming 2 percent income growth annually and investment
returns of 5 percent a
year, they could see how much millennials could save.
High
interest rates lead to higher equity
returns 10
years out.
If you look at a 10 -
year forward basis, lower
interest rates lead to lower equity
returns.
Given that U.S. short - term
interest rates are stuck at zero, and are likely to remain unusually low for some time even if the Federal Reserve starts to raise
rates later this
year,
return for cash this
year is almost certain to be negative.
All told, we see another coupon - driven
year for high yield with total
returns of about 6 % possible as spreads tighten in line with anticipated modest increases in
interest rates.
I like the idea of having gold for inflation risk and long - term treasuries for deflation but I can envision a future where
interest rates and inflation remain low for
years which would be bad for
returns on both.
Without last
year's
interest rate cuts, it would have taken much longer to have inflation
return to target.
What we have really seen over the past several
years, in terms of the appreciation of markets and the decline of
interest rates based on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of investors in bonds and stocks to earn an adequate
return relative to their expected liabilities.
The reality is that one doesn't need
interest rates reasonably estimate 10 -
year prospective market
returns, just as one doesn't need
interest rates to calculate that a $ 100 expected payment in 10
years, at a current price of $ 65, will result in an expected total
return of 4.4 % over the coming decade.
In fact, the sentiment is so heavily skewed towards deflation, low growth and low
interest rates forever right now that an unexpected rise in inflation in the coming
years could lead to great
returns in commodities for a time.
What's actually true is that yield - seeking speculation in response to quantitative easing and zero -
interest rate policies has elevated current valuations, giving investors
returns (at least on paper) that they would have waited many more
years to accrue.
People are saying the markets are expensive right now but if
interest rates stay low for the foreseeable future (10 - 15
years) there's still a reasonable expected
return.
«The energy sector posted stronger
returns in September due to a rebound in oil prices which helped lift Canadian equities, while the bond market slipped into negative territory after strong Canadian economic growth led the Bank of Canada to raise
interest rates for the first time in seven
years,» said James Rausch, Head of Client Coverage, Canada, RBC Investor & Treasury Services.
For much of the past two
years, the discounts offered by automakers have remained at levels that industry analysts say are unsustainable and unhealthy in the long term... Sales are expected to drop further in 2018 as
interest rates rise and more late - model used cars
return to dealer lots to compete with new ones.
The reason why valuations are so tightly correlated with 10 - 12
year returns is that extreme deviations from historical norms tend to wash out over that horizon, and because
interest rate fluctuations have a much less durable impact on market valuations than investors imagine.
After
years of quantitative easing and rock bottom
interest rates, inflation is finally
returning to advanced industrialized economies.
As usual, we need not make specific
interest rate forecasts - the fact that prevailing valuations and market action are unfavorable is sufficient to hold the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a relatively muted duration of about 2
years, largely in Treasury inflation - protected securities.
Now, if negative 10 - 12
year total
returns on stocks are acceptable to Wall Street, given the level of
interest rates, that's fine, but investors should understand that this is what's being argued, and that the level of
interest rates doesn't change that expectation.
So investors might have believed that the extraordinarily depressed market valuations of 1974 and 1982 were «justified» by recession and high
interest rates, but that did nothing to prevent the S&P 500 from enjoying remarkably high
returns in subsequent
years.
Although Wall Street continues to assert that valuations are «reasonable given the level of
interest rates,» keep in mind that the most reliable measures of valuation imply negative 10 - 12
year total
returns for the S&P 500.
My current 15
year mortgage
rate is 2.625 % and I am able to deduce the
interest and I am getting a much higher
return on my money elsewhere.
The question arises - if indeed we experience a period of rising
interest rates or low and stagnant
interest rates in the
years ahead, how could we position ourselves to achieve anything but similarly low
returns?
We allow that short - term
interest rates may be pegged well below historical norms for several more
years, and we know that for every
year that short - term
interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level of 4 %), one can «justify» equity valuations about 4 % above historical norms — a premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future stock
returns.
They form hedge portfolios from extreme fourths (quartiles) of ranked currencies, rebalanced annually at
year end, and calculate
returns in excess of short - term
interest rates.
Chapter 5 — Inflation,
Interest Rates and Bill Returns examines inflation and interest rates across 16 countries for 101 years from 1900
Interest Rates and Bill Returns examines inflation and interest rates across 16 countries for 101 years from 1900 to
Rates and Bill
Returns examines inflation and
interest rates across 16 countries for 101 years from 1900
interest rates across 16 countries for 101 years from 1900 to
rates across 16 countries for 101
years from 1900 to 2000.
The Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to hold a portfolio duration of about 6
years, meaning that a 1 % (100 basis point) change in
interest rates would induce a roughly 6 % change in the value of the Fund.
With the #Fed predicted to raise
interest rates further this
year - stock market
returns have been historically higher when
interest rates are higher (inflation adjusted).
Strategic Total
Return continues to carry a duration of about 3.5
years in Treasury securities (meaning that a 100 basis point move in
interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by about 3.5 % on the basis of bond price fluctuations), and holds about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
Historically, those
interest rate and nominal growth effects have largely offset, which is why Market Cap / GVA has been reliably correlated with actual 10 -
year S&P 500 nominal total
returns regardless of the prevailing level of
interest rates.
At the annual shareholders meeting this
year, Buffett explained that he thought Berkshire Hathaway's intrinsic value grew at an average annual
rate of about 10 % over the last decade, but he warned that future
returns would be lower if
interest rates remained near generational lows.
Freddie Mac says the typical loan is now paid off after just 6.1
years, and that raises an
interesting idea: Since lenders don't like fixed -
rate long - term loans — they worry that they'll be stuck with low
returns — maybe they would prefer to finance with a shorter term, say seven
years or 10
years.
With economic growth
returning to the developed world, the end of
years of quantitative easing and easy monetary policy is in view; inflation concerns are reviving, guaranteeing rising
interest rates along with tightening liquidity.
With
interest rates still hovering near the lowest levels they've ever been in 5,000 +
years of recorded human history, it's very difficult to achieve a significant investment
return without taking on substantial risk.
In the past few
years, investors have taken this theory to heart, believing that perpetually slow economic growth, low
interest rates and subpar investment
returns are inevitable.
In low
interest rate markets, like the past 10 -
years, CDs are less enticing because
returns are miniscule.
Short term
interest rates remain near zero, 10 -
year bond yields have declined below 2 %, and our estimate of 10 -
year S&P 500 total
returns has declined to just 1.4 % (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these historically - reliable estimates).
This is slightly higher than investing when stocks are richly priced and with no concern for the level of
interest rates, but it is still significantly less than the long - term average seven
year -
return.
Their
return on the investment in the $ 100 above what they paid, plus the same
interest rate payment ($ 50 per
year) as was originally agreed.
While the prospect of higher
interest rates will keep investors on edge, it's not like we're
returning to double - digit levels or the Fed is moving its terminal rate.So even the uptick in ten -
year yields to 3 % or even 3.25 % is unlikely to kill the equity market rally as the benefits from fiscal stimulus should continue to feed through the markets.
For now, the Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a limited duration of about 2
years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in
interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by about 2 % on the basis of bond price fluctuations), mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
A mix of stocks and FIAs modeled under
interest rate scenarios of up to 3 percent increase over a three -
year period, generate higher
returns compared with the more traditional 60/40 stock and bond portfolio.
One factor supporting the Australian dollar over the past couple of
years has been that
interest rates right across the yield curve in Australia, and perceived
returns on other assets, have been higher than those in a number of other countries, particularly those which experienced a recession and a collapse of share prices in the early part of this decade.
But if
interest rates increase, it'll be a wide moat stock on a trajectory to
return an excellent 10 % a
year.