After 30
years of declining interest rates, bond investors are beginning to worry that rates will go higher — especially after the events of May 2013.
Not exact matches
The
decline is noteworthy because you'd think the stars were aligned for a boom in the construction
of dream homes: the economy has been churning out jobs steadily for a
year, real - estate prices are high, and
interest rates are low.
Before policymakers and pundits conclude that the rise in student loans is the cause
of the
decline in rates
of entrepreneurship among millennials — and decide that debt relief is the way to boost entrepreneurial activity among young people today — they should consider that waning
interest in entrepreneurship predates the student loan crisis by many
years.
A Federal Reserve working paper from last
year found that at least three - quarters
of the
decline in new charters is attributable to the weak economy and low
interest rates.
Progress in a few areas has been solid: slashing
of bureaucratic red tape has led to a surge in new private businesses; full liberalization
of interest rates seems likely following the introduction
of bank deposit insurance in May; Rmb 2 trillion (US$ 325 billion)
of local government debt is being sensibly restructured into long - term bonds; tighter environmental regulation and more stringent resource taxes have contributed to a surprising two -
year decline in China's consumption
of coal.
Treasuries extended
declines from October, pushing 10 -
year yields to a five - week high, as the probability
of a Federal Reserve
interest - rate increase by
year - end hovered near 50 percent.
Its nine - month earnings before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization have
declined to $ 431 million at the end
of September from $ 493 million a
year earlier.
Therefore we expect the
decline in
interest rate futures, specifically the 10 -
year Treasury Notes and 30 -
year Treasury Bonds to be a temporary effect
of speculative exuberance, and for
interest rate futures to rally through the end
of the month as the heavily short speculators are forced out
of their positions.
What we have really seen over the past several
years, in terms
of the appreciation
of markets and the
decline of interest rates based on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility
of investors in bonds and stocks to earn an adequate return relative to their expected liabilities.
One
of the
interesting features
of the employment picture is that, after hitting a record high last
year, the percentage
of Americans in the labor force has begun to
decline.
We could take the $ 16 billion we have in cash earning 1.5 % and invest it in 20 -
year bonds earning 5 % and increase our current earnings a lot, but we're betting that we can find a good place to invest this cash and don't want to take the risk
of principal loss
of long - term bonds [if
interest rates rise, the value
of 20 -
year bonds will
decline].»
If
interest rate expectations many
years forward have fallen, then expectations about the permanent level
of interest income should have
declined as well.
The principal
of the bond would
decline by 43 %, which would swamp the 14 %
interest income received over five
years, leaving a total loss
of 29 %.
Suppose that over the first 10
years of your holding period,
interest rates
decline, and the yield - to - maturity on your bond falls to 7 %.
The IMF cited the rapid
decline in the average coverage ratio over the past two
years — the ability
of current earnings to cover
interest payments — as its primary evidence.
Over the first six weeks
of the
year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
declined 10 %, as the prospect
of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a slump in oil prices, and concerns about economic conditions in Europe and China caused the long - running bull market to stumble.
The most recent and thorough
of these, by Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith at the Bank
of England, concluded that for the industrial world, neutral real
interest rates have
declined by about 4.5 percentage points over the last 30
years and are likely to stay low in the future.
Short term
interest rates remain near zero, 10 -
year bond yields have
declined below 2 %, and our estimate
of 10 -
year S&P 500 total returns has
declined to just 1.4 % (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these historically - reliable estimates).
Why pay a higher rate when the average length
of homeownership is 7
years and
interest rates are in a structural
decline?
The way that
interest rates gradually turned upward over several
years despite the relentless downward pressure applied by the central bank suggests that we are dealing with the end
of a very long - term
decline.
The increase over the past
year has continued to be held down by
declines in mortgage
interest charges, the last
of which occurred in the September quarter 1997.
The
decline in world
interest rates over the past few
years has seen the servicing burden
of foreign debt fall to around the levels
of the early 1980s.
Because prospective 12 -
year annual market returns have never failed to reach at least 8 % by the completion
of a market cycle, regardless
of the level
of interest rates, we view a 40 % market
decline as a rather minimal target over the completion
of this market cycle.
Profits after
interest have tended to
decline over the past couple
of years, reflecting the impact
of the 1994
interest rate increases and a tendency for corporate leverage to increase, but they remain at high levels compared with historical averages; they can be expected to receive a further modest boost as
interest - rate reductions in the second half
of last
year begin to feed through into profit results.
Many
of these organizations, including religious organizations, have been experiencing
declining interest in recent
years.
Mr Murphy said his position in the coming financial
year depended upon the
decline in the price
of other variables, including grain and fertilisers, as well as lowered bank
interest on the farm mortgage.
«The American Millstone» series in The Tribune is very
interesting but nothing very new for one who had lived in the Garfield Park area a good number
of years and watched its
decline and fall.
Interest rates in the eighties tended to be much higher than over the past decade, although it's worth remembering, when Labour boasts of kickstarting interest - rate stability, that the trend of decline from double - digit rates started in 1992, four - and - a-half years before the party came t
Interest rates in the eighties tended to be much higher than over the past decade, although it's worth remembering, when Labour boasts
of kickstarting
interest - rate stability, that the trend of decline from double - digit rates started in 1992, four - and - a-half years before the party came t
interest - rate stability, that the trend
of decline from double - digit rates started in 1992, four - and - a-half
years before the party came to power.
According to the agency, the number
of Japanese in their twenties with an
interest in science has been
declining in recent
years, and the proportion
of school leavers applying to study science and engineering at university has been falling since the late 1980s.
There's something like 80 million people in the U.S. according the recent surveys that are
interested in birds in one way or another, you know, feed birds or watch birds, take their kids to a wildlife refuge and yet we keep hearing about more and more reports
of declines in birds, you know, doubling
of the extinction rates in birds globally in the last 50
years and right now we are on the verge
of what I call the third renaissance
of bird conservation, first being the Audubon movement at the turn
of the century, the second being the Rachel Carson movement
of the»60s and third we are on the verge
of it right now.
Overall, vitamin and mineral content
of American fruits and vegetables has
declined significantly during the last fifty
years.4 The revival
of interest in compost and natural fertilizers, rich in minerals including trace minerals, is due in part to the realization that healthy soil is the basis
of health for all life forms.
Aided by the palettes
of cinematographer Dick Pope, Leigh crafts an environment that conveys the ebb and flow
of Turner's life, from his most successful period in the 1830s through the
decline of public
interest in the
years leading up to his death in 1851.
Five
years ago, ICT lacked support and
interest at Rendcombe, with the number
of pupils taking the subject in
decline.
Winner: Rendcomb College Five
years ago, ICT lacked support and
interest at Rendcombe, with the number
of pupils taking the subject in
decline.
Unfortunately, over the past 20
years, there has been a significant
decline in the percentage
of high school students who find school to be meaningful and
interesting and in the percentage who view school learning as important to their future lives.
The google trend graph for instructional design, the term and field
of study, would seem to indicate that
interest has
declined steadily over the last 12
years.
The
decline in the number
of students
interested in an education career is even more striking given the fact that the total number
of ACT - tested graduates has increased substantially — up by 18 percent — during the same four -
year period.
As the professional staff
of the Census Bureau indicates, the «
decline since 1965 in the cumulative fertility
of women 25 to 29 is
of special
interest because women
of that age are far enough along in their childbearing to conclude that women currently
of this age most likely will reach age 45 or the end
of childbearing with fewer children than the women who were 35 - 39
years old in 1969.»
Such statements reflect the current views
of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome
of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the general economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or
declining sales and net income due to various factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects
of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels
of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction
of the device business, including possible reduction in sales
of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels
of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate
of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher
interest rates, the performance
of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success
of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews
of strategic alternatives and the potential separation
of the Company's businesses, the risk that the transactions with Microsoft and Pearson do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess
of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution
of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion contemplated by the relationship with Microsoft, including that it is not successful or is delayed, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Microsoft and Pearson commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing
of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits
of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside
of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
Another
interesting note: total adult print sales
declined by $ 44.3 M from last
year, while e-books made up most
of the difference, increasing $ 38.0 M.
Such statements reflect the current views
of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome
of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the effect
of the proposed separation
of NOOK Media, the general economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or
declining sales and net income due to various factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects
of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels
of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction
of the device business, including possible reduction in sales
of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels
of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate
of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher
interest rates, the performance
of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success
of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, risks associated with the commercial agreement with Samsung, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews
of strategic alternatives and the potential separation
of the Company's businesses (including with respect to the timing
of the completion thereof), the risk that the transactions with Pearson and Samsung do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess
of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution
of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion previously undertaken, including any risks associated with a reduction
of international operations following termination
of the Microsoft commercial agreement, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Pearson and Samsung commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, the risks associated with the termination
of Microsoft commercial agreement, including potential customer losses, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing
of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits
of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside
of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal
year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
All else equal, annuity payments are smaller when
interest rates are low as is the case today (which no doubt accounts for the fact that immediate annuity sales have been
declining lately, falling almost 20 % the first half
of this
year).
Take Advantage
of Lower Rates With FHA Streamline Refinance While the streamline refinance has been available for many
years, the recent
decline in mortgage rates has sparked the
interest of many existing homeowners.
The principal
of the bond would
decline by 43 %, which would swamp the 14 %
interest income received over five
years, leaving a total loss
of 29 %.
And second question — how do you protect against the possibility, yes its still a possibility that should at least be acknowledged, that
interest rates will continue downwards and continue the decades long trend
of interest rates
declining (some might even say its a much longer trend if you look at historical
interest rates over 100 +
years).
Despite the relatively positive returns for many asset classes in recent
years, the
decline in
interest rates has proven to be a large impediment to restoring the funded status
of pension plans to pre-crisis levels.»
Dividends
of mortgage REITs have
declined substantially over the last two
years as companies adjusted their dividend payouts in light
of higher
interest rate volatility and lower earnings forecasts.
However, if the homeowner pays one additional monthly payment per
year, the total
interest paid
declines to $ 249,000, a difference
of $ 70,000.
Return
of the Stockpickers The primary distinguishing economic trend
of the past 30
years is,
of course, a steady
decline in
interest rates, until the federal - funds rate sank to about zero — and stayed there for five
years.
If we look at UTV's recent history, they went on an acquisition spree about 5 - 6
years ago, and are still paying the price... EPS
declined from GBP 23.08 p in 2006 to the most recent FY
of 16.7 p — reflecting an increased
interest bill plus a painfully dilutive rights issue, rather than significantly poorer performance.